Mock Draft 3.0 (Full Draft)

[Handlogten's Heros]

Jesus christ dude. No one here is David Locke. Who is most? Who has even said an actual W/L number?

You think when dudes are like IDK we could "tank" they are thinking we lose 2-3 games more next year and get that 8th or 9th pick...

Imagine JZ and DA... "hey we got all this space but lets kinda punt on adding talent with it... we may not be bottom 7 bad but if we roll out and get a pick in the 8-10 range then that is pretty great... and all it costs is one year on Lauri's cheap contract, punting on 50M in space, and punting on a year of our cheap contributing starting center"

Mother effer DA and JZ are more likely thinking about how to get Jaylen Brown in the damn door than that ********.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also factor in if Utah does flat out try to make the PO full stop, we are going to give OKC a very good mid teens pick vs if we wait a season and are truly ready to be an elite team, we can give them a pick in the 20s

 

[default]

Jesus christ dude. No one here is David Locke. Who is most? Who has even said an actual W/L number?

We will win 45 games next season. Heck I don't even know who will be on the team, but I'm calling my shot.

 

[NUMBERICA]

And factor in this might be the last chance Utah can get a top 10 pick.

That being said, I think they go for it this upcoming year. I do not think they did that this year top to bottom as an organization. I suspect Ainge was letting it play out as a leverage move and that he could cram the tank to end the year which he was mostly-wrong on both points.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Or that Jonas Valanciunas would be Pau Gasol with fire.

(Cy of course has made a ton of crazy correct draft calls.)

Calling out my Jonas love is a deep cut and I appreciate that. Would have been a better pick than Kanter!

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

That being said, I think they go for it this upcoming year. I do not think they did that this year top to bottom as an organization. I suspect Ainge was letting it play out as a leverage move and that he could cram the tank to end the year which he was mostly-wrong on both points.

My main take is what happens if we cant get any of the worthwhile free agents?

IF we can get a Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, FVV, etc then I see really going for it. If we cant... what's the point really? Let it bake one more year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The other angle here is that having one top-10 pick in ‘24 and two 1sts in ‘25 >>> zero picks in ‘24 and three (likely non-lottery) picks in ‘25.

I just don't think the FO is thinking about that... If you buy into the draft experts projections then the 2024 draft is bad and 2025 is good (iirc). We also might start spining our wheels lose Lauri somewhere in this mediocre process and now you are risking the pick swaps in 2026 (which may or may not have value).

I think they march into the summer looking to use 40-50M in FA and trades efficiently. That might yield a trade for Collins or Duncan Robinson that gets some stuff... or it might mean signing Gary Trent Jr. and Max Strus (thinking of very median options on purpose) and keeping some powder dry. thinking we will go full tank means you are punting on a lot of those options. Thinking the front office will target a tank-lite scenario... would mean the FO is pretty dumb.

Now say Lauri or Kessler miss 50 games next year... we let JC walk and then strike out completely in FA and trade... then you can tell me we ended up 4-8 but that was not the plan from where we sit.

 

[fishonjazz]

@Bawse Dawg go ahead and ask me any questions you like and I will answer them (you acted upset that I didn't address your points so this your opportunity to get me to if you want to). As for your answer to my first question:

1. Do you think we will sit healthy starters next season like we did this season? - Every single NBA team does, so probably. I dont think every single nba team sits starters for like 20 games straight like the jazz did with Sexton and Clarkson. I think that was the jazz tanking, not doing load management like I believe you are speaking of when you say "every single nba team does."

 

[NUMBERICA]

My main take is what happens if we cant get any of the worthwhile free agents?

IF we can get a Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, FVV, etc then I see really going for it. If we cant... what's the point really? Let it bake one more year.

I think there is an in-between area: Jazz make a modest FA signing, then rent the cap space for some future-facing assets. Simultaneously, they are trying to win games, Walker and/or Ochai likely get noticeably better, team is more gelled, there is more depth, and trade rumors might not be popping off all year either.

And like, straight up, what if the Jazz just have a tier-1 front office and developmental staff now? Not one player was a disappointment last year while there were CRAZY developmental wins (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai, THT, Dunn). If this organization just shed its skin as a thoroughly 2nd tier organization and became a thoroughly 1st tier? If they hit on their picks this year? I think we’re sniffing 50 wins with room to grow.

It could go either way but I think they have a jump this year.

 

[fishonjazz]

Yall really think Utah is the only team that will have internal improvement or become healthy lmfao

Did someone say that?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Did someone say that?

How certain people acting

 

[fishonjazz]

The Jazz tried to win games this year as well before pushing the tank forward.

I disagree. I think trading rudy and donovan and royce and bogey was done with the intention of not winning games. I think those moves were a big reason why you, and nearly everyone, thought we would suck.

 

[fishonjazz]

How certain people acting

I dont think anyone is acting like that. I think everyone understands that some teams will be healthier and some less healthy and some will have internal improvement and some will get worse internally. I think we are just discussing the jazz this season vs next season.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think there is an in-between area: Jazz make a modest FA signing, then rent the cap space for some future-facing assets. Simultaneously, they are trying to win games, Walker and/or Ochai likely get noticeably better, team is more gelled, there is more depth, and trade rumors might not be popping off all year either.

And like, straight up, what if the Jazz just have a tier-1 front office and developmental staff now? Not one player was a disappointment last year while there were CRAZY developmental wins (Lauri, Kessler, Ochai, THT, Dunn). If this organization just shed its skin as a thoroughly 2nd tier organization and became a thoroughly 1st tier? If they hit on their picks this year? I think we’re sniffing 50 wins with room to grow.

It could go either way but I think they have a jump this year.

Put yourself in Danny's shoes... as he looking at ways to use his enormous cap flexibility is he getting hard looking at getting Evan Fournier and 4 second round picks?

I think they look big difference makers first. Then look at youngish mid tier guys to sign to deals in the 10-25M range. At the draft I can see them taking on John collins or Bertans or Robinson to move up from 28-late lotto... or to move from 16 to 10 with the Mavs.

The part of this plan is going after guys like OG or Murray and using the cap space to sign them to extensions their current teams cannot offer.

If all of this falls through... and no FA will take our money... and no trades materialize... then we rent out our space for a middling return. That is the darkest timeline and is what would lead us to ending up with 25-30ish wins based on how healthy we are or aren't.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

@Bawse Dawg go ahead and ask me any questions you like and I will answer them (you acted upset that I didn't address your points so this your opportunity to get me to if you want to). As for your answer to my first question:

I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating possible scenarios. I put many reasons why it’s possible the Jazz are not as good as expected next season, and I felt they were logical points. But you didn’t address them.

Yes, the Jazz made tanking moves that cost them some wins in the second half of the season. We agree on that. None of the points I made were addressed. Do you disagree with them? Do you not feel they are applicable to our situation? It’s just weird to have a conversation where only one person is addressing points the other is making.

 

[whatthe]

I think they are lowering expectations and want to be in a opportunity seeking mode as long as possible.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

How certain people acting

Who? If you asked me if we are closer to 26/36/46 I think its 36 for sure. I also don't think the FO is dumb enough to do another year of hoping for tank lite as you are projecting.

Does that mean they go all-in? Nope... but again they will be opportunistic and if the best opportunities are "we collected ****** contracts for some mediocre draft assets" well that is a pretty catastrophic fail.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think they are lowering expectations and want to be in a opportunity seeking mode as long as possible.

they aren't gonna try and make fetch happen... is how I read the stuff they have said and done. So they aren't sending all those picks out to get Beal or some spendy vet. I think they will be patiently aggressive... if the right opportunities come they will be really aggressive... if not they will be patient. Patience to me would mean looking for guys they can get that are part of the future and/or on good tradeable contracts. Maybe they collect some draft assets but I doubt that is number 1 on the priority list with what we already have.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Is @Jingled up with Toronto?

 

[Jingled]

And that's the most likely scenario.

I don't agree...I think we're going to be better than that.