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Jazz 2017/18 Playoff Bus! All Aboard!

Tonight's games will clarify things a lot. Would sure be swell if the Thunder would drop a game. Nuggets & Blazers game is huge.
 
Here's the results of my hard hitting analysis.

Assuming OKC wins out (@ Miami then vs. Memphis):

If we win 0 remaining games we'll probably be the 6th and play Portland (but could be the 7th).
If we win 1 remaining game we'll probably be the 5th and play OKC
If we win 2 remaining games we'll probably be the 3rd and play NO / SA

Plz lose tonight OKC
 
Catchall said:
Tonight's games will clarify things a lot. Would sure be swell if the Thunder would drop a game. Nuggets & Blazers game is huge.
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The most realistic path for the Jazz is to capture the 3 seed and for Minnesota or OKC to end up at #7 where they would have a puncher's chance vs Golden State. When Butler was healthy, Minnesota was the clear #3 in the West, so that first round series without Curry would be interesting. The Jazz with homecourt in the second round would be huge.

As for the other side of the West bracket, it would be either Portland or OKC in the 2nd round vs Houston. Both teams could give Houston at least a 6 game series -- or more if Harden and Paul's playoff issues resurface.

IMO, GS needs to be knocked out when Curry is out and supposedly he won't be back until mid-way through the 2nd round series. Houston's quality of play notwithstanding, I still like a healthy GS team against them in the WC Finals.

There is only one scenario where the Jazz can get to 48 or 49 wins and avoid OKC if OKC wins out -- and that involves the Clippers beating the Pelicans tonight. But a possible end result of that sequence is the Jazz possibly having to play a healthy Minnesota team which I don't think is better than playing OKC. What really shakes things up is OKC losing to Miami. They puts all kinds of things into play, like OKC or Minnesota ending up at #7.

The absolute best scenario I found was the Jazz winning out, OKC gets upset by Miami and New Orleans and Minnesota both win out. That produces: 3. Utah, 4. Portland, 5. New Orleans, 6. San Antonio, 7. Minnesota, 8. OKC
 
I'd rather play NOLA than the Spurs in round one. Also, I'm not sure playing the Warriors in the second round is better than playing the Rockets. The Warriors are vulnerable without Steph, but if they get into the 2nd round and get him back during that series, they could ramp up quickly.

If OKC would lose to Miami, that would take a lot of pressure off of us. We have tie-breakers over SAS, Minny, NOLA and could hold on to the 4th seed. But we have to stay a game ahead of the Thunder. If they tie us, they'll leapfrog us due to the tie-breaker.
 
FarrakhanJazzFan said:
The absolute best scenario I found was the Jazz winning out, OKC gets upset by Miami and New Orleans and Minnesota both win out. That produces: 3. Utah, 4. Portland, 5. New Orleans, 6. San Antonio, 7. Minnesota, 8. OKC
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Can New Orleans lose to the Spurs for their last game and just have those two flip? Or does other **** happen in that scenario? Playing th Spurs isn’t the best scenario in my view, though I would prefer them to OKC.

Things are gonna be crazy these next few days. I guess the easiest thing is just to wait. I know a lot of these teams play **** teams, but I’m sure there will be at least one loss that everyone penciled in for a win.
 
Catchall said:
I'd rather play NOLA than the Spurs in round one. Also, I'm not sure playing the Warriors in the second round is better than playing the Rockets. The Warriors are vulnerable without Steph, but if they get into the 2nd round and get him back during that series, they could ramp up quickly.

If OKC would lose to Miami, that would take a lot of pressure off of us. We have tie-breakers over SAS, Minny, NOLA and could hold on to the 4th seed. But we have to stay a game ahead of the Thunder. If they tie us, they'll leapfrog us due to the tie-breaker.
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It seems like the Pelicans are the least likely opponent in the first round if the Jazz end up with 48 or 49 wins. Unless there's a truly bizarre upset -- like the OKC losing to Memphis or San Antonio losing the Kings, I just don't see it.

The only scenario where we play the Pelicans is if Denver loses to Portland but beats Minnesota and New Orleans loses to the Clippers and beats the Spurs. That seems incredibly unlikely. Denver is eliminated if it loses to Portland tonight and I don't know if they have anything in the tank on the road against Minnesota.
 
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FarrakhanJazzFan said:
It seems like the Pelicans are the least likely opponent in the first round if the Jazz end up with 48 or 49 wins. Unless there's a truly bizarre upset -- like the OKC losing to Memphis or San Antonio losing the Kings, I just don't see it.

The only scenario where we play the Pelicans is if Denver loses to Portland but beats Minnesota and New Orleans loses to the Clippers and beats the Spurs. That seems incredibly unlikely. Denver is eliminated if it loses to Portland tonight and I don't know if they have anything in the tank on the road against Minnesota.
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If the Jazz lose to Portland, then there's no way we finish 3rd. Even if our records are tied, Portland would win the tie-breaker due to Division record.

If the Jazz lose one of their last two games and end with 48 wins, it's very likely that we'll be tied with either San Antonio or New Orleans -- whichever of those two wins their head-to-head matchup to end the season.

The problem is that if OKC gets to 48 wins and gets us in a 3-way tie, they'll take over the 4th seed due to winning the season series with the Jazz 3-1, and that will push us to the 5th seed, either either San Antonio or New Orleans ending up 6th.

So the scenario that lets the Jazz play the Pels is for the Thunder to lose one of their last 2 games, and for the Pels to win theirs (including a win over San Antonio). Then the Jazz and Pels will be tied at 48 wins, and the Jazz will get homecourt due to owning the tie-break with the Pels.

If the Jazz move up to the 3rd seed, Portland will drop to the 4th seed, either NOLA or SAS will be the 5th seed, and OKC will be the 6th seed.
 
Catchall said:
If the Jazz lose to Portland, then there's no way we finish 3rd. Even if our records are tied, Portland would win the tie-breaker due to Division record.

If the Jazz lose one of their last two games and end with 48 wins, it's very likely that we'll be tied with either San Antonio or New Orleans -- whichever of those two wins their head-to-head matchup to end the season.

The problem is that if OKC gets to 48 wins and gets us in a 3-way tie, they'll take over the 4th seed due to winning the season series with the Jazz 3-1, and that will push us to the 5th seed, either either San Antonio or New Orleans ending up 6th.

So the scenario that lets the Jazz play the Pels is for the Thunder to lose one of their last 2 games, and for the Pels to win theirs (including a win over San Antonio). Then the Jazz and Pels will be tied at 48 wins, and the Jazz will get homecourt due to owning the tie-break with the Pels.

If the Jazz move up to the 3rd seed, Portland will drop to the 4th seed, either NOLA or SAS will be the 5th seed, and OKC will be the 6th seed.
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I was looking for a website where you plug things in and someone linked to one up above. Basically we can play the Pelicans as a 6th seed if the Pels lose to the Clippers but beat San Antonio and OKC loses to Miami.
 
Looks pretty hard to avoid OKC unless one of the other teams lose a game they aren't supposed to. In this case it is best to just win out and go for home court. The only thing we might be able to choose is whether we want to play portland or okc.
 
I like the Jazz's chances against ANYONE in a 7-game playoff format. As our post-January road-record confirms, defense travels. So let's win out and get the 3rd seed, and let the other teams decide who will be our first victim.
 
Really tough to call Blazers/Nuggets tonight. My gut says Blazers, but the Nuggets are the 4th best home team in the NBA this year and have been fighting hard for a playoff spot.
 
Siro said:
I hope we do get OKC so we can dismantle our second franchise in a row.
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I dont. I think they are one of the few teams who could actually upset the Warriors in the first round. I hope we get them in the 2nd round.
 
Pels should win tonight. Rivers, Teo, and Sweet Lou are all out tonight.

But stranger things have happened. The Clips still have Deandre, Tobias and some other decent dudes and they’re at home.
 
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