KEK said:
Excuses. His fg% is what it is. There are plenty of bigs, or hell, even guards for that matter, who are efficient offensively in limited time.
Excuses? I’m not excusing Fesenko. I’ve clearly acknowledged that Elson is significantly better RIGHT NOW in FG%. And that difference is 4 makes. And Fesenko’s career FG% and Elson FG% is almost exactly the same. Like to the tenth of a percent. Both of those facts make the difference suggestive of an anomaly. Furthermore, it is pretty indisputable that it’s tough to get in a shooting rhythm when you’re playing pieces.
KEK said:
You use C.J. Miles as an example yet his numbers, field goal percentage and three point percentage specifically, are his worst since his second year in the league. So which is it? Does more time net better results or worse? On one hand, you blame Fes' awful offensive production and field goal percentage due to limited playing time yet Miles's numbers show that more time does not necessarily equate into better efficiency and results.
You’re really going to try to argue that more playing time does not typically yield better shooting results? Really?
And you’re going to argue against CJ Miles as an example of a player whom Sloan has given MORE than a free pass to—over YEARS—to develop a shot as a stark contrast to not giving Fesenko even 10 minutes per available game during any of his four years, when it can be argued that big men require longer development time than wings anyway? You have a steep hill to climb.
Should we allow him to play until it does have a negative impact? His free throw shooting is a black mark. Period. He doesn't bring enough to the table to warrant me turning a blind eye on this or his other deficiencies.
I acknowledged that it is a black mark. But it has had absolutely no difference in the outcome of any game this season, especially given that he has not missed more than one free throw in any loss this season. It is part of why Elson might be better right now. It shouldn’t be an argument for benching Fesenko if you’re a coach who cares about depth and development. Go4Jazz has also cited that Fes has been practicing free throws and has improved in practice, which only points further to the indisputable need for court time. That has certainly been the strategy with Miles, and he improved significantly from his first couple of years. Miles is still proof that court time is a fundamental factor in experience and skill for most players. Even though Miles is having a low year percentagewise, he has still been more effective than Bell overall yet has averaged fewer minutes. Why? Because Sloan favors vets.
Bear in mind that Elson is a veteran of 7000 minutes and that Fesenko has barely smelled a thousand (that’s less than 5 MPG across 4 seasons, for those of you keeping track at home), and many of them being crumb minutes.
Steals? 0.82 vs. none for Fes. Not exactly blowing away. Pretty much a wash with Fes’s blocks
You want a 0.8 difference per 30 in steals? You can have it. Again, centers are more needed for controlling the paint, of which blocks can be a part, and Fes has blocked at a higher rate than Elson this year.
Assists? Already did the math. 0.69 per 30 vs. 0.5 per 30. Not exactly better. Definitely not statistically so.
Really? Elson's getting 38% more assists per 30 minutes. It doesn't look like much but we're not talking about point guards here. 38% is a difference. A greater difference than Fes's height advantage which you brought up and is about as nominal as you get.
You would really have a point except that you are wrong also. It is true that I miscalculated or misread, but the true rate is (20/308*30 =) 1.95 AP30 for Elson and 10/185*30 = 1.6 AP30 for Fes. Elson’s assists are only mildly higher. Mine wasn’t an attempt to misrepresent any more than your poor math was, either.
Foul frequency? Utah has needed more aggression out there, so while Fes has made stupid fouls (and Frank, too), the foul frequency has been a call to aggressiveness that the first 7 or so in the rotation have sorely lacked.
Again, excuses. Bro, do you hear yourself rationalizing your points? The bottom line is both guys play aggressive defense yet Fes fouls at 6.47 fouls per 30 minutes while Fran's fouling at just 3.68 per 30. That's a huge difference. He fouls at a 76% greater rate. How many extra free throws does that result in? I'll come back to that.
I am not denying that Fes is making stupid fouls. It hasn’t been an impact. I don’t think that it has even caused the Jazz to fall into the penalty very often. It’s part of players developing. It’s not a reason to banish him to the bench.
Everyone in the league has potential. But that's neither here nor there. Let's not feign like Fes is getting no burn. Elson's averaging just a few more minutes per night than Fes. Those minutes are deserved. I couldn't say the same if Fes was the one with about three more minutes per contest.. So right now the minutes played per game are about exactly where they should be.
You are being disingenuous if you are claiming that Elson’s >50% more playing time this year isn’t a substantial difference. And again, Fes has barely gotten as many minutes in his CAREER than many bigs get in their first year; I cited the Ostertag example for a long time. If you’re not going players enough time to figure things out on the court, then they aren’t gonna develop. Again I cite CJ; he’s still erratic but more consistent than in his first two years (when he had about as much PT as Fesenko, a big, had in four years, even though Fesenko is a big man).
And no, averaging less than 10 MPG even this year (not to mention beforehand) isn’t enough not only for Fesenko but also for most big men in the league. Sloan’s lack of effort to find time for younger players has hurt this team; Fes’s situation is only one example.
Reliability? Besides the shooting, an exaggeration. Averages are in the same neighborhood and even things out.
Has Fes been someone the organization, Sloan, or his teammates can depend on? I'm speculating of course but DNP's hardly encourage any optimism about the kid's professionalism. We're not talking about sprained ACL's here.
He still has barely played rookie minutes, so “reliable” (whatever your feeble definition of “reliable” is, as if anything that Elson has done over Fes besides shooting is really considered “reliable”).
Reality is that Sloan has done a bait and switch. Fes was already behaving better last year, but the minutes were crumbs. This year, even though it is clear that he has been part of highly effective 2nd unit (and even at times when Jefferson and Millsap were being ineffective), Sloan still has underused the backup bigs—not just Fesenko, but Elson also. I have stated this repeatedly over the season. Fesenko’s just the biggest tragedy because his upside is significantly higher than Elson’s and because there have been some games where he has clearly done better than Elson yet Elson still got the nod. That’s not good management, and that’s not good coaching.
Hardly. I actually like your posts and agree with your points on team optimization typically. Oftentimes you make great points. But you've tipped the scales, if you hadn't a year or more ago, toward pure Fes homerism. Don't get me wrong. I love the guy but the PT is right about where it should be. Also, we're in agreement here that Slow-kur has gotten a free pass, though his man defense is not bad, and I too would probably rather see Fes out there gutting it out while Okur rode the pine or was brought in situationally or when match-ups dictated it. But I doubt Sloan feels the same way.
If it smells like homerism, that’s because the same behavior by Sloan has continued. So I maintain that I am more accurately a team optimization homer; not playing the bigs and especially Fesenko is just the most glaring deficiency in team optimization right now. The crux of my mantra over the years has been the decisionmaking by Sloan. Before Fes came around, I backed other players. While Sloan’s system is good, and while he is able to get some players to do better than the might elsewhere, Sloan’s on-court and off-court decisionmaking has been one of the biggest obstacles between title contention and the early exits that they have experienced. It’s one of the clearest constants over the years.
Sloan has started playing Elson more, but it’s come at the expense of Fes. Now that Okur is back, Fes is likely to fall off the map, even though Okur was a big part of Utah losing to NOH. Elson is only mildly better than Fesenko right now, and given the age difference (10 years), Elson’s experience is comprising much of the difference, as shown in the shooting. If Sloan limits minutes to Fesenko, then it’s not gonna change, because it’ll go in the wrong direction away from giving the on-court time that Fes needs. And given that Sloan gave Okur a free pass on help defense in previous years, I don’t anticipate that to change unless MO is really, really bad.
The problem is that Sloan has makes insufficient effort to develop players, and the team paid for it in the playoffs when Fesenko’s lack of on-court experience shows.
I'd be very curious if someone could find out how many more points per game Elson's productivity [better fg and ft %, more steals (that result in x amount of points per steal), better foul frequency (how many extra free throws is Fes granting the opponent per game and in turn, how many more points?) nets the team than Fes's. Obviously, there are immeasurable intangibles on the defensive end and such but I personally think from looking at the stats and doing the eye test (Elson's no slouch either on the defensive side of the ball) that Elson wins out.
Again, the 0.3 SP30 isn't gonna make a big difference. I already did the math for you FG%; if Fes had made 4 more shots ALL SEASON, he would have the same FG% as Elson. Fes is fouling too much, but Elson might be fouling too little; that's definitely what the first string is doing.
82 games has Fesenko's on-court/off-court +/- and simple rating as
higher than Elson's. Basketball value has Fesenko with a positive 2-year +/- (1-year +/- not available, presumably because he hasn't played enough minutes, only further proving my point) and Elson with a negative 1-year +/- while on the Jazz. These values are striking, especially given that Fesenko and Frank have played a lot of minutes together. We've been through the box score stats, showing Elson better because of shooting and fouls and maybe steals but not much else. I invite anyone to find a better source.
As the above databases support, I disagree with your eye test giving the nod to Elson defensively.
