Jazz get james harden

[GVC]

first of all, westbrook won't make the 0-6 year max because the derrick rose rule says that, as an all-nba guy, he qualifies to jump straight to the 7-9 year max. so his extension will START around 16M.

This is incorrect. He's already been extended at the 25% max. Also, keep in mind that max contracts aren't actually worth 25/30/35% of the cap, as 42.14% BRI is used (instead of the 44.74% for the cap) in determining the value of max contracts. The 0-6 year max started at $12.9mm this season.

I agree that 4 max (or near max) players isn't doable, but the Thunder can certainly hold onto 3 for a few more years.

edit: FWIW, my calculations aren't perfect in my last post, although I think it's safe to predict some growth in BRI moving forward. Three 0-6 max players, somewhat staggered, with max raises and meager to moderate BRI growth, should still leave a team with about $20mm to spend under the tax.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Harden is already the second best player (or well into the running) on a championship-calibre team.

no he's not. he's a distant third in scoring and minutes, he's fifth in rebounding, and he's also third in PER. all those rankings hold up whether you look at regular season numbers or playoff numbers.

and again, that's taking into account a flukey good shooting year, where both westbrook and durant have improved steadily and sustainably.

there is no objective measure by which you can prove that harden is anything but OKC's third-best offensive option... and again, he doesn't defend.

 

[Dr. Jones]

^^^ That's what I was just about to say. Oh well .. thanks, GVC, for taking the words right outta my mouth.

/thelies

 

[theNBAnerd]

This is incorrect. He's already been extended at the 25% max. Also, keep in mind that max contracts aren't actually worth 25/30/35% of the cap, as 42.14% BRI is used (instead of the 44.74% for the cap) in determining the value of max contracts. The 0-6 year max started at $12.9mm this season.

I agree that 4 max (or near max) players isn't doable, but the Thunder can certainly hold onto 3 for a few more years.

ah you're right... i thought he had been all-NBA twice before he signed. turns out last year was his first all-NBA selection, so the derrick rose rule doesn't apply to him.

still, lop off a couple million and it doesn't change things. OKC can't afford max deals for those three while still paying ibaka, even if the rest of their guys are rookie contracts or near-minimum scrubs.

 

[GVC]

still, lop off a couple million and it doesn't change things. OKC can't afford max deals for those three while still paying ibaka, even if the rest of their guys are rookie contracts or near-minimum scrubs.

It might be possible for the 13/14 season. If the BRI projection for next season is the same as it was for this past season, Westbrook's max extension will start at about $13mm. KD and Westbrook would be due about $32mm in 13/14. Adding $23mm for Harden and Ibaka brings the Thunder's payroll to $55mm. With a Cap/Tax around $53/63.5mm they'd have $8.5mm to spend on 9 players. Pretty ****ing tough, but still doable.

I agree with you in principle, of course. The Thunder are going to have to let one of the two go at the very least.

 

[franklin]

no he's not. he's a distant third in scoring and minutes, he's fifth in rebounding, and he's also third in PER. all those rankings hold up whether you look at regular season numbers or playoff numbers.

and again, that's taking into account a flukey good shooting year, where both westbrook and durant have improved steadily and sustainably.

there is no objective measure by which you can prove that harden is anything but OKC's third-best offensive option... and again, he doesn't defend.

He shoots half the shots Westbrook does and gets to the line more and shoots a higher percentage when there. He shoots a grand total of 0.3 less FT's per 36 minutes than Durant. Harden averages 4.2 assists per 36 compared to 5.6 for Westbrook, who controls the ball A LOT more. The FT's and assists support a case for Harden being as good as advertised and not simply a product of Westbrook and Durant's court presence.

As far as PER goes, how many minutes does he play with Durant compared to Westbrook?

 

[GVC]

He shoots half the shots Westbrook does and gets to the line more and shoots a higher percentage when there. He shoots a grand total of 0.3 less FT's per 36 minutes than Durant. Harden averages 4.2 assists per 36 compared to 5.6 for Westbrook, who controls the ball A LOT more. The FT's and assists support a case for Harden being as good as advertised and not simply a product of Westbrook and Durant's court presence.

He kills Westbrook in Win Shares, Win Shares/48 and adjusted +/- as well. There are plenty of measures by which Harden is at least as good as Westbrook. You can certainly make a case for either player.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The only question for Harden is that can he continue the efficiency with a larger amount of possessions and without Durant and Westbrook taking a lot of attention/pressure off of him. Obviously the efficiency would drop a little bit, but if he could stay in the same range, I think he would be worth max.

 

[JayCamjazzfan]

I think Westbrook and harden are very similar players and that if they extend harden then they will trade Westbrook or they trade harden. They shouldn't give three perimeter players max contracts. It just doesn't make sense. I think they need a low post scorer(al Jefferson) and a pass first pg(jose calderon)who can feed harden cook selflosha and Durant for open outside shots without being able to leave the offensive post player( al Jefferson) open for easy buckets. They would be an offensive powerhouse. All they have to do is give us Westbrook for al Jefferson. Haha in my dreams

 

[freakazoid]

There are also teams very willing to overpay a guy like Harden if it gives them the piece needed to compete. Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Clippers, all would have been more than happy to overpay Harden last season because he would have been the missing scoring option.

Utah may very well end up having to overpay somebody, but I'm still a little leery of throwing max money at Harden. Don't get me wrong, though, as I certainly don't want the FO to be so cautious that we end up with good deals on mediocre players.

 

[franklin]

One thing I will say, is that Utah is probably going to end up having to overpay somebody, regardless.

Wouldn't-have-been-necessary-had-they-sold-Jefferson-for-a-pick-and-tanked-,-therefore-securing-a-top-five-pick-along-with-the-GSW-pick-and-at-least-another-for-Jefferson-end-thread.

 

[shadler]

Harden = cj miles

 

[green]

Harden is already the second best player (or well into the running) on a championship-calibre team.

The last two games have shown otherwise. Westbrook is a superstar. Harden has shown he is an outstanding role player. Still waiting for him to step up in this series.

Hayward went 2-10 (or very similar) a couple of times in the playoffs as well.

 

[freakazoid]

Wouldn't-have-been-necessary-had-they-sold-Jefferson-for-a-pick-and-tanked-,-therefore-securing-a-top-five-pick-along-with-the-GSW-pick-and-at-least-another-for-Jefferson-end-thread.

Interesting idea. I will have to put some more thought into this and get back to you. Maybe the Jazz should consider something like this in 12 or 13 years if things don't work out.

 

[freakazoid]

Westbrook is a superstar.

He's a terrific player, no doubt. But even if OKC did put themselves in a position to win over Miami, you never know when he's going to have one of those games where they lose because he forgets for half a game that KD is on his team. In order to be a true superstar, he's going to have to get over that kind of stupidity.

 

[Xsy]

Harden's inexperience is showing hardcore this series.

 

[cowhide]

Harden's poor play is the reason why OKC is down 3-1. He is a good player but like I said before there is no way he is a MAX guy. I think he will get better but he seems like more of a complimentary player instead of a superstar.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

At one point Harden had to pull up for a pretty important midrange shot and totally clanked it. Props to BR for bringing that up.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

He's a terrific player, no doubt. But even if OKC did put themselves in a position to win over Miami, you never know when he's going to have one of those games where they lose because he forgets for half a game that KD is on his team. In order to be a true superstar, he's going to have to get over that kind of stupidity.

Yeah, but do you hold on to Westbrook and hope he develops, or do you hold on to Harden?

Not that Harden is a finished product by any means, but he seems to have a smaller ceiling to me. If Westbrook can just get his game under control more, and pick and choose instead of always attacking all out, he could be great.

 

[green]

Yeah, but do you hold on to Westbrook and hope he develops, or do you hold on to Harden?

Not that Harden is a finished product by any means, but he seems to have a smaller ceiling to me. If Westbrook can just get his game under control more, and pick and choose instead of always attacking all out, he could be great.

After watching this series, you have to keep Westbrook. You know that Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka can get you to the finals. What OKC should do is try to trade Harden for a top 10 pick, then draft another sg to keep another talented player on a rookie contract. I don't know if there is a player that fits that mold this year, or if it should be next year, but that way they keep top 10 talent in that position, but keep that talent on a rookie contract.