Most players are largely what they are going to be after the third year. So...
what should Favors/Hayward extension be vs what will they be
- Thread starter blackham9258
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Most players are largely what they are going to be after the third year. So...
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Disagree. Old rule of thumb was that it took bigs FIVE years to develop. And that was in the days when these players stayed in college. I think there's a huge difference between a player who comes out with polished skills like Durant and the "kids" who come in to the league as "projects" because they haven't played that much. I'd probably modify your statement to include an age, such as players are largely what they're going to be at 25.
The famous David Locke quote. And when you say "most" does that include players who aren't getting starting mins?
The negativity on Favors is down right crazy IMO. You don't sign him now, another team will give him the max. What he brings is a dying breed. And it's something I feel the Jazz can build around.
Kind of. That would probably be more true to a minutes gauge. How many minutes has Favors really gotten compared to most 3rd overall picks? The Jazz have brought him along slowly, so I'm adding an extra year to that adage for the cases of Kanter/Burks/Favors.
green
Well-Known Member
Lol. "If they show improvement"... That's my whole argument...
fishonjazz
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You want improvement green? Rebound rate, block rate, steal rate, and free throw percentage.-
Ask and you shall receive. (Quite a few posts back)
Most players don't make it to their second contract. So, yeah, most. And by a large margin.
Look, I'm not saying Derrick Favors is done, but everyone should be very skeptical that he's suddenly going to have any mentionable offensive touch or ability because he really hasn't shown that with any consistency yet. And if he just stays the player he's been and carries his rate of production against starters and with about twice the minutes, then he's still a very good player. To assume he'll be a significantly different player (as opposed to a very similar player in a very different situation) is folly, even if your assumption proves correct.
I'd rather be realistic and pleasantly surprised to be wrong than succumb to wishful thinking, be let down, and appear to be a fool for being wrong.
Look, I'm not saying Derrick Favors is done, but everyone should be very skeptical that he's suddenly going to have any mentionable offensive touch or ability because he really hasn't shown that with any consistency yet. And if he just stays the player he's been and carries his rate of production against starters and with about twice the minutes, then he's still a very good player. To assume he'll be a significantly different player (as opposed to a very similar player in a very different situation) is folly, even if your assumption proves correct.
I'd rather be realistic and pleasantly surprised to be wrong than succumb to wishful thinking, be let down, and appear to be a fool for being wrong.
framer
Well-Known Member
Rules I have learned about contracts:
1. Unless your point guard is Magic Johnson, maxing a point guard is suicide.
2. Size gets paid. Favors is not going to sign an extension at 10 per. If he does then he is admitting that he is in way over his head and will commence to suck.
3. Maxing Paul George is like maxing Rudy Gay. You are betting that that player is top 7 or 8 in the league. Your certainty better be at around 80%. If you are wrong, you are screwed.
4. Unless you have Jordan or Lebron, you better be paying a decent big man. If you can get 2 that stay healthy and play a balanced game, you can punch your ticket to the second round at least.
5. The Jazz are the only current team that has followed the OKC model. Cleveland could have, but they botched their drafts. We will eventually have to auction off one of our stars if things go as well as we hope.
6. Unless you are a superteam, your ultimate success often lies in the quality of your midlevel exception guys. Screw them up, you are done even if you have quality high salary guys.
7. If you get multiple picks, you need to stash Europeans. It is way to hard too integrate too many rookies that you plan to keep.
8. Salary cap hell is just going to destroy some teams in the next two or three years. This year may be the best and last opportunity to tank.
Needless to say, when I line these things up with what the Jazz are doing, I am pleased. We will not screw up the extensions for Favors and Hayward. We will pay them pretty close to what they are worth, not much more or less. That will be the currency of success in the next era of basketball.
1. Unless your point guard is Magic Johnson, maxing a point guard is suicide.
2. Size gets paid. Favors is not going to sign an extension at 10 per. If he does then he is admitting that he is in way over his head and will commence to suck.
3. Maxing Paul George is like maxing Rudy Gay. You are betting that that player is top 7 or 8 in the league. Your certainty better be at around 80%. If you are wrong, you are screwed.
4. Unless you have Jordan or Lebron, you better be paying a decent big man. If you can get 2 that stay healthy and play a balanced game, you can punch your ticket to the second round at least.
5. The Jazz are the only current team that has followed the OKC model. Cleveland could have, but they botched their drafts. We will eventually have to auction off one of our stars if things go as well as we hope.
6. Unless you are a superteam, your ultimate success often lies in the quality of your midlevel exception guys. Screw them up, you are done even if you have quality high salary guys.
7. If you get multiple picks, you need to stash Europeans. It is way to hard too integrate too many rookies that you plan to keep.
8. Salary cap hell is just going to destroy some teams in the next two or three years. This year may be the best and last opportunity to tank.
Needless to say, when I line these things up with what the Jazz are doing, I am pleased. We will not screw up the extensions for Favors and Hayward. We will pay them pretty close to what they are worth, not much more or less. That will be the currency of success in the next era of basketball.
So are they extending them or letting them enter restricted free agency? How do you know what will happen, especially in the event they enter restricted free agency and one or both of them sign a ridiculous offer sheet? Is letting players walk that are potentially a part of your core just another day at the office?
Assuming he gets on an All-Defensive team level (2nd/3rd) how much do you think he would be worth also assuming he has peaked offensively?
green
Well-Known Member
12 per.
I'm curious to know whether you consider the age of a player. Meaning, should a one-and-done 18yr old have a fourth year of growth vs, say, a 20yr old junior coming into the league?
framer
Well-Known Member
The Jazz have put themselves in the best possible position to retain all of their free agents. If you are going to get in a bidding war with another team, you don't pick the Jazz who can retain all of their free agents and not even approach the same zip code as the luxury tax.
Additionally, I find it humorous that so many message board warriors think they know what a player is going to take or what each is worth when they don't know the player, how they perform in practice, or how fast they absorb knowledge. The Jazz management has the best handle on all of these things. They know what Favor's ceiling is and what he can become better than any group of people in the league. This is the second part of the puzzle. Most of the people that we will eventually need to pay are OUR players. We don't have to take a risk on grabbing a player from another team where we do not have that knowledge. Instead of reaching for someone like an Ameachi who might turn out to be a good player or flat out bust, we can evaluate the guys in our own system and decide whether to sign them or let them go based on what they are actually worth.
That is the reason I am positive we will get value on our contracts.
D
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Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Good post framer. And like many of us have noted, including Cy, fishonjazz, PKM and theman..., we don't think Locke's "rule" is accurate, especially when it comes to young guys (one and done) or players who have simply NOT been given PT. Locke is a talk show host. He does have some good insight at times, but should one really ascribe to everything he says as absolute truth?
While I think there's a temptation for the Jazz to extend Favors and Hayward now and possibly get a discount, I don't think they will. Hayward is a safer bet, as he's now had a couple of seasons at 30 mins/per. Pretty safe bet he'll average around 45%/40% and increase his scoring average from 14 to the 18 range as he gets more shots. Favors is a bit of an unknown. He projects at 12/10 for 30 mins...IF he can stay out of foul trouble and IF he hasn't improved very much.
The Jazz have challenged both to step up their games and leadership. I think DL will want to see the results before offering new contracts. AS framer said, the Jazz have plenty of cap space. They could even afford to overpay for one (or both) on a long-term deal. The real money concerns won't hit until the 2014 pick(s) are coming off their rookie contracts. Then it's likely a player or two will need to be moved.
Another factor is the 2014 draft. If the Jazz were to get Wiggins or Parker, Hayward might be less important, especially if Burks shows he can play major minutes. Or, let's say the Jazz get the #3 pick and Randle is BPA. Then DL might consider a S&T involving Favors.
While I think there's a temptation for the Jazz to extend Favors and Hayward now and possibly get a discount, I don't think they will. Hayward is a safer bet, as he's now had a couple of seasons at 30 mins/per. Pretty safe bet he'll average around 45%/40% and increase his scoring average from 14 to the 18 range as he gets more shots. Favors is a bit of an unknown. He projects at 12/10 for 30 mins...IF he can stay out of foul trouble and IF he hasn't improved very much.
The Jazz have challenged both to step up their games and leadership. I think DL will want to see the results before offering new contracts. AS framer said, the Jazz have plenty of cap space. They could even afford to overpay for one (or both) on a long-term deal. The real money concerns won't hit until the 2014 pick(s) are coming off their rookie contracts. Then it's likely a player or two will need to be moved.
Another factor is the 2014 draft. If the Jazz were to get Wiggins or Parker, Hayward might be less important, especially if Burks shows he can play major minutes. Or, let's say the Jazz get the #3 pick and Randle is BPA. Then DL might consider a S&T involving Favors.
No, that means teams will even be more likely to get into a bidding war. Make an over exaggerated offer to a RFA so they Jazz have to match, especially if you are in the same conference. See Portland the past 5 years.
Great point. My answer is absolutely not. Players can evolve their games over time, as well. Look at LeBron. Year 3, he couldn't shoot a lick. Now he's 40% + from the 3.
I'm expecting big years from both Favors and Hayward, and big fourth-year leaps - in their skillsets, size/strength, minutes, stats...everything. My prediction is that both should get paid and both will.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
But the point is teams need to have the cap space available. It's difficult to get far enough under the cap to offer a big contract. And then that money is tied up for 3 days while Utah decides to match or not. If they do, the offering team has wasted valuable time and resources and may see their plans B and C already gone to other teams. Yes, there will be some teams looking to clear cap space in order to go after big name FA's. Utah might be in position to facilitate a couple of those teams. But you can bet there will be a gentleman's agreement that said team will not turn around and make an offer to Hayward or Favor if their targeted FA doesn't agree to an offer sheet. Worst case, if an offer is outrageous (say the MAX for Derrick or Gordon), then you have to let them go. It's like that with every team. At this point, neither Hayward nor Favors are superstars or even all-stars. It would be a hit, but you could get a decent starter at either position in free agency.