Predict the Rudy Gobert trade

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The whole point is it is going to be a bad contract in 2-3 years.

If you're a team building your offense around Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, Lebron James or Steph Curry, you don't care what Rudy's contract looks like in 3 years. You want to compete in the playoffs while you still have a window to do so. And even if not, it's better to pay $40M for a perennial All Star and DPOY than to pay the same money to three other average guys. The goal in basketball is to put the best 5 guys on the floor you can.

Besides, there are rumors that the next round of TV contracts will raise the salary cap in a few years and make Rudy's contract look palatable.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We won 49 in a complete ******** of a year, last year we were on 60 win pace. The year before that we were on 50 something win pace. We've been in that general range for ages. Practically since Rudy appeared as our best player.

Atlanta's biggest problem is their defense and this is precisely what Rudy will fix. They have good players throughout the roster and they have a superstar offensive creator who will fit like a glove with Rudy. I have very little doubts that Rudy will massively help them in the win collumn. Now will it be 50 or 55 or 60, who knows... this is contingent on a lot of other factors but he will definitely raise their level.

My point was that a strict swap between Capela+Collins for Rudy is the same money, but vastly different outcomes. Add in Hunter and the Hawks are still better with Rudy, but they would end up paying a hell of a lot more for those 3 combined than Rudy.

So I think maybe the biggest disconnect may be on the Atlanta side. I think they view themselves as a conference finals team and they are really much more a fringe playoff team. So they may be thinking about the playoff flexibility of having Capela, Collins, Hunter vs. Rudy instead of thinking about actually getting there.

They also have Okongwu and so adding Rudy at a premium over Capela may be viewed as being short sighted. It depends on what they can get for Collins separately as well. Maybe they swing a Jerami Grant deal or something and think Capela, Okongwu, Grant will provide better defense and some additional flexibility.

Its hard to put yourselves in their shoes, but if they realized Trae Young is going to have some limitations in the playoffs anyway so why not kill it in the regular season.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If you're a team building your offense around Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, Lebron James or Steph Curry, you don't care what Rudy's contract looks like in 3 years. You want to compete in the playoffs while you still have a window to do so. And even if not, it's better to pay $40M for a perennial All Star and DPOY than to pay the same money to three other average guys. The goal in basketball is to put the best 5 guys on the floor you can.

Besides, there are rumors that the next round of TV contracts will raise the salary cap in a few years and make Rudy's contract look palatable.

Rudy isn’t getting traded to any teams with those players though. Also, the contract may look palatable if he’s putting up the same production. L

 

[KqWIN]

So I think maybe the biggest disconnect may be on the Atlanta side. I think they view themselves as a conference finals team and they are really much more a fringe playoff team. So they may be thinking about the playoff flexibility of having Capela, Collins, Hunter vs. Rudy instead of thinking about actually getting there.

They also have Okongwu and so adding Rudy at a premium over Capela may be viewed as being short sighted. It depends on what they can get for Collins separately as well. Maybe they swing a Jerami Grant deal or something and think Capela, Okongwu, Grant will provide better defense and some additional flexibility.

Its hard to put yourselves in their shoes, but if they realized Trae Young is going to have some limitations in the playoffs anyway so why not kill it in the regular season.

I think ATL is just the most clear example, even if they might think so themselves, of a team that Rudy would seriously elevate. It does seem like they have a lot of belief in their squad because they beat PHI (Ben Simmons special), but I think it really carries to other teams as well. If the argument against Rudy is his contract, what are these other teams doing with that money? Do they even have cap space? Rudy is absolutely going to help any of these teams. DAL, ATL, CHO, CHI, TOR....they could all use Rudy. And we should get value for that. I'm just not buying that Rudy is a terrible contract when these teams would give him this contract in a milisecond if they could.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think ATL is just the most clear example, even if they might think so themselves, of a team that Rudy would seriously elevate. It does seem like they have a lot of belief in their squad because they beat PHI (Ben Simmons special), but I think it really carries to other teams as well. If the argument against Rudy is his contract, what are these other teams doing with that money? Do they even have cap space? Rudy is absolutely going to help any of these teams. DAL, ATL, CHO, CHI, TOR....they could all use Rudy. And we should get value for that. I'm just not buying that Rudy is a terrible contract when these teams would give him this contract in a milisecond if they could.

Dude for the last time his contract now is fine but when he is 32 and 33 getting paid 44M and 47M that’s when it won’t be fine.

 

[Hornacekamania]

Dude for the last time his contract now is fine but when he is 32 and 33 getting paid 44M and 47M that’s when it won’t be fine.

I'm really dumb, but in the NBA can they renegotiate contracts?

 

[Elizah Huge]

I'm really dumb, but in the NBA can they renegotiate contracts?

59. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team.

If the player agrees to waive a portion of his trade bonus in order to facilitate a trade (see question number 100), his contract may not be renegotiated for six months following the trade.

Every category of compensation (base salary, likely bonuses, and unlikely bonuses) that are increased in the renegotiated season must also increase in all subsequent seasons of the contract. Raises are based on the salary that is added to the first renegotiated season -- 8% of the amount that is added to the first renegotiated season becomes the maximum additional (renegotiated) salary in each subsequent season.

A renegotiated contract can be extended simultaneously (see question number 58). If a player's contract is extended and renegotiated simultaneously in this manner, his salary may not decrease by more than 40% from the last season before the extension (after it is renegotiated) to the first season of the extension. For example, if the salary in the last season of a contract is renegotiated to $10 million and the contract is simultaneously extended, the salary in the first season of the extension cannot be less than $6 million.

Other rules for renegotiations:

A signing bonus cannot accompany a renegotiation unless the contract is extended simultaneously (see question number 58).
A renegotiation cannot lead to any season having an unlikely bonus greater than 15% of the player's regular salary for that season.
A rookie scale contract (see question number 47) cannot be renegotiated.
A contract cannot be renegotiated in conjunction with a trade.
Two-Way contracts (see question number 82) cannot be renegotiated.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think ATL is just the most clear example, even if they might think so themselves, of a team that Rudy would seriously elevate. It does seem like they have a lot of belief in their squad because they beat PHI (Ben Simmons special), but I think it really carries to other teams as well. If the argument against Rudy is his contract, what are these other teams doing with that money? Do they even have cap space? Rudy is absolutely going to help any of these teams. DAL, ATL, CHO, CHI, TOR....they could all use Rudy. And we should get value for that. I'm just not buying that Rudy is a terrible contract when these teams would give him this contract in a milisecond if they could.

For sure... but the longer the contract the more potential it has to become bad at some point due to injury. Your eggs are also in one basket versus having a few players that are good but making $20M. The bigger the contract the harder it is to move (salary matching and such).

Does it kill his value? Nah. And we would get value for him it just all has to factor in. I think Collins and Hunter being younger represents a mirage of additional potential that you don't get with Rudy.

I think the "deal zone" line is - Capela, JC or Hunter, and #16 for Gobert & Gay. I think both teams could walk away at that price for a variety of reasons. If Atlanta goes Capela, JC, 16, and the future Charlotte pick and/or Johnson... then it starts to tip our way and we certainly do the deal. If we draw the line at Hunter, JC, 16, Johnson, future picks for Gobert i think they walk fairly easily (this is what Tony was pitching) unless they find something interesting for Capela. I think where we fall in the zone really depends on who has more urgency to do a deal.

If you have space to outright sign Rudy then yeah all these teams sign up... but the ask is not just paying Rudy... its giving up the other value and paying Rudy. I agree Rudy's deal is fair currently... it will age fine with new CBA and rising cap so long as he is healthy. Injuries hit older players and could be pretty rough for a guy his size... not like JC or Hunter are iron men.

 

[KqWIN]

Dude for the last time his contract now is fine but when he is 32 and 33 getting paid 44M and 47M that’s when it won’t be fine.

These teams don't necessarily get 44M and 47M to spend on someone if they don't have Rudy. These teams would be dying to give Rudy the exact contract he's on if they could, so if they want him in a trade, they got to pay up. There's no such thing as a terrible contract that teams would give up future value for.

 

[Elizah Huge]

For sure... but the longer the contract the more potential it has to become bad at some point due to injury. Your eggs are also in one basket versus having a few players that are good but making $20M. The bigger the contract the harder it is to move (salary matching and such).

Does it kill his value? Nah. And we would get value for him it just all has to factor in. I think Collins and Hunter being younger represents a mirage of additional potential that you don't get with Rudy.

I think the "deal zone" line is - Capela, JC or Hunter, and #16 for Gobert & Gay. I think both teams could walk away at that price for a variety of reasons. If Atlanta goes Capela, JC, 16, and the future Charlotte pick and/or Johnson... then it starts to tip our way and we certainly do the deal. If we draw the line at Hunter, JC, 16, Johnson, future picks for Gobert i think they walk fairly easily (this is what Tony was pitching) unless they find something interesting for Capela. I think where we fall in the zone really depends on who has more urgency to do a deal.

If you have space to outright sign Rudy then yeah all these teams sign up... but the ask is not just paying Rudy... its giving up the other value and paying Rudy. I agree Rudy's deal is fair currently... it will age fine with new CBA and rising cap so long as he is healthy. Injuries hit older players and could be pretty rough for a guy his size... not like JC or Hunter are iron men.

 

[LoPo]

I'm really dumb, but in the NBA can they renegotiate contracts?

I think the last year can be renegotiated of its an option year

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Elizah Huge]

These teams don't necessarily get 44M and 47M to spend on someone if they don't have Rudy. These teams would be dying to give Rudy the exact contract he's on if they could, so if they want him in a trade, they got to pay up. There's no such thing as a terrible contract that teams would give up future value for.

So Russell Westbrook’s contract isn’t terrible?

 

[KqWIN]

For sure... but the longer the contract the more potential it has to become bad at some point due to injury. Your eggs are also in one basket versus having a few players that are good but making $20M. The bigger the contract the harder it is to move (salary matching and such).

Does it kill his value? Nah. And we would get value for him it just all has to factor in. I think Collins and Hunter being younger represents a mirage of additional potential that you don't get with Rudy.

I think the "deal zone" line is - Capela, JC or Hunter, and #16 for Gobert & Gay. I think both teams could walk away at that price for a variety of reasons. If Atlanta goes Capela, JC, 16, and the future Charlotte pick and/or Johnson... then it starts to tip our way and we certainly do the deal. If we draw the line at Hunter, JC, 16, Johnson, future picks for Gobert i think they walk fairly easily (this is what Tony was pitching) unless they find something interesting for Capela. I think where we fall in the zone really depends on who has more urgency to do a deal.

If you have space to outright sign Rudy then yeah all these teams sign up... but the ask is not just paying Rudy... its giving up the other value and paying Rudy. I agree Rudy's deal is fair currently... it will age fine with new CBA and rising cap so long as he is healthy. Injuries hit older players and could be pretty rough for a guy his size... not like JC or Hunter are iron men.

I tend to agree. I think you want to come away with Capela+JC+one of Okongwu/Hunter. When the ATL fan came on here he really didn't want to trade Okongu/Hunter, and that's fair....but got to pay up otherwise. I think we landed on Capela+JC+Jalen Johnson+16+another first round pick. Which is right where you put the acceptable deal. I personally think the deal zone starts there, but I could be high on the value...and maybe ATL really believes in their core and says no anyways.

I'd honestly value Okogwu over Hunter. I think Hunter is fools gold and don't want to be the team paying for his next contract.

 

[KqWIN]

So Russell Westbrook’s contract isn’t terrible?

When he was traded for future value, of course not. Any contract that can be traded for value is not terrible by definition. If you believe Gobert can be traded for value, which you yourself implied by insisting that Hunter is in the trade, that is not a terrible contract.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I tend to agree. I think you want to come away with Capela+JC+one of Okongwu/Hunter. When the ATL fan came on here he really didn't want to trade Okongu/Hunter, and that's fair....but got to pay up otherwise. I think we landed on Capela+JC+Jalen Johnson+16+another first round pick. Which is right where you put the acceptable deal. I personally think the deal zone starts there, but I could be high on the value...and maybe ATL really believes in their core and says no anyways.

I'd honestly value Okogwu over Hunter. I think Hunter is fools gold and don't want to be the team paying for his next contract.

I don't know what to think about Okongwu... is he more like Ekpe Udoh (but with hands) or Bam. I think positionally Hunter makes more sense but I'd tend to agree I'd rather have Okongwu as you have some time to figure it out.

Curious what Hunter's deal ends up looking like. Given the injury history and inconsistency I think anything over $15M a year and I am going to wait until restricted FA. Might bite ya in the ***.

 

[KqWIN]

I don't know what to think about Okongwu... is he more like Ekpe Udoh (but with hands) or Bam. I think positionally Hunter makes more sense but I'd tend to agree I'd rather have Okongwu as you have some time to figure it out.

Curious what Hunter's deal ends up looking like. Given the injury history and inconsistency I think anything over $15M a year and I am going to wait until restricted FA. Might bite ya in the ***.

I think I like Pat Williams as an asset more than Okongwu because of the positional value, but I'm a total believer in Okongwu. I think he'll be the best player of the 3. I think if you come away with Pat or Okogwu + stuff you don't feel terrible about a Gobert trade given the circumstances. I think you referred to pat as a Hail Mary, but to me these guys are more like screen passes. High percentage of getting good yardage, but also a slight chance of breaking out a big play. I feel both are firmly future starters with slight chances of being all star players. Hunter I just don't think is worth including in a trade because he will cost more than he's worth (both in trade value and his next contract). He'll be 25 next year with the knees of a 35 year old.

 

[Elizah Huge]

When he was traded for future value, of course not. Any contract that can be traded for value is not terrible by definition. If you believe Gobert can be traded for value, which you yourself implied by insisting that Hunter is in the trade, that is not a terrible contract.

Just because a team was dumb enough to trade value for it doesn’t mean it’s not a terrible contract.

That’s like saying Royce is a great player just because someone would give us a pick for him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think I like Pat Williams as an asset more than Okongwu because of the positional value, but I'm a total believer in Okongwu. I think he'll be the best player of the 3. I think if you come away with Pat or Okogwu + stuff you don't feel terrible about a Gobert trade given the circumstances. I think you referred to pat as a Hail Mary, but to me these guys are more like screen passes. High percentage of getting good yardage, but also a slight chance of breaking out a big play. I feel both are firmly future starters with slight chances of being all star players. Hunter I just don't think is worth including in a trade because he will cost more than he's worth (both in trade value and his next contract). He'll be 25 next year with the knees of a 35 year old.

But its 3rd and 15 bro!!!! Screen PASS!!!! I kid.

Looked at Okongwu's numbers and splits because I hadn't seen him play in forever. He's been a lot better than I thought... I way undersold him. Just needs to stay on the damn court. Hawks medical staff must be garbage... seems like all their guys get hurt. I might be more inclined for a deal where they send Collins elsewhere and the focus of the deal is Onyeka, contract fluff, and draft capital.

 

[KqWIN]

Just because a team was dumb enough to trade value for it doesn’t mean it’s not a terrible contract.

That’s like saying Royce is a great player just because someone would give us a pick for him.

No it's like saying Royce is a good contract because someone would give us a pick for him.

 

[One Brow]

I am not sure what your definition of dominate means. Please elaborate.

"Mitchell doesn't bend the defense to his will. Even Lopo just acknowledged that all opponents have to do is double-team him, and Mitchell can't make the offense work."