Right now we sit in the 11th spot with 34 losses. Memphis is in 8th with 32 losses. We play Memphis tomorrow, and the winner gets the head to head tiebreaker. Phoenix and Houston both own the head to head tiebreakers against us too.
Our remaining schedule has 12 games left. 10 of those games are against winning teams, and all of them are in the tight western conference. We still have 6 road games too, with 5 of them being against west teams that are over .500 at the moment. So that means we have 6 home games left, with 5 of them being against west teams over .500 at the moment.
Lets be very generous here and say the Jazz win the 2 games against sub .500 teams, win 3 of the 5 home games against playoff teams, and win 2 of the 5 road games against playoff teams. That puts the Jazz at 43-39 to end the season, and at least Phoenix and Houston owning head to head tie breakers.
Memphis has 12 games left. 7 of those games are against winning teams. They have 4 road games left against winning teams, 3 home games left against winning teams. Lets be generous here and say they lose all 7 of those games left against winning teams, but win the 5 against losing teams. That would mean they finish 43-39 with the Jazz owning the head to head tie breaker.
Phoenix (currently in 10th with 33 losses) has 14 games left. 9 of those games are against winning teams. They have 5 road games left against winning teams and 4 home games against winning teams. Lets again be generous and say they lose all 9 of those games and win the 5 against losing teams. That would put them at 40-42 and owning the head to head tie breaker over the Jazz.
Houston (currently in 9th with 34 losses) has 11 games left. They have 6 games left against winning teams. They have 3 road games left against winning teams, and 3 home games against winning teams. If we're generous say they lose all 6 of those games against winning teams, but win the 5 against losing teams, they finish at 42-40 and own the head to head tie breaker over the Jazz.
New Orleans (currently in 7th with 31 losses) has 11 games left. They have 10 games against winning teams, with 5 at home and 5 on the road. If we're as generous as we were with everyone else, they beat the one losing team, and lose all 10 games against winning teams. In that case, they would finish 41-41.
So in the best, and pretty much unrealistic scenario, the Jazz finish 43-39, Memphis finishes 43-39 but loses the tie breaker to Utah, Houston finishes 42-40, New Orleans finishes 41-41, and Phoenix finishes 40-42.
Of course, this is based on Memphis and New Orleans losing every single game they play against winning teams (including tomorrow and Thursday against the Jazz). So if Memphis beats the Jazz tomorrow, and/or New Orleans beats the Jazz on Thursday, you can pretty much forget about the Jazz going to the playoffs. You can pretty much forget about it anyway, realistically. There is virtually no chance that all of those teams go winless against over .500 teams the rest of the way. And there is also very little chance the Jazz win 5 out of 10 games against over .500 teams the rest of the way. But at least right now there is the unrealistic hope that all of this will happen and the Jazz will make the playoffs.