Jazz get james harden

[theNBAnerd]

I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about here, but it's not quite that simple. The restrictions on tax payers still make it so teams have to take a harder look at who they throw that kind of money at.

yeah, the new tax basically means that you can in no way afford to pay three guys max contracts unles the rest of your team is on minimum deals. for OKC to give max deals to durant, westbrook and harden and give a decent extension to ibaka, they would be submitting themselves to a ridiculous tax bill that, with repeat offender levels, could get as high $4 or $5 for every dollar spent once they start approaching the dallas/lakers salary level.

and the max salary doesn't go down at all in the new CBA -- it's still the same percentage of the cap, except that young max free agents can make MORE if they meet certain criteria (the derrick rose rule).

not to mention the cap is more than 10% lower than before, relative to league revenues.

 

[franklin]

you might be right that somebody will give him the max. but i'm pretty sure i'll be right that they'll regret it.

Agree with this.

To clarify, they're not going to regret overpaying Harden like Atlanta is with Joe Johnson, Memphis with Rudy Gay, or Bulls are with less-than-max Boozer. Harden is most likely not going to fall off in years 3 and 4 like older veterans tend to. Joe Johnson is going on his 13th year, Harden's fourth.

There are also teams very willing to overpay a guy like Harden if it gives them the piece needed to compete. Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Clippers, all would have been more than happy to overpay Harden last season because he would have been the missing scoring option.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Is Harden worth max money? I think that is a hard question. I love his efficiency, but can he do that with increased touches and possessions?

I would actually so no for the Thunder, but yes for us. Unless they have some plan to get rid of Westbrook, I just don't see how paying 3 perimeter scorers works out for them in the long run.

I think looking down the line the only other max player we (potentially) have is Favors since big guys who are athletic and play defense get paid 10 million per year even if they aren't that good. Kanter has the potential to be a highly paid player for the same reason, but he has a lot more to show to get that.

Hayward and Millsap will probably be in the 8-10 million range. Burks could be too down the line.

 

[theNBAnerd]

To clarify, they're not going to regret overpaying Harden like Atlanta is with Joe Johnson, Memphis with Rudy Gay, or Bulls are with less-than-max Boozer. Harden is most likely not going to fall off in years 3 and 4 like older veterans tend to. Joe Johnson is going on his 13th year, Harden's fourth.

There are also teams very willing to overpay a guy like Harden if it gives them the piece needed to compete. Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Clippers, all would have been more than happy to overpay Harden last season because he would have been the missing scoring option.

rudy gay isn't an "older veteran."

in fact, i almost used the rudy gay example -- a guy who got max money even though he'll never carry a team. except that i think gay, in absolute terms, is far better than harden... and STILL will tie up memphis' options with that max deal.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Is Harden worth max money? I think that is a hard question. I love his efficiency, but can he do that with increased touches and possessions?

hollinger's fluke rule math says that his efficiency this year was a statistical anomaly, not the new norm.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

hollinger's fluke rule math says that his efficiency this year was a statistical anomaly, not the new norm.

That is what I would assume. He averaged 1.66 points per FGA this year, which is ridiculous. Too put into perspective, Ginobili never got that high. I think Ginobili's highest was around 1.55.

He will still probably put up good #'s though and it's not impossible for him to get even better.

 

[utahjazz107]

Harden has no virtually no mid range game. If we offer him max money, I want to know he can score from there because when you need a game winning FG, it's usually a mid range jumper.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/11/sports/basketball/nba-shot-analysis.html?src=tp

Harden is definitely a max player if he can develop a mid range game - look at that 3 ball. WET!

 

[franklin]

rudy gay isn't an "older veteran."

in fact, i almost used the rudy gay example -- a guy who got max money even though he'll never carry a team. except that i think gay, in absolute terms, is far better than harden... and STILL will tie up memphis' options with that max deal.

Don't you think you're being a bit nitpicky here? Memphis doesn't have a top 10 player so they can't really afford to overpay for a guy like Harden or Gay as their go to guy. On the other hand, if you already have Derrick Rose or Dirk Nowitzki...

One situation does not apply to every single team. Using the Boozer example, Chicago should be willing to overpay him because they have a shot at a title. They may regret giving him the contract instead of someone else, but they are still satisfied knowing they've built a team with potential to win it all. Example 2, deep pockets Brooklyn should be willing to overpay Harden if they have already secured D-Will and Dwight Howard.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Harden has no virtually no mid range game. If we offer him max money, I want to know he can score from there because when you need a game winning FG, it's usually a mid range jumper.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/11/sports/basketball/nba-shot-analysis.html?src=tp

Harden is definitely a max player if he can develop a mid range game - look at that 3 ball. WET!

He doesn't attempt the worst shot in basketball? Awesome.

 

[utahjazz107]

He doesn't attempt the worst shot in basketball? Awesome.

Not the point I'm making. I was saying I would like to know if Harden has a mid range game before giving him a max deal.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Don't you think you're being a bit nitpicky here? Memphis doesn't have a top 10 player so they can't really afford to overpay for a guy like Harden or Gay as their go to guy. On the other hand, if you already have Derrick Rose or Dirk Nowitzki...

One situation does not apply to every single team. Using the Boozer example, Chicago should be willing to overpay him because they have a shot at a title. They may regret giving him the contract instead of someone else, but they are still satisfied knowing they've built a team with potential to win it all. Example 2, deep pockets Brooklyn should be willing to overpay Harden if they have already secured D-Will and Dwight Howard.

when you're talking about max money, i think it's ok to be nitpicky. i don't see harden ever being a top-2 guy on a title team, so if i were running a team, i wouldn't offer him a pile of money as though he was that guy.

 

[theNBAnerd]

He doesn't attempt the worst shot in basketball? Awesome.

Not the point I'm making. I was saying I would like to know if Harden has a mid range game before giving him a max deal.

exactly. hollinger did a study earlier this year where he pointed out that the midrange jumper - whether it goes in or not - is the single most important indicator of a team's offensive efficiency. you can't have an elite offensive, or even a decent one, unless you have guys that the defense has to respect from 15-18 feet.

 

[franklin]

when you're talking about max money, i think it's ok to be nitpicky. i don't see harden ever being a top-2 guy on a title team, so if i were running a team, i wouldn't offer him a pile of money as though he was that guy.

Yeah, nitpicky and evasive.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Yeah, nitpicky and evasive.

how am i being evasive? this CBA does not allow you to overpay 3-4 guys on the same team. you have to be smarter with what your non-franchise player makes. to me, harden lacks too many of the things that make a guy max material.

 

[utahjazz107]

Burks, Harden, Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Millsap and assuming we can land more rookies for Harris and Jefferson. I think we could easily win a title, a lot of title teams don't have a defined superstar. Look at the old Pistons dynasty, they went to 8 straight ECF's and Billups was their best player.

 

[GVC]

this CBA does not allow you to overpay 3-4 guys on the same team.

You can still get away with paying 3 guys the 0-6 year max, even if their contracts aren't staggered and they're given max raises, and have roughly $20mm of space under the tax (in the 5th year of those contracts). That's enough to sign 3 half decent role players before filling out the roster with cheap rookies and minimum salary players.

 

[green]

Why would we offer Harden the max, when we have his statistical clone already on the team, and we could probably have him for half the cost of Harden? Unless Hayward flops this next year, Harden is redundant to this team and expensive.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Why would we offer Harden the max, when we have his statistical clone already on the team, and we could probably have him for half the cost of Harden? Unless Hayward flops this next year, Harden is redundant to this team and expensive.

1- Hayward has had STRETCHES of good play. Calling him the same player as Harden is counting an egg that hasn't hatched
2- What on earth is wrong with having two super efficient and smart players? The reason players like Harden are so important is that they know how to play with others and don't levy a tax on their team in terms of possessions used. I can't think of a better "problem" to have than having two wings that play the game that Harden does.

 

[NUMBERICA]

when you're talking about max money, i think it's ok to be nitpicky. i don't see harden ever being a top-2 guy on a title team, so if i were running a team, i wouldn't offer him a pile of money as though he was that guy.

Harden is already the second best player (or well into the running) on a championship-calibre team.

 

[theNBAnerd]

You can still get away with paying 3 guys the 0-6 year max, even if their contracts aren't staggered and they're given max raises, and have roughly $20mm of space under the tax (in the 5th year of those contracts). That's enough to sign 3 half decent role players before filling out the roster with cheap rookies and minimum salary players.

first of all, westbrook won't make the 0-6 year max because the derrick rose rule says that, as an all-nba guy, he qualifies to jump straight to the 7-9 year max. so his extension will START around 16M. harden would probably make just the 25% max (the 0-6 you mention) which means a starting salary of 13-14, depending on what happens to the cap. kevin durant's salary is already on the books for 17.5, 18.8, 20, 21.2. let's say ibaka commands an extension starting in the 8-10M range. here's what you'd have:

2013-14: KD 18.8M, westbrook 17.2M (he'd be on the second year), harden 14M, ibaka 9M... that's 59M for those four alone
2014-15: KD 20M, westbrook 18.4M, harden 15M, ibaka 9.7M... that's 63M for the four of them
2015-16: KD 21.2M, westrook 19.6M, harden 16.1M, ibaka 10.4M... that's 67.3M for the four of them

that makes it pretty much impossible to keep those four and avoid the luxury tax. and since they'd would exceed in three straight years, they would pay the "repeater" premium where they pay $2.50 for every dollar above the tax. a team in a market like OKC just can't do that.

that's without even mentioning that in 2016, KD will be a free agent eligible for a max contract starting at 22.3 million, right when westbrook is hitting 20.8M, harden 17.1M, and ibaka 11.1M... to keep durant in that scenario, they would have to commit to 71.3M to just those four players, meaning every single player they signed to complement those four would cost 3.5X whatever their actual salary amount was.