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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

KqWIN said:
I also think there's a scenario where Tre is an all star, VJ is not, but VJ is that guy you really want on your playoff team.
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This is a very good point. Being a star is mostly about putting up stats. But there are a lot of stars who "aint it".
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Some of that gets baked in to the 3PA number. There aren't a lot of guys getting off huge volumes of 3's unless they are taking some difficult ones.
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Right...I just think that Kas's 5.8 3PA/36 is not necessarily the same as another guy's 5.8 3PA/36. So in that sense, I'm betting on him exceeding the projection.
 
KqWIN said:
Right...I just think that Kas's 5.8 3PA/36 is not necessarily the same as another guy's 5.8 3PA/36. So in that sense, I'm betting on him exceeding the projection.
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Yes, and I touched on that a little. If Kas shoots more catch and shoot 3's in the NBA he will likely have a higher % than his projections. 37% is still really good though, so I'm not sure the projections are short changing him at all.

The guy who is potentially being shortchanged the in the projections is Ace with his 69.2%FT%, but was 84.1% in high school.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Im sure they are mean to project their career %, not rookie year. It would be more interesting to look back at someone they projected 6 year ago.
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Did you not read my original post on this? I looked at players from the past 5 drafts and looked at career numbers vs 1st and 2nd year numbers. Yes, the projections are more predictive of career numbers.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Basically, Joe Ingles and Chris Mullin are guys who have barely been able to dunk but almost never do unless they're completely alone. Maybe late-career guys like David West or Boris Diaw would pass up dunks.
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David West definitely dunked.

Chris Mullin seems like a good comp. Not like I watched him, but I youtubed Chris Mullin dunk and the only thing that came up was one of the worst dunks I've ever seen.

Ingles didnt dunk a ton, but he would throw it down in transition or if he was open on drives early in his NBA career without a ton of effort. If he was in the NBA from age 20-26, he probably would have dunked more.
 
This chart is TS percentile and UnassistedFG percentile (don't ask me why the bars are all weird).

Upper Right: High Self Creation, High efficiency
Upper Left: Low Self Creation, High efficiency
Lower Right: High Self Creation, Low efficiency
Lower Left: Low Self Creation, Low efficiency

1746813152752.png
 
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kcgar said:
This is what I worry about. He will think he is KD, but really he becomes Keyonte. Bad shots, ball stopper, and hero chucking.
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This is a huge worry for me with him. I might get roasted for this but, as of today, I think I like Fears more than Tre for this reason.
 
HermanG said:
I hear you. My problem is that self-creation and scoring are essential requirements for "the guy". Other things just need to be sufficient.

So in that sense Tre is closer to being "him".
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I also see where you are coming from, however, there are not many players with Tre's archetype that have been on successful teams as one of the top players. At least I can't think of any. He seems like he will have great offensive stats but doesn't ever go anywhere winning wise
 
After listening to the Raynaud interview, he is definitely going to rise in the draft. Interviews incredibly well. Is going to measure huge for a stretch 5. Is going to test well athletically for a huge stretch 5. I think he could go top 20.
 
If I had to predict how the draft plays out, I think it’ll go:

1- Flagg
2- Harper
3-5: Ace, VJ, Tre in some order
6-9: Fears, Queen, Maluach, Kon in some order

If someone else is going to break into that last group (6-10), it’s probably Essengue.

Then I think it’s Kas, CMB… and the draft goes pretty flat.
 
kcgar said:
I also see where you are coming from, however, there are not many players with Tre's archetype that have been on successful teams as one of the top players. At least I can't think of any. He seems like he will have great offensive stats but doesn't ever go anywhere winning wise
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I think Tre is versatile. Teams can play him like Klay Thompson, Devin Booker, Ray Allen, etc. It’s a very successful archetype.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I think Tre is versatile. Teams can play him like Klay Thompson, Devin Booker, Ray Allen, etc. It’s a very successful archetype.
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Is that the archetype, or is that being like 99th percentile of all time at that archetype? You've got the second and third best shooters of all time listed there. I think every archetype is good when you look at the very best.
 
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