I posted this on another board. I'll post it here as well. Trying to look at things objectively.
* * *
The most successful formula for a team that wants to contend is:
** 3 All Star-caliber players on max deals
** 2 - 3 complementary players on team-friendly deals
** A handful of role players on rookie deals, mid-levels or vet minimums
Any player in the 2nd tier that gets expensive (like Favors or Hill are about to) no longer fits this blueprint and should be moved out. Either trade for a high-potential talent, trade for a draft pick, or let them walk.
The hard part to the above is acquiring the All Star-caliber players. So far, the Jazz have Hayward and Gobert, both of whom were acquired in the draft. If they drafted CJ McCollum or Giannis instead of Trey Burke, they'd already have their third All Star-caliber player, but they bricked that draft. So they need a few more swings to get that player.
Here are the moves:
-- Trade Favors for a young upside player or draft picks. The goal is to find that third All Star-caliber player. Favors is somewhat redundant with Gobert, or at least doesn't fit well with Gobert, so move him between now and the trade deadline.
-- Let Hill walk, unless he's going to get paid like the 2nd-tier player he is. For crying out loud, he only played 49 games last year and the Jazz still won 51 games.
-- The Jazz's players in the 2nd tier are Hood, Joe Johnson, Exum, Burks, Lyles and Ingles if he can be re-signed.
-- The Jazz need to draft players with All Star upside, even if they're risky picks. There's no point drafting average-looking talent. Go big or go home. Getting talent in the draft is historically the only way the Jazz have acquired All Star-caliber talent, unless you go back to when they traded for a disgruntled Hornacek more than 20 years ago. Well, there was also that Boozer/Memo Okur free-agency thing, but that was a rare opportunity.
The 2017/18 season is a bit of a down shift while the Jazz try to find their 3rd All Star and the Warriors reign. They'll still win 50 games and likely make it to the 2nd round.
