Jazz and Knicks discussing Donovan Mitchell trade per Shams Charania and Tony Jones

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't doubt that Tony is getting this exact narrative from the Jazz and I cannot fault him for reporting it since it's most probably coming straight from the team, but come on... we are forum posters, we are not idiots... except for one

But yah... allow me to be extremely skeptical about that line of reasoning and reports coming from the Jazz. Look at what they do, not at what they say. EVERY move this off-season has been "starting a rebuild" move and not "lets retool around Mitchell" move. We can listen to those reports and still realize what exactly is happening here.

Prior to the Rudy trade I think it was true… when we got the huge load of future assets I think it very much pushed us to door #2

 

[stitches]

Prior to the Rudy trade I think it was true… when we got the huge load of future assets I think it very much pushed us to door #2

IMO this is such a HUGE decision about the direction of the team that you cannot allow one offer, even it if was this good to dictate what you do. This decision needed to include the following steps and considerations:\
1. Ask yourself - is this core good enough to compete at the highest level. If the answer is yes - make moves around the margin to complement our best players. If the answer is yes, you do NOT trade Gobert, even for that package... ESPECIALLY for that package where the value is mostly in future assets. Obviously the answer here was no.
2. Ask yourself - can we retool around either of our core pieces quick enough before their contract is out and/or they ask out? IMO this is where this narrative fails completely. "we traded Rudy not because we didn't believe we can compete with this core, but because the offer was so good"(BTW I agree the offer was good but that offer guarantees ZERO impact players for this team for the duration of Mitchell's contract and/or before he asks out). IMO if you believe in Rudy as a cornerstone and a key piece in this iteration of Jazz basketball... you simply don't trade him. Not unless you think your contending window is over(IMO this is what happened). OK, now we've determined the FO thought at least Rudy was not part of the next contending Jazz team.
3. Are we retooling around Mitchell? With the slight exception of some buzz about Collin Sexton interest, the reports are that the Jazz have not made ANY attempts to strengthen the roster in the short term. We have no starting level center and we haven't even tried to get one. We have made 3 moves this off-season(Royce, Rudy, Beverley). ALL of them shipping out starting/all star level talent that could help right now! ALL of them returning future value and/or young players/reclamation projects.

This just doesn't make ANY sense. We are rebuilding. This has been the conscious plan/decision from the very start of the off-season IMO. Now that doesn't automatically mean we should trade Mitchell right away. If the Jazz are not getting the deal they think he's worth, I don't mind them waiting for a team to pony up what we actually want. But make no mistake - we are rebuilding and IMO Mitchell is not long for the Jazz.

 

[framer]

It is entirely possible they intend to build around Don, starting AFTER this season. If we had Vic or Scoot with Don plus a ton of cap space we would be in a good position. Better than without Don. At that point our leverage with Mitchell suitors would be the highest.

 

[Jazz Fusion]

The Jazz traded Rudy because they got a generational return for him. Too good to pass up.

That deal kept K.D. in Brooklyn.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

IMO this is such a HUGE decision about the direction of the team that you cannot allow one offer, even it if was this good to dictate what you do. This decision needed to include the following steps and considerations:\
1. Ask yourself - is this core good enough to compete at the highest level. If the answer is yes - make moves around the margin to complement our best players. If the answer is yes, you do NOT trade Gobert, even for that package... ESPECIALLY for that package where the value is mostly in future assets. Obviously the answer here was no.
2. Ask yourself - can we retool around either of our core pieces quick enough before their contract is out and/or they ask out? IMO this is where this narrative fails completely. "we traded Rudy not because we didn't believe we can compete with this core, but because the offer was so good"(BTW I agree the offer was good but that offer guarantees ZERO impact players for this team for the duration of Mitchell's contract and/or before he asks out). IMO if you believe in Rudy as a cornerstone and a key piece in this iteration of Jazz basketball... you simply don't trade him. Not unless you think your contending window is over(IMO this is what happened). OK, now we've determined the FO thought at least Rudy was not part of the next contending Jazz team.
3. Are we retooling around Mitchell? With the slight exception of some buzz about Collin Sexton interest, the reports are that the Jazz have not made ANY attempts to strengthen the roster in the short term. We have no starting level center and we haven't even tried to get one. We have made 3 moves this off-season(Royce, Rudy, Beverley). ALL of them shipping out starting/all star level talent that could help right now! ALL of them returning future value and/or young players/reclamation projects.

This just doesn't make ANY sense. We are rebuilding. This has been the conscious plan/decision from the very start of the off-season IMO. Now that doesn't automatically mean we should trade Mitchell right away. If the Jazz are not getting the deal they think he's worth, I don't mind them waiting for a team to pony up what we actually want. But make no mistake - we are rebuilding and IMO Mitchell is not long for the Jazz.

Look I was team tank real early... been arguing with folks on it prior to the Rudy deal. It was always the easier path. I think it was rational to think if we got some young players on the brink of breaking out that you put it around Donovan and keep some guys and see what happens. Most the early rumors on a Rudy trade were around actual players as the main course and picks on the side. When none of those deals materialized then a big offer comes but doesn't bring back any current building blocks you pivot.

I think the Royce move was a slight tell... but if we had kept Rudy I could still just see that being the move we got a fluid asset and allowed us to duck the tax.

Doesn't mean a rebuild wasn't in the cards for the next 12-24 months... means you delay the decision and try a few things before completely giving in. It was more credible before... but even I was like "why are we delaying the inevitable?". So I can also buy the theory that the tank may have been the preferred path. I can buy that some things are flexible and will be dictated by the market too.

At this point it feel like we are selling wolf tickets. I feel we trade Donovan unless the Knicks offer is just ****... we might have to hold him a little longer than we like but it is less than ideal for a ton of reasons and he'd still very much out on the market.

I am team tank... have been an early adopter... you can go back to a thread where I said the Knicks were at the cross section of hope and desperation. I am somewhat shocked we went that way as most teams do the tear down a year too late rather than a year before they have to... I think the premium we got may have been the deciding factor.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It is entirely possible they intend to build around Don, starting AFTER this season. If we had Vic or Scoot with Don plus a ton of cap space we would be in a good position. Better than without Don. At that point our leverage with Mitchell suitors would be the highest.

I'm not going to say what is possible and isn't... I have some wild *** theories myself. I think that would be a really flawed plan and getting 85% of what you are asking for is a better plan.

As a leverage play... every year we lose a year on Don's deal we lose leverage. The trade demands and preferred destinations become much more real. If it gets to the point where he has one year left on his deal because teams called your bluff then the returns will be so much less.

Right now he is playing nice... he has 3 years left on his deal. The only thing we lack is a couple more suitors... there is a chance some emerge but there is also a chance the Knicks end up pursuing someone else. I think there is middle ground on the Knicks deal... I think that is very much preferable to just digging in and getting everything we are asking for or else no deal.

 

[gomretat]

The Jazz traded Rudy because they got a generational return for him. Too good to pass up.

Hope you are right. Seems to me that the odds of getting really good picks and getting all stars who are as good as Rudy and Donavon with theses picks is not nearly as high as people want to believe. Ainge did it once but I still dont see the odds being in our favor. It is easy to imagine that 3 or 4 years from now we dont have anyone as good as the two guys we were anxious to get rid of.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hope you are right. Seems to me that the odds of getting really good picks and getting all stars who are as good as Rudy and Donavon with theses picks is not nearly as high as people want to believe. Ainge did it once but I still dont see the odds being in our favor. It is easy to imagine that 3 or 4 years from now we dont have anyone as good as the two guys we were anxious to get rid of.

May not get them with those specific picks but with our picks and the assets we have accumulated we should be able to build something great again.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Hope you are right. Seems to me that the odds of getting really good picks and getting all stars who are as good as Rudy and Donavon with theses picks is not nearly as high as people want to believe. Ainge did it once but I still dont see the odds being in our favor. It is easy to imagine that 3 or 4 years from now we dont have anyone as good as the two guys we were anxious to get rid of.

As opposed to what? Being a perennial 1st or 2nd round exit with no assets to use to improve?

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I think it happens right around training camp.

3 unprotected
1 protected
3 swaps
Fournier, Toppin, Quickley (routed to Lakers?)

I think the point that HH raises about the cloud hanging over the Knicks’ players is legit, and I don’t think they have the courage or wherewithal to run with it and tank. So if they’re not gonna do that, they kinda gotta pull the trigger.

On the other side, I do have concerns Ainge is kind of insane and I hope rationality wins out if a good offer is on the table.

This is so dumb. If they won’t pay our price, you absolutely keep Don through the regular season, and still tank for a top 1-3 pick. Yes Don’s a star but he’s not winning anything without even a somewhat decent team around him. I don’t want to here but Don is to good, there’s no “I” in team. We have all the leverage. If the Knicks wait they run the risk of actually getting into a bidding war down the line.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we were going to build around Donovan and truly selling that narrative the THT trade becomes one of the dumbest fliers ever. A guy that only has value with the ball in his hands on offense... otherwise he murders your spacing. He also cuts into 11M of space. I have said we will have infinity space... that assumes a Donovan trade. Keeping Donovan we end up with like 25M in space after the THT deal. That assumes you waive Bogey's bird rights... who while old is like top 10 on the unrestricted FA list for next year. Also assumes you don't pick up Beasley's option. So we gambled a key part of our flexibility next year for what? A flier on THT? They can say whatever they want... I ain't buying it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is so dumb. If they won’t pay our price, you absolutely keep Don through the regular season, and still tank for a top 1-3 pick. Yes Don’s a star but he’s not winning anything without even a somewhat decent team around him. I don’t want to here but Don is to good, there’s no “I” in team. We have all the leverage. If the Knicks wait they run the risk of actually getting into a bidding war down the line.

this line of logic assumes a few things:

1- we offload Bogey and other vets while keeping Donovan. Because if we keep Mike, Don, Bogey, JC then we absolutely win 30-35 games.
2- If we offload those guys and keep Don that he's cool being on a ****** team and getting SGA'd
3- We will find another suitor in a year... that is okay paying more than the Knicks or at least as much for Donovan on a two year deal... when that team is likely not on his list. Yeah I know we don't care about his list... but the acquirer does... especially with 2 years left.
4- No injuries occur. A mid season ACL tear basically tanks all his value... so hope risking that extra unprotected pick was worth losing the whole basket of assets.

Each side needs to push a little more into the middle. Both sides have some leverage... Both sides should be motivated to end this sooner than later. This whole line of thinking that "you meet my demands or no dice" drips with alpha BS that is counterproductive to what both sides need.

 

[framer]

I'm not going to say what is possible and isn't... I have some wild *** theories myself. I think that would be a really flawed plan and getting 85% of what you are asking for is a better plan.

As a leverage play... every year we lose a year on Don's deal we lose leverage. The trade demands and preferred destinations become much more real. If it gets to the point where he has one year left on his deal because teams called your bluff then the returns will be so much less.

Right now he is playing nice... he has 3 years left on his deal. The only thing we lack is a couple more suitors... there is a chance some emerge but there is also a chance the Knicks end up pursuing someone else. I think there is middle ground on the Knicks deal... I think that is very much preferable to just digging in and getting everything we are asking for or else no deal.

No, the Knicks will still have assets next year as will a number of other teams. The only downside is if Mitchell has a career ending injury. If we "can only deal with the Knicks" I would argue that that would be the absolute worst time to sell. Likely though, the Knicks will just pay a fair price and we move on. If not, I'm not selling at a discount, not to those losers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The staring contest here is understandable for the next 4-5 weeks. If the Jazz come in and say "fine 3 unprotected picks, 2 protected picks, IQ/Toppin and a swap" that becomes the new baseline that the Knicks can bargain against. If Knicks come up and offer that to the Jazz they risk Danny saying "cool... that plus Grimes or 1 more protected pick".

I get it... but at some point one side needs to slide a little to get it done.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No, the Knicks will still have assets next year as will a number of other teams. The only downside is if Mitchell has a career ending injury. If we "can only deal with the Knicks" I would argue that that would be the absolute worst time to sell. Likely though, the Knicks will just pay a fair price and we move on. If not, I'm not selling at a discount, not to those losers.

Next year with 2 years left on this deal and says his preferred destinations are Brooklyn, Miami and NY those teams are going to step up their offers? Other suitors are going to jump in and will have gained enough assets in 12 months to beat other offers. Miami is interested now... in 12 months they ain't gonna have much more.

Doesn't even take a career ending injury. A torn ACL midseason knocks him out for 50% of his remaining deal at that point... also severely hurts the other 50% of his deal. You are looking at damn near a total loss in that scenario.

There are some scenarios where we gain leverage... but there are far more scenarios where we lose leverage imo. We have a depreciating asset. We are likely asking over market too... if they get in the right price range we should sell... even if its a slight discount on what we were asking.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Next year with 2 years left on this deal and says his preferred destinations are Brooklyn, Miami and NY those teams are going to step up their offers? Other suitors are going to jump in and will have gained enough assets in 12 months to beat other offers. Miami is interested now... in 12 months they ain't gonna have much more.

Doesn't even take a career ending injury. A torn ACL midseason knocks him out for 50% of his remaining deal at that point... also severely hurts the other 50% of his deal. You are looking at damn near a total loss in that scenario.

There are some scenarios where we gain leverage... but there are far more scenarios where we lose leverage imo. We have a depreciating asset. We are likely asking over market too... if they get in the right price range we should sell... even if its a slight discount on what we were asking.

I’m not even sure there are a ton of ways we gain leverage unless Mitchell goes nuclear and averages 30 for the season and there are more suitors.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I’m not even sure there are a ton of ways we gain leverage unless Mitchell goes nuclear and averages 30 for the season and there are more suitors.

It's basically just another team comes with a big offer... then maybe Knicks beat it. 3 unprotected picks, 2 protected, a swap, and two solid young players like Toppin/IQ is what I bet the final offer comes in at for NY before the season. We think someone comes with more than that? Are Knicks going to beat it.

Pigs get fed... hogs get slaughtered.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Well, then it would be a mistake to not be terrible in '25 because the pick would just slide over to that year.

And then it would be a mistake to not be terrible in '26 because of the protected pick.

Is one draft pick worth being bad for 3 years?

We will have picks in other years. And rebuilds require patience. Going for it in ‘24 would be foolish.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is so dumb. If they won’t pay our price, you absolutely keep Don through the regular season, and still tank for a top 1-3 pick. Yes Don’s a star but he’s not winning anything without even a somewhat decent team around him. I don’t want to here but Don is to good, there’s no “I” in team. We have all the leverage. If the Knicks wait they run the risk of actually getting into a bidding war down the line.

The Gobert trade has rotted everyone’s brains. This is a fire offer. Ainge crippled the Nets with a smaller package and the Nets were a better team than the Knicks.

 

[homeytennis]

Oh dear God just make this all stop!!!!