How much should we be talking about Donovan?

[NAOS]

I’ve kinda said all along this is where I expected but the up and down nature and DMs disappointing start are the cause for concern.

The defense seems to be right again (most nights). So I think we can get back out second half mojo.

I’m slightly concerned on DM but still have faith in him. I just hope he’s not one of those guys who’s shot looks great but it never goes in as much as you think it should. I’d love to see how he looks if you surrounded him with shooting. I can’t tell if it’s purely a DM problem... a space problem... and it’s likely a little of both.

I’d love for DM to study Derozan. DM seems to have a good initial move but guys catch up or come to help... he needs the secondary spin move or pump fake instead of putting up a floater.

It’s definitely a little bit of both.... but I’m starting to wonder if it isn’t 70/30 Donovan. Maybe he’s banged up. But he’s making a lot of bad decisions when spacing isn’t the issue. Maybe he’s got a bit of the Rodney Hoods.

He needs the All-Star break to get here.

I think he’ll be fine. I wouldn’t be typing this at all if JFC weren’t awash with dudes pointing fingers everywhere else while claiming they’re woke.

 

[str8line]

Eh... I think he needs to play more and think less. I think he needs to kick it out more but that hasn’t been a recipe for success this season thus far. Specifying a certain number of assists is not what coaches do.

I think he’s willing to pass... I think that first unit lacks shooting and creation which is rough for a guy who is good but still needs to refine his game.

Of course you're right on specifying numbers but I think now is the time to reign in Donovan. No more chucking... for now. Let Don know you still have faith in him but for a bit we're going to have his emphasis be playmaking. Live or die with someone(s) other than Donovan.

 

[str8line]

Strange thing on DM... 1st and 4th quarters he's not good. Shoots 35/25 in Q1 and 38/25 in Q4. Compared to 46/36 in Q2 and 45/36 in Q3.

The Q4 stuff makes sense to me... since we force feed him and the offense stagnates... he was good last year though. The slow starts are somewhat puzzling but starting lineup spacing issues might be part of the problem.

Not sure what to make of it or if it's just random and there is nothing to it.

In the first he's warming up his battered body.

 

[fishonjazz]

Donovan & Ricky for us

What does this tell me?

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[fishonjazz]

It's not our offense it's our players. Our opponents want Don and Ricky shooting because they suck at it.

I think what he was saying is that if our offense is doing what the defense wants us to do then that isn't good offense. The defense is dictating. I think he probably thinks a good offense would get open shots for our players who don't suck at shooting.

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[Handlogten's Heros]

It’s definitely a little bit of both.... but I’m starting to wonder if it isn’t 70/30 Donovan. Maybe he’s banged up. But he’s making a lot of bad decisions when spacing isn’t the issue. Maybe he’s got a bit of the Rodney Hoods.

He needs the All-Star break to get here.

I think he’ll be fine. I wouldn’t be typing this at all if JFC weren’t awash with dudes pointing fingers everywhere else while claiming they’re woke.

To speak to your reads thing... he misses guys on the perimeter and gets too far in the paint and pukes up a shot or the ball too often. I agree it is likely a lot of DM, but not completely.

If there was another creator or more space I think maybe he forces less. I think he works it out... the spot up shooting at very least should creep up to where it was last year.

 

[str8line]

I think what he was saying is that if our offense is doing what the defense wants us to do then that isn't good offense. The defense is dictating. I think he probably thinks a good offense would get open shots for our players who don't suck at shooting.

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Too bad BOTH our PG and SG are shooting us out of games. Cutting out two of our starters(especially the 1 and 2) from the offensive equation won't work. Maybe we should give DMX a try right away.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Of course you're right on specifying numbers but I think now is the time to reign in Donovan. No more chucking... for now. Let Don know you still have faith in him but for a bit we're going to have his emphasis be playmaking. Live or die with someone(s) other than Donovan.

Problem is who? Joe seems tired... Ricky ain't it. DM has to create for himself or others. We need some personnel changes before I can condone telling DM to chill. It's as simple as weeding out one or two bad shots a night and not making the one extra bad turnover and I think he will return to similar numbers as the prior year.

It's a bit puzzling, but we don't have many answers to our creation problem on the roster. I think if we throw too much at Dante we'd have the same issue.

Long term we have some personnel issues to fix... I am doubtful we make the change this year... think it's an offseason thing. I still think we make the playoffs if healthy, but switching out a part or two for a better fitting or better quality part would be pretty life changing for us.

 

[str8line]

Problem is who? Joe seems tired... Ricky ain't it. DM has to create for himself or others. We need some personnel changes before I can condone telling DM to chill. It's as simple as weeding out one or two bad shots a night and not making the one extra bad turnover and I think he will return to similar numbers as the prior year.

It's a bit puzzling, but we don't have many answers to our creation problem on the roster. I think if we throw too much at Dante we'd have the same issue.

Long term we have some personnel issues to fix... I am doubtful we make the change this year... think it's an offseason thing. I still think we make the playoffs if healthy, but switching out a part or two for a better fitting or better quality part would be pretty life changing for us.

Honestly I think we give Dante the start over Ricky. Ricky is gone anyways, why not get started on our future? I'm not worried about throwing too much at Dante. His TO rate alone would go a long ways toward an improvement. And I think we strike while Dante is hot. His aggressiveness lately screams for a chance to start.

 

[Jazz]

Wouldn't it be weird if Dante ended up being a better player than Donovan? As much of a rollercoaster ride as Dante has been you can't deny his speed and ability to get to the rim lately. I think it's possible he might be on the cusp of being a 20 PPG guy.

Definitely a chance he's ends up better. Donovan relies so much on his jump shot. And Donovan is only athletic when no one is around. Otherwise he plays below the ring and he's not that fast either.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Honestly I think we give Dante the start over Ricky. Ricky is gone anyways, why not get started on our future? I'm not worried about throwing too much at Dante. His TO rate alone would go a long ways toward an improvement. And I think we strike while Dante is hot. His aggressiveness lately screams for a chance to start.

We'd need another solid option at PG imo so my preferred order of operations would be to move Ricky then commit to starting Dante. Let Dante continue to build confidence in his current role for now.

 

[carolinajazz]

I think Mitchell needs to come off the bench. When starts and begins with forcing shots, we end up behind and having to play catch up the rest of the game. Better to work for good shots to start out with, get a lead, and then bring Mitchell in and hope he doesn't go berserkawitz by playing out of control and shoot us out of the lead!

 

[Sandman822]

What does this tell me?

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That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPS since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

 

[Dali]

That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPP since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

Very nice explanation.

 

[Sandman822]

Look at their remaining schedule. There are home games but that hasn’t been their saving grace this year and there are still a lot of games against decent teams they haven’t proven they can consistently beat.

While true to a degree I also think there's some noise in their home game record so far simply because of how many times they played one or two home games in between week long road trips all over the place. They've also had tough opponents coming in fairly often as the SOS would suggest.

To put it in perspective here's the upcoming 12 home games left before ASB

Magic
Lakers
Bulls (B2B)
Pistons
Cavs
Blazers
Nuggets
Timberwolves
Hawks
Rockets
Suns
Spurs

To me at least 7 of those should be wins (Magic, Bulls, Pistons, Cavs, Blazers, Hawks, Suns), we will be favourites with the bookies against a few more of those teams (Lakers, Timberwolves, Spurs), and we can absolutely compete with the Nuggets and Rockets at home. Mitchell has played some of his better games all season against the Rockets for example.

Knowing how inconsistent the Jazz have been this season they'll probably drop a game they should win but still, there's a real opportunity to start piling up some wins in January/February at home.

 

[Alfalfa]

Given how much attention Mitchell's drives get, and how high his usage is, he should be averaging 6+ assists per game. If he drove with the idea that he either gets a good shot or passes it to an open man, his game would be improve a lot, and so would the Jazz' prospects as a team. Smashing into a wall of defenders and throwing a prayer, or worse, lazily taking a contested off the dribble 3 with 20 seconds left on the clock (like he's Steph Curry or some ****), gets us nowhere.

I don't know he can make the mental adjustment mid-season, but I sure hope so. Because I don't think there's anything wrong with his game from a technical/physical stand point (for a player of his experience level).

 

[magic]

What does this tell me?

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It's saying that our top 2 shooters average less than one point per shot taken. And the bar chart purposely starts the average at ONE to make it seem as if our top two shooters average zero points.

If they started the chart at 0 points-per-shot average, it wouldn't stand out as much, and it would be more difficult for some to tell that our top two shooters in terms of shots taken, Ricky and Donovan, have horrendous FG%.

 

[mellow]

I would be interested to hear Quin coach a few practices with the Jazz, particularly when a new player is being introduced. From what I pieced together he wants his players to shoot open shots from certain places even if the players aren't hitting them at a great%.

Maybe an average offense creates open looks, and a good offense creates open looks in ideal locations, and a great offense creates open looks in ideal locations for the player most likely to make it.
As Lindsey said, the Jazz are decidedly average.

 

[Dali]

It's saying that our top 2 shooters average less than one point per shot taken. And the bar chart purposely starts the average at ONE to make it seem as if our top two shooters average zero points.

If they started the chart at 0 points-per-shot average, it wouldn't stand out as much, and it would be more difficult for some to tell that our top two shooters in terms of shots taken, Ricky and Donovan, have horrendous FG%.

Even if the chart started at zero you would still see the discrepancy, and just how inefficient our 2 top shot takers are. We are below the Knicks in the red bar, the worst team in the NBA. It show that the team has been carrying these two for the most part. Jae, Derrick and Rudy carried them last night.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Given how much attention Mitchell's drives get, and how high his usage is, he should be averaging 6+ assists per game. If he drove with the idea that he either gets a good shot or passes it to an open man, his game would be improve a lot, and so would the Jazz' prospects as a team. Smashing into a wall of defenders and throwing a prayer, or worse, lazily taking a contested off the dribble 3 with 20 seconds left on the clock (like he's Steph Curry or some ****), gets us nowhere.

I don't know he can make the mental adjustment mid-season, but I sure hope so. Because I don't think there's anything wrong with his game from a technical/physical stand point (for a player of his experience level).

I think if we adjust and make him a passer on those drives we have to put more shooters on the floor with him. Most of his drives he has Favs in the corner... Rudy in the dunkers spot or rolling... the only guy you can't help off of and recover to is Joe and he doesn't have the quickest release so you might still be able to reach in and recover.

It will be curious to see if we make changes by the deadline. I've seen enough to know that the current starting lineup works but is limited... ready for a changeup but it takes two to tango on a trade and Favs/Ricky are both solid... so can't make a move from solid to just bad to say "see we changed things". If DM can't make the reads with more space or can't be more effecient with more creation on the floor then you really have to evaluate what that means for our team/roster construction long term.