So, following up on my last post, here is why, collectively, the EC lottery teams may be on more of a par with those in the WC.
1. As I illustrated, the big difference in W/L records for the non-playoff teams has been due to inter-conference play. Average number of wins within their own conferences is 18.5 for both the EC and WC non-playoff teams. However, The WC lottery teams have had much better success in their 30 games against the Eastern Conference teams. Average wins by WC lottery teams against the EC was 13.9. By contrast, EC lottery teams only won 8.7 games against WC teams.
If the difference is related to travel fatigue, well, that's not going to change. Move this same Jazz team to the the East coast and they'd win fewer games by having to travel more miles on their road trips.
What I think MIGHT be in play here in terms of inter-conference success by NON-PLAYOFF WC teams is simply the Eastern Conference has had only one elite team in Miami. Everyone else has been beatable. For example, New York, the 2nd seed in the EC would have been the 6th seed n the West. The 5th seed, Chicago, would have been in a tie-breaker to even make the playoffs. Even the non-playoff teams, at home, would have had a chance to win against the upper EC playoff teams. Look at Utah last season. In addition to beating up on the EC lottery teams, they also won against the likes of Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
That changes this season. I think 1-5, the EC may be on par with the WC. Miami needs no explanation. Indiana really grew up in the playoffs. Brooklyn and New York improved their rosters. Chicago gets Rose back. I think the WC lottery teams win fewer inter-conference games this season and that average 5-win inter-conference disparity lessens.
2. Another big difference is in the quality of the mid-playoff teams:
Atlanta, Toronto and Detroit (or Washington, Cleveland...whoever you plug in) is not as strong as GS, Denver and Portland (or whoever you project 6-8). Non-playoff teams in the EC have a better chance of winning a game, particularly at home, against those EC teams than do the lottery teams in the WC.
3. And finally, I will admit there is some schedule strength difference in the lottery-bound teams, but certainly not as much as many are professing, and only against the very worst teams. As a whole, I believe the non-playoff WC teams are fairly even with their Eastern counterparts. Maybe the Lakers can still be a little better than everyone else. Maybe NOLA improves to 40 wins. Those are stretches. But Saramento, Minnesota, Cleveland, Milwaukee...I just don't see a whole lot of separation West vs. East.
I do, however, see Philly and Boston as the absolute dregs of the NBA...much, much worse than Phoenix and Utah. So two additional games against those teams? OK...maybe makes a difference of one extra win in the overall record of a few EC teams.
