Al Jefferson Projections

[NUMBERICA]

Jefferson improved every single year statistically until his ACL injury. Obviously his production took a dip from that. After a rather tough start in Utah he got a lot better fitting into the offense. To say AJ has never improved his game in seven ****ing years is a ****ing joke.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jeffeal01.html

To not see that his increase in production correlates only with the amount of possessions is a ****ing joke.

The amount of possessions he uses are greater than his ability to convert them efficiently. Most players can't be efficient and highly productive, that's fine, but most players know how to contribute to an offense without demanding possessions (and most don't make $14 million a year). Al doesn't help others score and almost more importantly doesn't know how to use the help others give him. All he wants and needs is an entry pass to do what he does, and what he does is more flash than substance.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Passing the ball to improve your teams ability to score and running are not exactly advanced concepts in basketball. No coach in the NBA sucks that bad.

Agreed his passing ability is sub-par, but how many times last year did someone enter the ball into Jefferson then the whole team sat around and watched?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

EVEN BETTER!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M102G2JO5Eg

God bless youtube.

Lol, I forget about this.

 

[LogGrad98]

To not see that his increase in production correlates only with the amount of possessions is a ****ing joke.

The amount of possessions he uses are greater than his ability to convert them efficiently. Most players can't be efficient and highly productive, that's fine, but most players know how to contribute to an offense without demanding possessions (and most don't make $14 million a year). Al doesn't help others score and almost more importantly doesn't know how to use the help others give him. All he wants and needs is an entry pass to do what he does, and what he does is more flash than substance.

I posted this in another thread, but it fits here too:

Just curious, how many centers performed better than AJ last season? What is their availability?

According to PER, the quickest stat I could find, AJ was 6th among centers last season. And his numbers last year were off his previous seasons' performances. The year before, the year after his injury, he was 11th. The year before that, 3rd until he got injured. I'm not sure how anyone thinks we are going to score a top 5 center to replace him that easily. Kanter is DEFINITELY not that center, not yet at least, and maybe (odds are, actually) he never will be.

https://tinyurl.com/d7wntlj

For the 2 remaining years on his contract, while we try out the other studs in the stable, we would have a very hard time doing better than keeping AJ at this point.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just think it would be dumb to give up on him right now. His trade value right now is at an all time low most likely. Worst case scenario is he becomes an expiring contract next year. Best case is that he becomes an expiring contract coming off a monster season.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I posted this in another thread, but it fits here too:

Just curious, how many centers performed better than AJ last season? What is their availability?

According to PER, the quickest stat I could find, AJ was 6th among centers last season. And his numbers last year were off his previous seasons' performances. The year before, the year after his injury, he was 11th. The year before that, 3rd until he got injured. I'm not sure how anyone thinks we are going to score a top 5 center to replace him that easily. Kanter is DEFINITELY not that center, not yet at least, and maybe (odds are, actually) he never will be.

https://tinyurl.com/d7wntlj

For the 2 remaining years on his contract, while we try out the other studs in the stable, we would have a very hard time doing better than keeping AJ at this point.

Individual production =/= winning contribution.

PER is an individual stat.

Agreed his passing ability is sub-par, but how many times last year did someone enter the ball into Jefferson then the whole team sat around and watched?

Agreed. It happens whether through instruction or reputation. I don't believe that:

1) the players think they will get the ball
a) they think they can do any cutting since he stands and holds the ball for 3 seconds before making a decision (do a dance then wizzie or reset the offense)

Low-post play is generally tricky nowadays anyway. To make it an effective go-to option you really need a stable of spot-up shooters which the Jazz don't have and am not sure they'll have anytime soon. There have been three effective primarily post-players in the last 20 years.

-Hakeem was incredible. One of the best 3 Cs (or bigs) of all-time IMO. Probably showed more finesse than anyone, and even with NBA rules disallowing zone and really limiting double teams, his teams didn't really become dominant until the Rockets became a team that shot a lot of 3s. Also one of the best defenders of all time. However, you could exclude him from this list since he was drafted in the 80's, but we'll be liberal here.
-Duncan was incredible. One of the savviest and smartest players the league has ever seen. A mismatch at two positions to go with one of the best coaches of all time and team that spread the floor very well through most of his career. Could back you down down low and get his shot or to the line, or burn you from the elbow. One of the best defenders of all-time.
-Shaq was incredible. One of the most dominant players the league has ever seen. Besides that he was just an unearthly physical specimen in terms of sheer size, he was unbelievably powerful. Besides THAT, he has an underrated acumen for the game that he didn't really need. He also didn't really need to be a very well-rounded because he could simply bull over people. Besides that, he was always on very talented teams that were frequently spaced well with shooters. Not a good defensive player, either, but again, that just shows his ability to impact a game offensively with pure physicality.

Jefferson is none of those things and the Jazz are not even approaching rosters like those. To add to that, rules make post-play more difficult. Who has emerged in the last ten years like anything of the above? P Gasol?

 

[NUMBERICA]

To add:

I don't think post-play is bad, I just think it's hard to make that a primary point of an offense and be effective with it. There is so much more bigs can do to score that having a traditional low-post game is a nice option, but again, it is very rare and very hard to build AROUND as a primary thing. I haven't seen Jefferson do well at anything besides that (and I think that aspect is also a generally overrated ability that he has [since he doesn't get to the line or finish above 50% from the field with consistency]) and the Jazz roster doesn't complement that style of play very well either. He's an okay rebounder.

Considering all of that, the glut of huge investment players behind him (TWO #3 picks and really the direct pieces traded for to make up for losing the clear-cut franchise player), and the cost... I'm just not a believer.

 

[LogGrad98]

To add:

I don't think post-play is bad, I just think it's hard to make that a primary point of an offense and be effective with it. There is so much more bigs can do to score that having a traditional low-post game is a nice option, but again, it is very rare and very hard to build AROUND as a primary thing. I haven't seen Jefferson do well at anything besides that (and I think that aspect is also a generally overrated ability that he has [since he doesn't get to the line or finish above 50% from the field with consistency]) and the Jazz roster doesn't complement that style of play very well either. He's an okay rebounder.

Considering all of that, the glut of huge investment players behind him (TWO #3 picks and really the direct pieces traded for to make up for losing the clear-cut franchise player), and the cost... I'm just not a believer.

So what would you do with AJ? Ship him out for a bag of chips since you have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Borchardt was twice the center Big Al is? Bring in another wing instead of keeping him as a center, moving our logjam from big to wing? But since AJ is so obviously terrible, the wing we could get would be Morris Almond, maybe, if we are lucky. If he just isn't worth keeping for the next 2 years, or year and a half (trade midway through next season as expiring), what do you try to get in return? Throw him at someone and hope they can overlook his obvious suckitude and maybe throw us a few 2nd rounders in 2020?

As much as you think people are overvaluing AJ, you are almost hyperbolically undervaluing him, imo. (hence my hyperbolic response )

 

[go3rdeyeblind]

Hopefully he improves on defense

 

[NUMBERICA]

(hence my hyperbolic response )

No kidding there.

Also, he's a tweener big; Not ideally sized for a C (he's adequate), way too slow for a PF.

I'd see if the Pacers would trade Hibbert straight up (probably then flip him for something or involve a 3rd team, or just keep him since Hibbert provides pure size that the Jazz don't have and a nice acumen). Or some other move that involves really no salary coming back and an asset to build with or two.

 

[sepanol]

Literally no one here treats AL like Shaq. Maybe your lack of English is making you translate things incorrectly?

I ment everyone exaggerates him like he is another Shaq. I don't think you are dumb enough not to understand what i really mean even though i don't use every single word correctly.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I ment everyone exaggerates him like he is another Shaq. I don't think you are dumb enough not to understand what i really mean even though i don't use every single word correctly.

No one exaggerates him like he is another Shaq.

 

[sepanol]

Well we obviously watched different players. Kanter's individual defense was nothing special even vs European players and his help defense was actually atrocious. Spacing was poor, passing non existent and rebounding was decent vs weak teams ( Portugal and Poland ) but he disappeared vs contenders with decent big men. Just wait few more weeks to see how he will look vs NBA talent before declaring him much better defender then big AL ok?.
To say best NBA low post player is maybe a bit better then Kanter at this point is ridiculous. Just let it go man... we know you like Kanter and it is patriotic love for your countryman, but give him at least couple years in NBA to better see his flaws and have better idea if he is ever going to be close to Big AL's level.

We saw same player, but i guess you didn't see anything else in the court except him. The turkish team sucked, they didn't bring any balls to low post players, they just brought the ball and shoot. In such a chaotic team, being the youngest player and didn't play competition ball of 2 years, he became the 2nd top scorer. He did more than what he was expected to do. He showed lots of promise, especially in defense. His rebounding is much better than Big Al, i guess you base a players defense only on rebounding and blocking stats which doesn't mean anything.

Why should i let it go? I am defending my point. Did i tell you anything about your crazy love for AK?
His flaws are pretty obvious, he needs to just go and play. He doesn't have fundemental flaws like Big Al. His defense was pretty ok, even though he made some mistakes in help defense. But they are nothing compared to Big Al's defense that doesn't exist at all.

Of course we will see Kanter better in a few years, not even a few years, but everyone will have a pretty good idea this year how good he can be. So he is certainly not a proven player, he has to work a lot on his game. But tell me, what Big Al has proven so far for utah jazz?

Millsap proved a lot, he played almost every game in the last 4-5 years contributing consistently. He never hesitated to take initiative even in playoffs. Memo helped us win a lot of games with his clutch shots and he was pretty much essential for the team until his injury. Even freaking Boozer had some remarkable playoff performances, but what did Big Al do to pull this team one level upper than what we were without him? He just made some stats when the franchise player was traded and he was the only scoring option left. What you guys can't see is, it is different to score 20 ppg in games without pressure (like our games after the trade and minnesota for 5 yrs) and to score in games with hardcore competition like we were having in the last couple of years.

Talking about proven and else, let's first see Big Al in higher competition games, and his flaws in playoff games, and then lets decide he is the best low post player in the game or not. Don't forget, he wasn't that good in the first half of season where we were actually under pressure

 

[sepanol]

My point is that Jefferson hasn't shown an ability to play winning basketball in 7 years. Maybe he changes that, but I don't know why - suddenly - after 7 ****ing years he's just to become Tim Duncan.

Thats what i am talking about

 

[sepanol]

No one exaggerates him like he is another Shaq.

Speak for yourself, i can see many people dreaming he is gonna make a big impact this year and suddenly he will become a Tim Duncan or Shaq like numberica said. He is not a japanese cartoon character, he isn't going to have a metamorphosis

 

[sepanol]

again, I disagree about Kanter's defense. Positional defense was acceptable where he could use his strength and size but rotational and help defense was horrible. He will get killed in NBA until he learns how to read the game and rotate properly. The other things you mentioned big AL does well on daily basis vs NBA's best while Kanter still struggled to do it vs Europ's best. And those slow feet and slow brain somehow did not prevent big AL from being one of the top shot blockers in NBA. Don't even start about passing, Kanter had what like 4 assists total in all Eurochampionship?

Thanks god you accept he has slow brain , i was going to think you have some patriotic love for AJ like i do for Kanter.
Also it is interesting that you basically think being a shot blocker proves being a good defender. AJ's defense sucks, more than raw, rookie, and inexperienced Kanter. And his passing sucks too.
I don't say Kanter is such a good passer, but do you know how many assists turkish team had in total ?
They totally sucked, i say it being purified from any patriotic feelings, they sucked so badly, it was the worst gamestyle that can be played with such a talented group of players, and in this cemetery of players, Kanter and Preldzic were like only two stars that were shining.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Speak for yourself, i can see many people dreaming he is gonna make a big impact this year and suddenly he will become a Tim Duncan or Shaq like numberica said. He is not a japanese cartoon character, he isn't going to have a metamorphosis

I believe Numberica was using a hyperbole.

 

[Brown Notes]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGQRFjWFwsU

Yea, really. He's just another Curry or Diop huh. What a cancer.

I have a hard time with the argument that A: he sucks for not being Olojuwan or Duncan. B: Is bad for the team because he's so good under the rim. Or C: Never improves.

AJ doesn't need to be a HOF player to hold down the C spot while Kanter develops (or doesn't). That's just flat-out a completely unfair projection. He's the best player on the team right now and the best center the Jazz have had since Mark Eaton.

This business about AJ bringing the team down due to his style of play is bogus. The guy had never played in a real offense and the situation here was toxic until Deron was traded. I don't know how AJ was supposed to acclimate to a system that was being bucked by the team captain. After that we had a broken team with no direction. What you do in that situation is get the ball to your best players and let them do their thing. Yea, he holds the ball sometimes. So did Karl. I'll wait to see some cutters before I throw him under the bus for only having 2 assists.

Al Jefferson improved his FT%, FT attempts, Steals, and turnover rate every year until his injury. This year is going to be very scrutinized and he knows it. If he gets another half assist, another board, and one more FT attempt I seriously doubt the haters will have a lot of traction around here. Those would be very good numbers and are quite reasonably obtainable. I should point out that Al had 3.6 Assists per game in April, 2.5 post all star. Yea, he won't pass huh.

Jefferson had great defensive stands against centers around the league, with standout games vs. Hibbert and Howard. He does a great job of winning position battles and bullying bigs out of their spots, and has superb timing with his hands while not fouling. No, he doesn't glide all over the paint denying every penetrating guard, but that's what we all are hoping Favors will do. Even if Kanter is starting.

It's not a situation of either AJ is Shaq or Dasagana Diop. He's not either and nobody should be making those comparisons. What he is, is a productive starter, a key piece to whatever the Jazz accomplish this season.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Eh.


Right now, Al is sitting at 19.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.7 BPG, and 0.8 SPG. His pick and roll defense has not improved...yet. We will see if things change during the playoffs. Im definitely not holding my breath though. One area that he only improved slightly, but not as much as my absurd prediction anticipated he would, was assisting. Al is averaging a career high of 2.2, with 2.0 APG before the all-star break, and 2.5 after the all star break. I tell you, if we had good three-point shooters, the guy could hit 3APG with ease. Either way, his passing has definitely improved from his Minny days.


Regardless, what is our opinion of all now, after having made our predictions? See if you posted in this thread, and see if he lived/exceeded/failed to meet your expectations.

 

[NotDeadYet]

I've been a supporter of Big Al all season.
I look at it this way; how many top-tier guys, and he is one of the top low-post C's in the NBA, actually IMPROVE their overall game as an NBA season progresses? Most improve for a few years, then their ego takes over and they level off development-wise. Big Al said something a few days ago which kinda defines him; he said when he scores, the WHOLE TEAM feels like THEY scored. The man has no ego and worked his butt off this past off-season, and did it all season long. Right now, he IS the focal point of our offense by DESIGN, not because he's a ball hog.