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Does Lauri Get Traded?

Does Lauri Get Dealt Before The Season Starts?

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
MT Steve said:
If Kessler by himself is enough to bring you from 5th to 9th by helping you win too many games, then it's extremely unlikely the difference between the 5th and 9th picks next year will match his value.

Especially when you factor in probabilities: The combined odds of the Jazz either jumping up in the lottery, or staying put but drafting a player who ends up better than the dude drafted a few spots earlier, which happens all the time.
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MT Steve said:
Funny thing is this analysis also assumes that Kessler HAS this massive of an impact on winning. I'm like one of the biggest Kessler homers on this forum and even I don't think he's near that level.

It would be beyond silly to have the driving force behind a Kessler trade be "He'll help us win too many games this season".
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There is this mathematical analysis that measures this sort of thing. Walker had 4 WS last year playing 60ish games and playing less than starter minutes. Year before was 7 win shares. In the Wemby year the difference between 5th and 10th was 5 games. This year the gap was wider... 9 games.

The alternative fact patterns to the "silliness" of trading Walker in part to lower our win total for the year would be Keeping Walker because:

- We are trying to win now so keep good players.
- We think his value will be higher in a year when he is on an expiring deal but his acquirer will have bird rights... but we can get more for him in 12 months. And we are cool risking losing our pick completely to OKC or not getting a top 5-6 pick.
- Kessler is a building block.

Not sure of others but I'm sure they are there. Which one of those would you guess it is?
 
HermanG said:
But you are not guaranteeing top 5 with anything but the worst record. For everyone else its about the lotto balls.

Also 5th has 42% (so more 40/60 than 50/50) odds for top 4 and floor is 9. Its way better than 8th who has 26% for top 4 and floor at 12 (albeit 5th getting jumped is more common than 8th, and if 8th gets jumped then 5th does as well).

But 16% is not worth giving up anything that could be a good future piece.
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I'm not hell bent on one spot that makes perfect sense. I understand the floor in the most unlikely scenarios... a reasonable floor for the 4th 5th spot is going to be 6-7 draft spot with a much better shot at jumping in top 4. Its both factors to me.

Getting an all-star or superstar changes the trajectory of the franchise. Kessler doesn't do that. If I can get something now on top of increasing my odds at an all-star I am not going to eff around. Even if its only a 16% chance.
 
NUMBERICA said:
They have an emerging top-5 player on their hands locked in who’s only ~23 years old and a nice supporting cast and just went to a conference final? They’re also in the East.
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No shot he’s anywhere near that lol. Hes closer to 20 than 5. They also don’t make the ECF if the Knicks or Bucks didn’t have injuries.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm not hell bent on one spot that makes perfect sense. I understand the floor in the most unlikely scenarios... a reasonable floor for the 4th 5th spot is going to be 6-7 draft spot with a much better shot at jumping in top 4. Its both factors to me.

Getting an all-star or superstar changes the trajectory of the franchise. Kessler doesn't do that. If I can get something now on top of increasing my odds at an all-star I am not going to eff around. Even if its only a 16% chance.
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But the 16% better top 5 odds arent the only odds you are up against. It gets halved by the "who develops into AS and who doesnt" which I bet can be historically proven to be less than or at most around 50% even for top 3 picks.
 
And with Sexton or Kessler its about settling on what you think 75-80% of their value now IF YOU HAVE TO. You are trading them solely for losing. You are getting stuff and getting the benefit of losing. If the offers suck then don't trade them for nothing.

Hardy is a competent coach... give him the offensive floor that Sexton and Lauri provide and a guy that can provide enough defensive value to win you 5-7 games then you will absolutely end up creeping into the back half of the lottery. Collins and JC have also yet to move. Our second year guys level up and you throw yourself firmly into the same dumbass dance we have landed the last couple years. We can tank with Lauri... but not if we give him this much help.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
There is this mathematical analysis that measures this sort of thing. Walker had 4 WS last year playing 60ish games and playing less than starter minutes. Year before was 7 win shares. In the Wemby year the difference between 5th and 10th was 5 games. This year the gap was wider... 9 games.
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This is such an unbelievably flawed way of estimating how many wins a role player will contribute to a dramatically worse roster. Basketball isn't a "plug this guy in on any roster and he'll get you 'X' amount of more wins". Your teammates have a heavy impact on your own contributions, especially if you're a non-star. And Walker's going to be playing with mostly rookies and sophomores this season.

Handlogten's Heros said:
The alternative fact patterns to the "silliness" of trading Walker in part to lower our win total for the year would be Keeping Walker because:

- We are trying to win now so keep good players.
- We think his value will be higher in a year when he is on an expiring deal but his acquirer will have bird rights... but we can get more for him in 12 months. And we are cool risking losing our pick completely to OKC or not getting a top 5-6 pick.
- Kessler is a building block.

Not sure of others but I'm sure they are there. Which one of those would you guess it is?
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If you don't think Kessler is a building block and you think you can extract better value by trading him now, then go ahead and do it.

What you shouldn't do is trade him for the sake of hoping to lose a few more games.

What are the combined odds of:

Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

Probably pretty low.
 
I'd also add that if you believe Walker's 7 WS number from his rookie year is what you can expect from him on a competent team, then holy hell you DEFINITELY don't trade him just for the sake of losing a few games. You better get a very good package from that trade.
 
Hypothetically speaking, if Collier and Filipowski are somehow way more advanced than any of us foresaw and they made the Jazz 8 wins better just based on them being on the roster, do you trade them at the deadline because they are too good?
 
HermanG said:
But the 16% better top 5 odds arent the only odds you are up against. It gets halved by the "who develops into AS and who doesnt" which I bet can be historically proven to be less than or at most around 50% even for top 3 picks.
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Next year's draft is so strong. @Tony Jones who pays attention to all this stuff said its the best draft since Lebron's draft. Several others have mentioned about teams buzzing about it. Having high picks in the right drafts increases your odds of landing the star/superstar.

I didn't really complain much last year when we didn't tank. It was looking at the draft and saying "meh". This draft is different. Believe what you would like but the hype of 2025 and 2026 is being driven by dudes that pay attention to this stuff and are connected with teams. Could be wrong but if you traded selling a little lower (potentially) on Walker Kessler for a shot at that... I'm good. I don't see Walker as a building block. He's nice to have... but in moving him we might find something better than him.
 
Elizah Huge said:
No shot he’s anywhere near that lol. Hes closer to 20 than 5. They also don’t make the ECF if the Knicks or Bucks didn’t have injuries.
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Emerging top-5, meaning he’ll be there in the next year or two (which doesn’t trend towards picks being good).
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Hypothetically speaking, if Collier and Filipowski are somehow way more advanced than any of us foresaw and they made the Jazz 8 wins better just based on them being on the roster, do you trade them at the deadline because they are too good?
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I mean you have to, right? The 2025 draft is so good.

And if the 2027 draft is looking historically good as well, and Cody Williams is looking like an emerging star, I think you have to ship his *** out as well.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Emerging top-5, meaning he’ll be there in the next year or two (which doesn’t trend towards picks being good).
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Again he’s nowhere near that or emerging towards that.

Ant
Giannis
Luka
Jokic
Shai
Tatum
Embiid
Kawhi
Wemby
Curry
Booker

He will not be better than any of those guys. He also is not going to be better than a lot more of guys after these guys.
 
MT Steve said:
This is such an unbelievably flawed way of estimating how many wins a role player will contribute to a dramatically worse roster. Basketball isn't a "plug this guy in on any roster and he'll get you 'X' amount of more wins". Your teammates have a heavy impact on your own contributions, especially if you're a non-star. And Walker's going to be playing with mostly rookies and sophomores this season.
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Then maybe we should get rid of WS as a stat? That is kind of what it is designed to do... I didn't invent it.
MT Steve said:
If you don't think Kessler is a building block and you think you can extract better value by trading him now, then go ahead and do it.

What you shouldn't do is trade him for the sake of hoping to lose a few more games.

What are the combined odds of:

Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

Probably pretty low.
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Its not pretty low lol. Its also VERY important. Like way more important than Walker.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Then maybe we should get rid of WS as a stat? That is kind of what it is designed to do... I didn't invent it.
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No it isn't. It's designed to show a player's contributions to that specific team's overall success.

Handlogten's Heros said:
Its not pretty low lol. Its also VERY important. Like way more important than Walker.
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Assign your own values:

50% (I'm being generous - it's probably a LOT lower): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
80% (Being generous again, it's probably lower): The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

50% x 79.8% x 80% = 31.9%

Yeah.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Hypothetically speaking, if Collier and Filipowski are somehow way more advanced than any of us foresaw and they made the Jazz 8 wins better just based on them being on the roster, do you trade them at the deadline because they are too good?
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Yeah I mean if you have two rookies who are both simultaneously performing like top 30 players you hold on to them. But in the real world they likely are in the G league for the first 30-40 games.
 
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