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Smartphones to replace computers soon

KrazeeEyezKilla said:
I was going to point this out but it was obvious Salty would just say, "It's not a laptop, it's a docking station. Look at what it's called." But yeah, it's a ****ing laptop.
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If it's a laptop then it should work without the phone, right?


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
Yeah. Without the smartphone, the docking station is just a hunk of glass and plastic. I mean the phone does the computing right? Hence, Smartphones will replace computers soon. Or at least exist as a formidable alternative.

I mean hell, my overclocked phone has more GHz in it's processor than the desktop I used up until 2009.

Even though I avoid most apps like the plague, I'm tempted to download tapatalk and post from my Captivate simply out of spite.
 
balli said:
Yeah. Without the smartphone, the docking station is just a hunk of glass and plastic. I mean the phone does the computing right? Hence, Smartphones will replace computers soon. Or at least exist as a formidable alternative.

I mean hell, my overclocked phone has more GHz in it's processor than the desktop I used up until 2009.

Even though I avoid most apps like the plague, I'm tempted to download tapatalk and post from my Captivate simply out of spite.
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If you start using tapatalk you'll never want to use the phone browser for message boards again.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
I am still curious as to what "soon" means. 400 million PCs sold worldwide in 2010 is not going away anytime in the next few years and if it did within just 2 or 3 years or so it would be an unprecedented product death in the history of technology back to the industrial revolution. Even the payphone is not completely dead, and it's death throes have been going on for maybe 15 years now.

Sorry for the edit, but here is some data:

https://itmanagement.earthweb.com/m...ales-Soaring-Amid-Wider-PC-Growth-Gartner.htm

Gartner projects worldwide PC shipments will reach 376.6 million units in 2010, a 22-percent increase from the 308.3 million units shipped in 2009. Total spending is expected to reach $245.4 billion in 2010, up 12 percent from 2009. The home PC market is projected to grow 29.5 percent this year, while professional PC sales will rise 13.1 percent.
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Gartner has already given a positive report on server sales in the first quarter, and it found that mobile PC sales are also doing well so far this year. Worldwide mobile PC shipments totaled 49.4 million units in the first quarter of 2010, a 43.4 percent increase from the first quarter of 2009. That's the single highest year-over-year growth percentage in eight years, according to Gartner.

But it's not entirely a fair comparison, as Q1 2009 was the depths of the recession and sales fell off a cliff. Several vendors, including Intel, AMD, Nvidia and Dell have all noted massive year-over-year gains, but it's because they are coming off such terrible lows from 2009.
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Not sure you will see 30% growth year over year drop to nothing anytime "soon".

So what exactly is "soon"?
 
LogGrad98 said:
I am still curious as to what "soon" means. 400 million PCs sold worldwide in 2010 is not going away anytime in the next few years and if it did within just 2 or 3 years or so it would be an unprecedented product death in the history of technology back to the industrial revolution. Even the payphone is not completely dead, and it's death throes have been going on for maybe 15 years now.

Sorry for the edit, but here is some data:

https://itmanagement.earthweb.com/m...ales-Soaring-Amid-Wider-PC-Growth-Gartner.htm





Not sure you will see 30% growth year over year drop to nothing anytime "soon".

So what exactly is "soon"?
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In about 4 years.

Also, don't let KEK BS you. When I first started this topic on the old board, I was clear that docks such as the ones in the first post are what would make it possible. I even included a link to a crappy one that was available at the time called a Redfly:
https://www.celiocorp.com/products/

So this whole "the dock is a laptop" is just bull, and I'm guilty of playing along.

Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
SaltyDawg said:
In about 4 years.

Also, don't let KEK BS you. When I first started this topic on the old board, I was clear that docks such as the ones in the first post are what would make it possible. I even included a link to a crappy one that was available at the time called a Redfly:
https://www.celiocorp.com/products/

So this whole "the dock is a laptop" is just bull, and I'm guilty of playing along.

Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
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So your standpoint is that within 4 years the 350-400 million units of PC's sold annually will drop to 0. 2015 sales of PC's will be nothing.

Really...
 
https://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=223800259

The United States is expected to see double-digit growth in PC shipments in three years of the five-year forecast: 8.5% this year, 13.7% in 2011, 12.1% in 2012, 10.4% in 2013, and 9.5% in 2014, IDC said. The U.S. and other mature markets are expected to see slower growth in PC shipments than emerging markets.
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https://www.onlinesocialmedia.net/2...et-pc-in-2015-which-will-be-the-most-popular/

https://news.yahoo.com/s/mashable/2...les_will_eclipse_laptop_sales_by_2015_stats_1

https://www.forrester.com/rb/research

Looking at their projected laptop sales, Forester believes that they will keep growing too, only not to the extent of tablet PCs. They believe that the 26.4 million laptop sales of 2010 will continue to grow up to 38.9 million in 2015.
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The numbers from Forrester are nevertheless impressive. The firm expects that tablet sales will grow from 10.3 million in 2010 to 44 million in 2015, eclipsing laptop sales by roughly 5 million units. Laptop sales will continue to grow from 26.4 million in 2010 to 38.9 million in 2015, however, while desktop PC sales will decline from 20.5 million in 2010 to 18.2 million in 2015.
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[Both quotes above reflect the US market only.]

More info...

https://mcpmag.com/articles/2010/06/18/pc-sales-to-grow-20-percent-this-year.aspx

Forrester Research analysts, looking at the U.S. consumer PC market, also see some upward trends.

"Over the next five years, PC unit sales across all form factors will increase by 52%," stated Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps, in a recent blog post. "In fact, desktops are the only type of PC whose numbers will be fewer in 2015 than they are today -- and even desktops will benefit from innovation in gaming and 3D."

Forrester predicts that "growth will come from new form factors like tablets, but laptop sales will increase steadily also." Tablets will start outselling netbooks in 2012, according to Forrester's report, "The US Consumer PC Market In 2015." Forrester's report, like that of IDC, also sees PCs as not quite dead yet.

"Fewer desktops will be sold in 2015 than in 2010, but in 2015, they'll still be used by more consumers than any other type of PC," Rotman Epps stated.
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So all of these are wrong...Forester who has been typically very accurate (which is why they make money for their investors) and IDC both got it all wrong, when their livelihood and that of many of their investors/clients hinge on them being right.

Really...
 
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LogGrad98 said:
https://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=223800259



https://www.onlinesocialmedia.net/2...et-pc-in-2015-which-will-be-the-most-popular/

https://news.yahoo.com/s/mashable/2...les_will_eclipse_laptop_sales_by_2015_stats_1

https://www.forrester.com/rb/research





[Both quotes above reflect the US market only.]

More info...

https://mcpmag.com/articles/2010/06/18/pc-sales-to-grow-20-percent-this-year.aspx



So all of these are wrong...Forester who has been typically very accurate (which is why they make money for their investors) and IDC both got it all wrong, when their livelihood and that of many of their investors/clients hinge on them being right.

Really...
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Post all the links you want, you're still wrong; he read about this on Twitter. tweets>actual fact>science
 
LogGrad98 said:
So your standpoint is that within 4 years the 350-400 million units of PC's sold annually will drop to 0. 2015 sales of PC's will be nothing.

Really...
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Did I say that somewhere? I think I was pretty clear that there will always be sales to extreme users. But the average user will be using their smartphone more than a home computer in 4 years. Computers will still be around, they just won't get any use by the average user.

And here are some links for you:
https://androidheadlines.com/2010/0...-smartphones-will-outsell-pcs-in-2-years.html

https://mentormate.com/blog/new-research-smartphones-to-outsell-pcs-by-2012/

https://www.channelregister.co.uk/2010/06/08/morgan_stanley/

And here's one that basically says the PC's only chance of survival is if they imitate smartphones (cloud computing and storage, instant on, app store, etc):
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40827373

TroutBum said:
Post all the links you want, you're still wrong; he read about this on Twitter. tweets>actual fact>science
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Or we could just listen to trout, who has no idea what he's talking about but he read some crap on jazzfanz so that qualifies him to argue with someone who makes a lot of money in this industry and has been reading Jazzfanz from a smartphone longer than anyone else (just ask Jason when I first started asking for a mobile version).
 
LogGrad98 said:
Thread: Smartphones to replace computers soon
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I ask again, did I say computer sales would be 0 in 4 years somewhere? Please point it out if I did.

Cars replaced the horse a long time ago but that doesn't mean not a single horse has ever been sold since.
 
Definition of REPLACE
transitive verb
1: to restore to a former place or position <replace cards in a file>
2: to take the place of especially as a substitute or successor
3: to put something new in the place of <replace a worn carpet>
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Definition of "soon":

SaltyDawg said:
In about 4 years.
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LOL this is just full of back-pedal. You argued so hard that smartphones are the replacement for computers. Every reason for keeping computers around you shot down with vehemence. Then when the facts are presented that computers are not going away any time soon you make sure to point out that you didn't really mean "replace", like you said in the thread title and argued so strongly for, you meant something else, like what, "play alongside nicely" or something?

You went at this so hardcore and over the top from the get-go did you really expect no one to call you on it?
 
LogGrad98 said:
LOL this is just full of back-pedal. You argued so hard that smartphones are the replacement for computers. Every reason for keeping computers around you shot down with vehemence. Then when the facts are presented that computers are not going away any time soon you make sure to point out that you didn't really mean "replace", like you said in the thread title and argued so strongly for, you meant something else, like what, "play alongside nicely" or something?

You went at this so hardcore and over the top from the get-go did you really expect no one to call you on it?
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Are you not following along or something? Nowhere did I say computer sales would be zero. Please show me where I said that. In several posts I said, and this is a copy and paste from one of my posts in this very thread:
"I agree there will be the abnormal case where someone needs a super powerful desktop for pro video production, video games that are better than current gen consoles, etc. But for average computing- email, web, word, excel, music, photos, home videos, current gen console quality gaming, skype, etc, these phones will be more than enough."

So you can stop trying to split hairs. I have been clear about my position since we had this discussion on the old board, and into this current thread.
 
SaltyDawg said:
Are you not following along or something? Nowhere did I say computer sales would be zero. Please show me where I said that. In several posts I said, and this is a copy and paste from one of my posts in this very thread:
"I agree there will be the abnormal case where someone needs a super powerful desktop for pro video production, video games that are better than current gen consoles, etc. But for average computing- email, web, word, excel, music, photos, home videos, current gen console quality gaming, skype, etc, these phones will be more than enough."

So you can stop trying to split hairs. I have been clear about my position since we had this discussion on the old board, and into this current thread.
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Millions of units sold are "abnormal"? Within the 4 year time span you identified? I showed you the definition of your own thread title and tried to show that reasonably the PC will be around for a very long time. You said 4 years, and that at that point any PC use would be abnormal. But industry projections show not just that PCs will be in use but that the segment is going to actually grow over the next 5 years. I see you are not open to reasonable discourse.
 
Ok so maybe you can define replace then. So soon = 4 years, what does replace mean? You called everyone who disagreed with you "clowns" in the very first post. I think those "clowns" deserve to see why you believe they are so, well, clownish. Soon is 4 years, what is replace? Is that why you use so many ambiguous terms ("average computing" being one...according to your definition list there, what you call average computing is what the prognosticators say will drive PC sales for the next 5 years).

By the way, feel free to disregard the projections that show PC sales growing over the next 4 years in making your definition of "replace".
 
LogGrad98 said:
Millions of units sold are "abnormal"? Within the 4 year time span you identified? I showed you the definition of your own thread title and tried to show that reasonably the PC will be around for a very long time. You said 4 years, and that at that point any PC use would be abnormal. But industry projections show not just that PCs will be in use but that the segment is going to actually grow over the next 5 years. I see you are not open to reasonable discourse.
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I'm open to reasonable discourse. But when I clarify my argument, and you still try to split hairs and claim I really meant something else, that is not reasonable discourse. If you followed this thread, then you knew what my argument was. If you haven't followed the thread, then you need to get caught up before you go splitting hairs, because I have stated my argument many times now. And never once did I say PC sales would literally be zero. And you are the only one that brought that up. The "clowns" I called out in the first post knew what I meant. They never questioned PC sales being literally zero.

Again, the average user will use his smartphone more than a home computer in about 4 years. There will be exceptions for hardcore users doing pro video production, hardcore gaming, and things like that. But the average home user who uses their computer for music, photos, home videos, streaming videos, email, web surfing, word, excel, etc, will use their smartphone a lot more than their home computer.

Much like the car "replaced" the horse, but there are still horse sales every year.

And I have also already said in this thread that I don't expect all of the current home computers to rot away in 4 years so people will still own them. I just think they will mostly be dust collectors for the average person. There will still be computers, and even computer sales. But the average user will be buying and using smartphones instead.

I understand you can cherry pick data and see that some people expect computer sales to grow (and I expect those numbers to be revised in 4 years). But if you look a little closer, you will see smartphone sales growing at a much faster rate than computer sales. So if the average user is going to own a smartphone in 4 years, and that smartphone duplicates (and even exceeds) the production, speed, and convenience of a laptop, why would that average person buy a laptop anyway?

And if the smartphone turns on (fully booted up) in half a second and loads everything significantly faster than a laptop (and you need to try a current gen smartphone if you disagree with this) then why would an average user go out of their way to grab their old laptop and wait for it to boot up? Even putting the phone in a dock it still "boots up" exponentially faster than a computer.

And don't give me the 5" screen and tiny keyboard argument, because I have made it clear there will be docks that rectify these issues (and there is a link showing it in action in the first post) for significantly cheaper than buying a laptop or desktop, and will still be a lot faster.

Find me someone who makes their living selling programs that they develop themselves who is putting more energy into developing PC apps than smartphone apps. There are literally thousands of new smartphone apps hitting the various app stores every day. There is nowhere near that level of development for the PC.

It's easy to find a bunch of clowns that have never owned a cell phone, or just barely got their first cell phone a few months ago, or have never owned a smartphone, or even own a smartphone but only use it for calls and texts, that will disagree with me. But I guarantee you, every major computer manufacturer is making smartphones right now for a reason. Microsoft is putting Windows 7 on tablets right now (and making Windows 8 SoC compatible) for a reason.
 
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