Following 2016 potential draftees

[Coach Ellis]

This top 7 seems to be the most accurate to how I'm seeing it. I think your top 7 is the best yet.

I think 7 or 8 of them end up in the lottery. In reality, I think Davis is drafted before Zizic. I would be fine with Zizic early, but I don't think the lottery is his window.

Chriss and Labissiere (and maybe Maker) will get drafted early purely on potential and physical ability. If they develop, they'll outperform their draft position. Sabonis to me could go just about anywhere - I'm finding it hard to peg him. Diamond Stone and Zhou Xi are both off the radar right now, but they should be first round picks too. Petr Corneille will likely squeak into the end of the first round as a draft and stash prospect. A lot of good bigs that the Jazz could use to develop.

My idea of a really good, realistic draft would be to stay at #12 and take SG: Furkan Korkmaz and then trade up from the 2nd round picks to draft a backup big man. I have the same vibe about him as I did about Porzingis in 2014. He might be s lottery pick this year, but if he pulls out, goes back to Europe and plays well. . . I think he'll move into the top 10 - possibly top 5. His length and reported work ethic are good for development and his shooting stroke is beautiful.

After 12, the Jazz pull another move like they did to get Gobert and send Burke, 2nd round picks and cash to move up for Ante Zizic in the early-to-mid 20's. He has no business being around that late. I think he's going to be the Nikola Jokic of this draft. Overlooked and underrated until he gets to the states and just plays great.

Give me Korkmaz and Zizic, bring them stateside, put them in P3, have them play summer league, have them workout and practice with the team as much as possible, but make them the bottom 2 spots on the roster and have them be the star players for the Stars this year. Everyone else on the d-league team is brought in to support the development of those two.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Was he OK though? Their stats are not that far off adjusted for playing time...

Spoiler

Skal has higher usage, at the same efficiency(suggests he can be better offensive player), and he's got 10% BLK% which suggests he can be better defender or at least shot blocker (I think he's better defender from day 1). His huge PF numbers are worrying, but I think with getting his body in better place would fix some of those issues.

Context matters. Lyles played on a stacked team that, 1) didn't need him to produce a ton, and 2) didn't allow him to play at his natural position, or play to his strengths. On the other hand, Kentucky desperately needed Skal to produce, and put him in his natural position where he could, and should succeed. So basically, situation wise, Lyles had everything going against him and Skal just the opposite.

With Skal it isn't as much a question about talent (although those questions do exist and are valid), but more a question of toughness, especially mentally, attitude, work ethic, and desire. Those are very hard character issues to overcome. I wouldn't risk it.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think 7 or 8 of them end up in the lottery. In reality, I think Davis is drafted before Zizic. I would be fine with Zizic early, but I don't think the lottery is his window.

Chriss and Labissiere (and maybe Maker) will get drafted early purely on potential and physical ability. If they develop, they'll outperform their draft position. Sabonis to me could go just about anywhere - I'm finding it hard to peg him. Diamond Stone and Zhou Xi are both off the radar right now, but they should be first round picks too. Petr Corneille will likely squeak into the end of the first round as a draft and stash prospect. A lot of good bigs that the Jazz could use to develop.

My idea of a really good, realistic draft would be to stay at #12 and take SG: Furkan Korkmaz. I have the same vibe about him as I did about Porzingis in 2014. He might be s lottery pick this year, but if he pulls out, goes back to Europe and plays well. . . I think he'll move into the top 10 - possibly top 5. His length and reported work ethic are good for development and his shooting stroke is beautiful. After 12, the Jazz pull another move like they did to get Gobert and send Burke, 2nd round picks and cash to move up for Ante Zizic in the early-to-mid 20's. He has no business being around that late. I think he's going to be the Nikola Jokic of this draft. Overlooked and underrated until he gets to the states and just plays great.

Give me Korkmaz and Zizic, bring them stateside, put them in P3, have them play summer league, have them workout and practice with the team as much as possible, but make them the bottom 2 spots on the roster and have them be the star players for the Stars this year. Everyone else on the d-league team is brought in to support the development of those two.

I think Sabonis skill-wise is on par with Poeltl and is a better passer and shooter out on the floor. I think both Poeltl and Sabonis go in the 10 - 15 range when it's said and done. I'd have a hard time passing on Sabonis for a guard or wing in the middle of this draft.

 

[stitches]

He played with much more talent, less stats to go around.

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk

Context matters. Lyles played on a stacked team that, 1) didn't need him to produce a ton, and 2) didn't allow him to play at his natural position, or play to his strengths. On the other hand, Kentucky desperately needed Skal to produce, and put him in his natural position where he could, and should succeed. So basically, situation wise, Lyles had everything going against him and Skal just the opposite.

With Skal it isn't as much a question about talent (although those questions do exist and are valid), but more a question of toughness, especially mentally, attitude, work ethic, and desire. Those are very hard character issues to overcome. I wouldn't risk it.

That's all fair, but I still love his potential more than pretty much anybody else's in this draft. I don't disagree that he's a risky pick. I just think the risk is worth it(ESPECIALLY at 12) and I think if you manage to get his body in order and develop his game, you've got a top 3 player out of this draft. Of course it all will depend on his willingness to work and drive to succeed. Hope he doesn't waste all his talent.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm okay with going into the season with;
Bam
Gabriel
Willis
Humphries
Wynyard

All 6'9 or bigger. I little thin, but not too bad.
Top 5 team, I'd say. Guard play should be great by March.

Another group of bust with 1 good player.

 

[NCJazz]

Another group of bust with 1 good player.

I seriously wonder why Humphries chose KY. Would have been better off somewhere else.

 

[RandyForRubio]

I think Sabonis skill-wise is on par with Poeltl and is a better passer and shooter out on the floor. I think both Poeltl and Sabonis go in the 10 - 15 range when it's said and done. I'd have a hard time passing on Sabonis for a guard or wing in the middle of this draft.

I wouldn't. He can't play defense.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hey Bern... You love Baldwin right? I'm intrigued but lazy and don't want to look....

Have there been guys at PG with his physical profile that have been busts?

I cant think of many guys as big as him who were athletic that failed and the only comps I can come up with are Hill... too scared to say Westbrook because I don't think he has that kind of athleticism or fire.

I think he may have the lowest floor of the guys that have big upside (in our range anyway).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Hey Bern... You love Baldwin right? I'm intrigued but lazy and don't want to look....

Have there been guys at PG with his physical profile that have been busts?

I cant think of many guys as big as him who were athletic that failed and the only comps I can come up with are Hill... too scared to say Westbrook because I don't think he has that kind of athleticism or fire.

I think he may have the lowest floor of the guys that have big upside (in our range anyway).

You don't remember the great Bongo or Smush Parker?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You don't remember the great Bongo or Smush Parker?

Physically those make sense... Baldwin certainly outweighs those guys and is more athletic and a better shooter. It's just so much easier to remember the successes than the failures.

I think Baldwin might be more of a good ball handling combo than a pure point. I'm thinking he has more similarities to guys like Eric Gordon or Rodney Stuckey.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Hey Bern... You love Baldwin right? I'm intrigued but lazy and don't want to look....

Have there been guys at PG with his physical profile that have been busts?

I cant think of many guys as big as him who were athletic that failed and the only comps I can come up with are Hill... too scared to say Westbrook because I don't think he has that kind of athleticism or fire.

I think he may have the lowest floor of the guys that have big upside (in our range anyway).

Physically Smush Parker is closer than Bongo. Bongo's a pretty awful comparison, his wingspan was half a foot shorter. And neither of them could shoot like Baldwin. Or defend like Baldwin.

But basically no, to answer your question. Corey Joseph (again, a lot smaller wingspan) is fairly close in some skills, and he's probably the worst of that group. Then you have George Hill. Then at the top, Russ.

Baldwin is a better athlete than George, but not as good as Russ. Better shooter than all of them (coming out of college). He needs to work on finishing, ball handle, and body control. Promising thing is his ball handling improved a lot from freshman to sophomore year, so that shows he can do it.

I really just don't see why people aren't higher. His floor is literally George Hill. He's a ++ defender and + shooter. So again, worst case, a bigger version of George Hill or Avery Bradley. Ceiling? Less athletic Russ. That probably isn't going to happen, but maybe a better shooting Baron Davis? Maybe Jeff Hornacek? Maybe Chauncey Billups? All pretty good scenarios. He's a safe pick with high upside. I don't see how he's not a top 10 pick, tbh.

Here's a really good write up on him that has a ton of info on who he compares to statistically, stylistically, and physically coming out of college. Little long, but excellent.

https://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-wade-baldwin/

 

[RandyForRubio]

Physically those make sense... Baldwin certainly outweighs those guys and is more athletic and a better shooter. It's just so much easier to remember the successes than the failures.

I think Baldwin might be more of a good ball handling combo than a pure point. I'm thinking he has more similarities to guys like Eric Gordon or Rodney Stuckey.

Yeah, I definitely like him off ball to start off with until he improves his handle. Size wise, decent comparisons. Much, much better defender than both. Much, much better shooter than Stuckey. He's kinda like Brad Beal in a way, although I think a better defender.

Just think of him and Exum in our backcourt. 6'10 and 6'11 wingspans in your backcourt! We've been begging for perimeter defense and shooting, here it is, with tremendous upside, and he's projected to go middle of the draft! I don't see how he's not a huge appeal.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

His floor isnt George Hill. Do you know what floor is? By saying his floor is George Hill, that means he should be playing at a George Hill level his rookie year.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Baldwin is the kind of athlete who looks good in the open court, but lacks the agile and quick movements to really display his athletic ability at all times. Not only that, his handle is ugly for a PG (Neto, for instance, would rip Baldwin if he tried to bring it up against him) and his off the dribble shooting is awkward.

I think he would be good on a team that has a primary ball-handler that isn't him, but if any teams wants him to be a primary ball-handler I think he will struggle.

 

[Chargers Jazz Angels]

I am not sure how happy i would be if the jazz draft another point guard.

Exum does have some question marks but i am optimistic of his future.

Neto i will say was impressive for a rookie. He was getting better as the season went on. His 3 pt shooting was a lot better than i expected. I think he screams solid back up.

Mack was the floor leader the jazz needed but you could tell he hadnt jelled completely with the players. I see the jazz keeping him just because the traded for him. I do t think he is a started but is again a very good back up.

And burke needs no more. I am sorry that he never got it and i wish him luck where ever he goes.

There is no way the jazz are going to carry 4 pgs. Even a combo guard because burks has shown he can play it in a pinch.

Unless DL has a trade already agreed to in principle the jazz are not drafting a point guard.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Basically, I dont trust Baldwin's feel for scoring at all and that combined with his lack of handle worries me about his "ceiling". I think he is going to be good if he gets on the right team and focuses on spot-up shooting and defense. If he tries to be a playmaking PG I think he will never be starter level.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Like, honestly, we are talking about a guy who finished in the 9th percentile (that is terrible btw) for finishing at the rim as having a floor of George Hill.

His floor is a guy who can't score outside of spot-up jump shots, struggles to bring the ball up the court and never learns NBA defense.

That said, I still like Baldwin for what he is.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Never learns NBA defense? He already defends at an elite level with elite measurements. Lol

 

[RandyForRubio]

Let's also not forget he played his entire sophomore year at 19. He's got a lot of growth left, and has already shown a lot of improvement.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Never learns NBA defense? He already defends at an elite level with elite measurements. Lol

He doesnt defend at an elite level.....

Defensively, Baldwin's size, with his elite 6'10” wingspan and developed upper body, gives him a considerable amount of potential to defend either guard position. When engaged, Baldwin is close to realizing that potential, as he has the lateral mobility to stay in front of his man, the length to close out and contest shots, and the strength to fight through screens. The problem is Baldwin is too frequently not engaged, and can be prone to being caught sleeping off the ball, especially ball watching looking for passing lanes to jump. Still, he has enormous potential on this side of the court, the effort is mostly there, and it's easy to envision him becoming a plus defender in the NBA.

Elite defensive potential does not equal being an elite defender.