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Smartphones to replace computers soon

Salty was very clearly right.

Its very very clear which way the wind is blowing.

And honestly its not just him who thinks this...the whole industry has been talking about this for years and years.
 
I answered it already. Because the average user has been replacing their desktop with a laptop for a while now.

But smartphones are growing at an even faster rate.

So, watch that video in the first post and then come tell me why someone would buy a laptop after buying that phone.


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not sure why I really want to wade into this debate, but I disagree with the premise that the smart phone will replace the computer, at least not within the time frame Salty mentions (4 years?)

a couple of points - -

Salty cites the fact that smart phone sales are growing at a faster rate than computer sales. This reflects a few things that really have nothing to do with a possible demise in the use of computers:
1 - phone companies keep offering special deals for upgrading phones, giving consumers an incentive to do so every two years or less. That doesn't seem to be the case with computers.
2 - at this point, the technology on the phones is evolving more rapidly that the technology on computers, again providing folks with an incentive to replace their cell phone
3 - families are buying these phones for their children, it's not unusual for a family of 5 to have 5 different cell phones on their plan. It's more unusual for that family to have 5 separate computers in their household. Just because a family has 5 smart phones but only 2 computers in the household does not mean that they are replacing all the tasks done with the computer by using their smart phone.

Also, I agree with those who say that as folks age, or for young kids who lack the manual dexterity for a phone's keyboard, many people will prefer to use the computer (I'm not differentiating between a desktop and laptop here) because of its larger screen and keyboard. Perhaps as Salty says, that will be replaced by smart phone "add-ons" that will mimic a larger computer, but I'm not sure folks will be in a hurry to spend the money it will take to totally revamp what they already have. Perhaps somewhere down the line that will happen, but for the foreseeable future I don't see consumers spending the money to do so.

Nor do I think corporations are going to be willing to make the investment to revamp their product line to develop and promote those sorts of gadgets given the current economic climate.

As you may know, I don't have a "smart" phone so I can't really speak from personal experience. I do have an ipod touch which is pretty similar, it just can't make phone calls and needs wifi rather than being able to access the phone system. But it does alot and carries no service charges, a big plus in my book.
But my kids all do have smart phones, and I see them use their phones all the time. They also have laptops, and they're often using both simultaneously. Now perhaps there is a way to do that with one device, I don't know, but from what I observe, it seems it would be pretty difficult.
 
...argue with someone who makes a lot of money in this industry and has been reading Jazzfanz from a smartphone longer than anyone else (just ask Jason when I first started asking for a mobile version).

no offense Salty, but this reminds me of the folks who reply to D-Will's facebook updates with a comment of "first" because they want to be sure everyone knows they were the first to respond, LOL!
 
I'd be fine using a phone for everything as long as I had a good sized monitor. If you're reading on a 4.3" screen every day for long periods you're heading towards some serious eye damage down the road.
 
not sure why I really want to wade into this debate, but I disagree with the premise that the smart phone will replace the computer, at least not within the time frame Salty mentions (4 years?)

a couple of points - -

Salty cites the fact that smart phone sales are growing at a faster rate than computer sales. This reflects a few things that really have nothing to do with a possible demise in the use of computers:
1 - phone companies keep offering special deals for upgrading phones, giving consumers an incentive to do so every two years or less. That doesn't seem to be the case with computers.
2 - at this point, the technology on the phones is evolving more rapidly that the technology on computers, again providing folks with an incentive to replace their cell phone
3 - families are buying these phones for their children, it's not unusual for a family of 5 to have 5 different cell phones on their plan. It's more unusual for that family to have 5 separate computers in their household. Just because a family has 5 smart phones but only 2 computers in the household does not mean that they are replacing all the tasks done with the computer by using their smart phone.

Also, I agree with those who say that as folks age, or for young kids who lack the manual dexterity for a phone's keyboard, many people will prefer to use the computer (I'm not differentiating between a desktop and laptop here) because of its larger screen and keyboard. Perhaps as Salty says, that will be replaced by smart phone "add-ons" that will mimic a larger computer, but I'm not sure folks will be in a hurry to spend the money it will take to totally revamp what they already have. Perhaps somewhere down the line that will happen, but for the foreseeable future I don't see consumers spending the money to do so.

Nor do I think corporations are going to be willing to make the investment to revamp their product line to develop and promote those sorts of gadgets given the current economic climate.

As you may know, I don't have a "smart" phone so I can't really speak from personal experience. I do have an ipod touch which is pretty similar, it just can't make phone calls and needs wifi rather than being able to access the phone system. But it does alot and carries no service charges, a big plus in my book.
But my kids all do have smart phones, and I see them use their phones all the time. They also have laptops, and they're often using both simultaneously. Now perhaps there is a way to do that with one device, I don't know, but from what I observe, it seems it would be pretty difficult.
You do a pretty good job of spelling out exactly why smartphones will replace computers in the near future...

You basically say they're cheaper, phone companies pushing them, everyone getting one, technology moving faster, and so on.

So you basically you agree that just about everyone who actively uses a home computer will probably get a smartphone at some point in the near future, and that phone will probably be as technologically advanced as the old computer they are using today.

I understand that the ipod you use today can't replace your computer. It wasn't designed to. But the smartphones coming out this year were designed to replace your computer. See the one in the first post.

It's hilarious that all these people are saying "my current smartphone can't do it, so it will never happen..." Or even worse, "I have never even owned a cell phone, but you're a moron if you think they will be able to replace computers..."

The point is, the new ones can easily replace computers. They do everything you probably use your computer for, much faster than your computer. And if you agree that most people will own a smartphone (carriers pushing them, cheap price, the reason doesn't matter) then it's not a stretch to say people will use them, and not spend the extra money for a new computer.



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I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but I am predicting that it is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in the four year time span you predicted

My prediction is that in spite of whatever additional bells and whistles the phone and computer companies may come up with, most folks will still prefer to use BOTH devices for various tasks. They may use their phones more in the future than they currently do, but that is not the same as saying they'll use it exclusively and feel no need for a laptop or desktop as part of a complementary system.

As KEK pointed out, all the docking equipment doesn't appear to be something you can easily pack up and carry from room to room, or to the library, or wherever. Unless you're predicting that libraries, coffee shops, etc will all have an ample supply of these gadgets so people can dock their smart phones to do the work they normally do on a laptop. But that goes back to my point about corporate investment, or lack thereof.
 
no offense Salty, but this reminds me of the folks who reply to D-Will's facebook updates with a comment of "first" because they want to be sure everyone knows they were the first to respond, LOL!
I'm just pointing out that I'm no rookie in this game. I was using smartphones on this site before an iPhone even existed. I have seen the progression and know what to expect going forward.

But I know, that doesn't mean as much as someone who just barely got his first cell phone a couple months ago, or has never even used a smartphone, or recently got a smartphone and only uses it for talking and texting. Well, as long as they have a funny (or not) one liner about me, or they have some pathetic attempt to form an online clique of fellow BYU fans and unite against the Ute fan. Yeah, all of that trumps my years of experience dating back to before any of them had even heard of a smartphone.

And again, I am not "predicting" where the industry is going with anybody's current smartphone. I am predicting where the industry will be in 4 years.

4 years ago there was no such thing as an iPhone. Look at the stuff available today. And the market is growing and advancing faster now than it was back then, and we're "starting" with way better technology than we had 4 years ago.


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LOL, guess we'll just have to see in four years.


Hopefully there won't be another Jazzfanz implosion before that time.




....unless you're right :wink:
 
As KEK pointed out, all the docking equipment doesn't appear to be something you can easily pack up and carry from room to room, or to the library, or wherever. Unless you're predicting that libraries, coffee shops, etc will all have an ample supply of these gadgets so people can dock their smart phones to do the work they normally do on a laptop. But that goes back to my point about corporate investment, or lack thereof.
You might want to read more of KEK's posts in this thread and my replies. You'll see that he actually didn't know what he was talking about. The dock did such a good job replacing a laptop that he actually thought it was a laptop. His posts saying it wouldn't replace a laptop were based on him thinking the dock they were using was an actual laptop.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
You might want to read more of KEK's posts in this thread and my replies. You'll see that he actually didn't know what he was talking about. The dock did such a good job replacing a laptop that he actually thought it was a laptop. His posts saying it wouldn't replace a laptop were based on him thinking the dock they were using was an actual laptop.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.

Salty, I read his posts and I understood them without your help. Please stop being so patronizing. It's insulting.

And telll me, just how easy will it be to cart that equipment from room to room or to your local library?

and also, what's your prediction on when tapatalk will add moderator functions to their interface?
 
Moe, is a tablet like the ipad (:vomit:) or one of the superior equivalents, not more like a smartphone than a laptop.

The netbook was killing the laptop and now the tablet is killing the netbook. If you're going to define that as a pc fine...but to me thats the nextgen smart phone and its here.
 
Salty, I read his posts and I understood them without your help. Please stop being so patronizing. It's insulting.

And telll me, just how easy will it be to cart that equipment from room to room or to your local library?

and also, what's your prediction on when tapatalk will add moderator functions to their interface?
No offense, but if you read his posts and understood them (along with my responses) then why are you asking the same questions that were already addressed?

Again, the "dock" he was talking about when he raised those concerns wasn't a dock at all. He had been thinking the actual dock was a laptop. So the answer to your question is, people will easily be able to use it the same way they use their laptops right now, and even the most vocal critics are having trouble finding a notable difference between a laptop and the "laptop dock" in the first post.

As for tapatalk, I don't have a prediction about moderator functions. Adding things like that (compatible with all the common forum software) add bloat to the app and experience. The idea is to keep it fast and light. Kind of like adding a lift and 4 wheel drive to a Camaro.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
Moe, is a tablet like the ipad (:vomit:) or one of the superior equivalents, not more like a smartphone than a laptop.

The netbook was killing the laptop and now the tablet is killing the netbook. If you're going to define that as a pc fine...but to me thats the nextgen smart phone and its here.
I could not have said this any better. 100% spot on.


Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
 
Moe, is a tablet like the ipad (:vomit:) or one of the superior equivalents, not more like a smartphone than a laptop.

The netbook was killing the laptop and now the tablet is killing the netbook. If you're going to define that as a pc fine...but to me thats the nextgen smart phone and its here.

https://techcrunch.com/2010/06/17/forrester-tablets-outsell-netbooks/#

As a percentage of overall PC sales, tablets will grow from 6 percent this year to 18 percent in 2012 (when netbooks are estimated to account for 17 percent of sales. The next year, in 2013, tablet sales are projected to outstrip desktop unit sales, 21 percent to 20 percent. By 2015, tablets will make up 23 percent of PC sales in the U.S., while desktops will be 18 percent and netbooks will be 17 percent. Only laptops will sell more in the U.S., with a 42 percent market share.

No mention of smartphones. 42% of the market going to laptops hardly represents the laptop being "killed". Although the netbook is definitely dropping off, and desktop market share will decrease. The one thing not discussed is what the market outlook is. Is 10% of the market in 2015 equal to 10% of the market today?
 
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