My hope would be that Burke/Lyles would get it done.
Trades do happen before the deadline. If their season should be aborted, it will be apparent before then. It's not a given that the trade would have to wait until February, so it could be closer to two full seasons with Hill.
And, of course, there is still the chance of him being willing to re-sign.
In terms of Exum, I think one year backing up Hill after he recovers from his injury would be just fine. You can't have young talent coming off the bench for too long like we did in the Corbin era.
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I don't think Treys would get it done. I assume Indiana would want players with high ceiling if they're blowing up the team. Lyles is a complete unknown (without much hype), and Burke might grow into a below average starter one day. I think they would want something better for Hill.