I'll rely on the numbers provided under
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/utah-jazz/ and https://www.basketballinsiders.com/utah-jazz-team-salary/
in the following projection.
A lot of discussion has taken place here if the Jazz can sustain extending all their talent, how many they'll have to let go amongst other topics.
I'll just give a short explanation why the Salary Cap is most likely going to fall, it's pretty simple.
The NBA's CBA includes a clause that the players are being paid between 49 and 51% of all basketball related income(BRI).
Roughly said the BRI is what setts the cap.
But in addition to that there's something that the NBA calls "benefits" that's being deducted from the basketball related income. Benefits are being returned to players whenever the teams total payroll is less than half of what the league makes as a whole, the BRI.
So they keep 10% of player salaries in advance and manage it until the end of the season and if the owners tried spending more than half the league's income then that money is being used is being held. If they didn't spend enough, parts of those 10% are returned to the players in order to hold up to the promise.
So why has the salary cap projection for next year changed?
Well the league didn't think that owner would be willing to invest so much this offseason with the influx of new TV money. They thought teams would be more conservative and offer less crazy Tyler Johnson for 50, Allan Crabbe for 75 etc etc type of deals. They simply anticipated teams would not spend enough and that they'd have to offset the missing money via aforementioned benefits. Now as this probably isn't happening(Current projections for 2017 are $30k per team in terms of returned benefits).
So the new projection for the Cap stands at $102M and the tax threshold is believed to be $122M.
Based on these numbers, new maxmimum contracts are gonna look like this:
Gordon Hayward will be in the 7-9 years of service range with bird rights, Rudy Gobert in the Less than 7 years range with bird rights as well unless he wins MVP or Finals MVP and unlocks the Derrick Rose provision.
So once Gordon opts out of his contract, he'll count as hold against the cap of 150% his previous salary and since Rudy's rookie contract expires, he'll count by 250% his previous salary against the cap until sth happens. So initially if everything goes as expected and no in season trades happen, it'll look the following:
(Forgot to add Diaw as one we'd renounce to create max flexibility)
As you can see there's very limited caproom available($12M) if we renounce everyone but Hayward, Hill + Gobert. If some big time free agent wanted to join, we'd free up $22M by trading Iso Joe and Burks for a trade exception that we'd have to give up immediately or renouncing rights to Hill would be another way to create space. So a max salary slot could be doable, but it wouldn't come without sacrifice. Especially if you're looking at a max contract for a 7+ or 10+ year vet.
Free agents most likely to be interested in Utah in case we make Conference Semis and lose in 6 or 7 close games to the Dubs or even make the Conference Finals are Blake Griffin and/or CP3, Brodie has already hinted that he's staying in OKC.
For them giving up a lot/renouncing multiple players makes sense.
Interesting FAs that can be had below the max are Danilo Gallinari, Paul Millsap(He may demand max though depending on his play next year)
If you can convince Gobert+Gordon to be patient until mid July until their max deals are getting done, you could try to throw a big offer at restricted FA Mirotic first, which doesn't really make sense from a roster standpoint, but he'd be someone that could be had.
So now let's assume we're staying put and both Hayward and Gobert are getting offered the max(They are unless they Lindsey works some Spurs magic and convinces them to forfeit like $1M annually to help the team add more quality - But that's unlikely)
Now I'll simply set Hill's future starting salary arbitrarily to $16M and assume Diaw doesn't break down and his option getts picked up. In that case we'll exceed the luxury tax threshold slightly, but that could be avoided by trading Joe Johnson away, stretching his contract or trading Burks. But ýou could still just part ways with Diaw, be below the tax line, add a min contract and the Jazz would only have to add very little out of their own pocket(They're saving money these days btw and team evaluations are growing fast)
I don't really wanna speculate beyond the 2017 free agency, even though Exum, Favors and Hood are FAs in 2018. I think it's too far in the future to really predict how much they can command. In 2018 there won't be 30 teams with capspace trolling around. At that point a lot of teams like the Lakers will feel buyers remorse with Deng and Mozgov. Other teams as well. So not every quality FA is going to be an automatic max player. The best case would be if Exum makes a giant leap in performance in year 5. That way they could just keep Hood on a rich contract and Favors on something close to the max that year, while Exum being on a team friendly "Curry contract". Otherwise letting go of Johnson, Diaw and Burks wouldn't be enough, but you'd have to trade Hill or Lyles as well.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/utah-jazz/ and https://www.basketballinsiders.com/utah-jazz-team-salary/
in the following projection.
A lot of discussion has taken place here if the Jazz can sustain extending all their talent, how many they'll have to let go amongst other topics.
I'll just give a short explanation why the Salary Cap is most likely going to fall, it's pretty simple.
The NBA's CBA includes a clause that the players are being paid between 49 and 51% of all basketball related income(BRI).
Roughly said the BRI is what setts the cap.
But in addition to that there's something that the NBA calls "benefits" that's being deducted from the basketball related income. Benefits are being returned to players whenever the teams total payroll is less than half of what the league makes as a whole, the BRI.
So they keep 10% of player salaries in advance and manage it until the end of the season and if the owners tried spending more than half the league's income then that money is being used is being held. If they didn't spend enough, parts of those 10% are returned to the players in order to hold up to the promise.
So why has the salary cap projection for next year changed?
Well the league didn't think that owner would be willing to invest so much this offseason with the influx of new TV money. They thought teams would be more conservative and offer less crazy Tyler Johnson for 50, Allan Crabbe for 75 etc etc type of deals. They simply anticipated teams would not spend enough and that they'd have to offset the missing money via aforementioned benefits. Now as this probably isn't happening(Current projections for 2017 are $30k per team in terms of returned benefits).
So the new projection for the Cap stands at $102M and the tax threshold is believed to be $122M.
Based on these numbers, new maxmimum contracts are gonna look like this:
Gordon Hayward will be in the 7-9 years of service range with bird rights, Rudy Gobert in the Less than 7 years range with bird rights as well unless he wins MVP or Finals MVP and unlocks the Derrick Rose provision.
So once Gordon opts out of his contract, he'll count as hold against the cap of 150% his previous salary and since Rudy's rookie contract expires, he'll count by 250% his previous salary against the cap until sth happens. So initially if everything goes as expected and no in season trades happen, it'll look the following:
(Forgot to add Diaw as one we'd renounce to create max flexibility)
As you can see there's very limited caproom available($12M) if we renounce everyone but Hayward, Hill + Gobert. If some big time free agent wanted to join, we'd free up $22M by trading Iso Joe and Burks for a trade exception that we'd have to give up immediately or renouncing rights to Hill would be another way to create space. So a max salary slot could be doable, but it wouldn't come without sacrifice. Especially if you're looking at a max contract for a 7+ or 10+ year vet.
Free agents most likely to be interested in Utah in case we make Conference Semis and lose in 6 or 7 close games to the Dubs or even make the Conference Finals are Blake Griffin and/or CP3, Brodie has already hinted that he's staying in OKC.
For them giving up a lot/renouncing multiple players makes sense.
Interesting FAs that can be had below the max are Danilo Gallinari, Paul Millsap(He may demand max though depending on his play next year)
If you can convince Gobert+Gordon to be patient until mid July until their max deals are getting done, you could try to throw a big offer at restricted FA Mirotic first, which doesn't really make sense from a roster standpoint, but he'd be someone that could be had.
So now let's assume we're staying put and both Hayward and Gobert are getting offered the max(They are unless they Lindsey works some Spurs magic and convinces them to forfeit like $1M annually to help the team add more quality - But that's unlikely)
Now I'll simply set Hill's future starting salary arbitrarily to $16M and assume Diaw doesn't break down and his option getts picked up. In that case we'll exceed the luxury tax threshold slightly, but that could be avoided by trading Joe Johnson away, stretching his contract or trading Burks. But ýou could still just part ways with Diaw, be below the tax line, add a min contract and the Jazz would only have to add very little out of their own pocket(They're saving money these days btw and team evaluations are growing fast)
I don't really wanna speculate beyond the 2017 free agency, even though Exum, Favors and Hood are FAs in 2018. I think it's too far in the future to really predict how much they can command. In 2018 there won't be 30 teams with capspace trolling around. At that point a lot of teams like the Lakers will feel buyers remorse with Deng and Mozgov. Other teams as well. So not every quality FA is going to be an automatic max player. The best case would be if Exum makes a giant leap in performance in year 5. That way they could just keep Hood on a rich contract and Favors on something close to the max that year, while Exum being on a team friendly "Curry contract". Otherwise letting go of Johnson, Diaw and Burks wouldn't be enough, but you'd have to trade Hill or Lyles as well.
)
OK I am with you pal
