Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
For a while I thought Ace was out of reach but maybe not so much. I think I’m going to need to watch some of his games.
Following Potential 2025 Draftees
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HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Coward or Byrd. Yaxel, Traore, Newell, Sorber, and Fleming all seem fine as well though I have to watch them more. Would cringe and not be super happy but not care that much if it's Powell or Egor.
Kyle Filipowski and Derik Queen’s freshman year statistical profiles are extremely similar.
Per 40 mins:
Filipowski - 20.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1 BPG, 44/28/78 splits with a 11.4 AST%.
Queen - 21.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 53/20/77 splits with a 11.6 AST%.
Filipowski, despite returning for his sophomore year and just finishing his rookie NBA season is only 13 months older than Queen.
I think Queen is the better prospect but by how much? I’m not sure it’s a lot.
Per 40 mins:
Filipowski - 20.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1 BPG, 44/28/78 splits with a 11.4 AST%.
Queen - 21.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 53/20/77 splits with a 11.6 AST%.
Filipowski, despite returning for his sophomore year and just finishing his rookie NBA season is only 13 months older than Queen.
I think Queen is the better prospect but by how much? I’m not sure it’s a lot.
For me, it's either an athletic wing or an athletic big. This draft should have some decent bigs still at #21: Sorber, Raynaud, Beringer, Fleming, etc. Penda and maybe Thiero are worth a look at the wing. The Jazz reportedly liked Coward too. If Traore slips that far, he's worth a serious look, imo.
Jazz should be able to get a good player.
The separator right now is Flip's 3pt shooting. Queen has a better mid-post game, but I'm not sure how much that will play in the NBA. I see you're comparing Freshman years though.
I dont think he is Key.... but I also think if Key was 6'6 and hit 40% of his 3s with the same difficulty Tre does I'd say the tone about him here would be a bit different.
Tre does have some similarities to Key that also go beyond their game... He sometimes gets very visibly frustrated when he is open and doesnt get the ball.. which is something that people are gonna freak about and hate initially. Same kind of hand gestures and bad body language. I dont actually count that as a major flaw of Key even though it annoys the viewer. It just tells me he isnt happy being a wallflower and since he is young his emotions overflow at times.
The thing that concerns me about Fears.. is that he shoots great from standstill but dreadful from any kind of movement. Is he one of those guys who needs perfect balance and set feet to make shots at acceptable rate? I dont see how a guy who averages 85% from FT with 6.3 attempts "just needs to improve his shooting". He already seems to shoot pretty well.. except he cant do it when he isnt set.
If we were in the business of making unrealistic high upside comps based on current NBA players I would say:
VJ has shades of Ant (ridiculous explosiveness and over the rim athleticism paired with legit two-way upside).
Ace has shades of Durant (size and shotmaking).
Fears has shades of SGA (handles, deep bag of moves and foul drawing with him initiating contact).
Tre loses this round though. His max comp out of current guys is probably either Booker or Brown(?).
But the chances of Ace becoming Durant are near zero, while Fears also has so so many areas where he needs to improve to become anything close to what SGA is. VJ becoming different version of Ant and Tre becoming something like Booker are imo much more likely than the other outcomes.
VJ has shades of Ant (ridiculous explosiveness and over the rim athleticism paired with legit two-way upside).
Ace has shades of Durant (size and shotmaking).
Fears has shades of SGA (handles, deep bag of moves and foul drawing with him initiating contact).
Tre loses this round though. His max comp out of current guys is probably either Booker or Brown(?).
But the chances of Ace becoming Durant are near zero, while Fears also has so so many areas where he needs to improve to become anything close to what SGA is. VJ becoming different version of Ant and Tre becoming something like Booker are imo much more likely than the other outcomes.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
That’s not my point. Tre has defensive and playmaking chops. He was actually a good defender the first half of the season and it trailed off for whatever reason in the second half be it injuries which he mentioned in an interview or just fatigue, I don’t think he had the best team around him in a very good conference. He was his teams offense. He had to be stellar every game to win some of those games.
Here’s a video that talks about how good Tre could be if he improves his defense and playmaking. It references the fact that he can be a good defender and is a good playmaker but shoots too many contested, maybe not the greatest shots causing him to not utilize his playmaking skills enough which would help his efficiency go up and make him an even more dangerous offensive player than he already is.
View: https://youtu.be/L160BvUXZMs?si=ChI0puVu85C3Bbpp
The only similarities in their games is athleticism Ant has the ability to create space with his handles and run the offense. VJ needs to be set up and takes only set shots and wide open lanes. Hes not going to use sophisticated crossovers to get his defender, turned around to get to the hoop. The only similarities between the two is athleticism that’s as far as our games go that are similar.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
That is a truly bizarre take. Watch some of his games.
The VJ hate is stronger than I would ever have guessed.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
I have watched two of his games. I was a big fan of his till I watched him in full games a lot of his offense is streaking to the hoop and getting a pass off curls for a wide open lane. He can’t run an offense and doesn’t create space. His skill level isn’t that of a star and not someone we should be taking at 5.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Rewatching some Ace
-Jumpshot form is absolutely bizarre, can tell a make or miss immediately from how his arms are positioned on shot release. Doesn't shoot the same way every time, shoots wrong like 20-30% of the time.
-Not an unwilling passer, but not a good passer, very inaccurate, tons of passes thrown at feet.
-Motor runs extremely hot and cold on defense. Plays very hard at times, but takes plays off. Not many second efforts
-So physically weak that he gets owned on every screen. I would guess this is fixable.
A lot of this stuff seems fixable, but it depends on how much he's willing to fix. I don't really see any star potential, but there is a lot of high end role player potential... If he wants.
-Jumpshot form is absolutely bizarre, can tell a make or miss immediately from how his arms are positioned on shot release. Doesn't shoot the same way every time, shoots wrong like 20-30% of the time.
-Not an unwilling passer, but not a good passer, very inaccurate, tons of passes thrown at feet.
-Motor runs extremely hot and cold on defense. Plays very hard at times, but takes plays off. Not many second efforts
-So physically weak that he gets owned on every screen. I would guess this is fixable.
A lot of this stuff seems fixable, but it depends on how much he's willing to fix. I don't really see any star potential, but there is a lot of high end role player potential... If he wants.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Just watched Ace. Loved what I saw. If the 76ers pass on him they are crazy.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Ace comes off as having near Kuminga level personal stupidity and I think he would immediately drive the entire team batty.
If Embiid comes back from injury, we're going to have moments when Ace waives off Maxey, McCain, and Embiid to take the worst shot you've ever seen in your life.
Followed by Embiid choking him while Nick Nurse cheers it on.
The Hornets and Jazz also seem like they would be incensed by Ace as
1. The Hornets already have a billion of these guys
2. Will Hardy already hates every player on his team other than Walker and Lauri and Ace is basically everything he hates about basketball put together.
I don't think Ainge or the rest of ownership or the FO care much about Hardy's preferences though.
If Embiid comes back from injury, we're going to have moments when Ace waives off Maxey, McCain, and Embiid to take the worst shot you've ever seen in your life.
Followed by Embiid choking him while Nick Nurse cheers it on.
The Hornets and Jazz also seem like they would be incensed by Ace as
1. The Hornets already have a billion of these guys
2. Will Hardy already hates every player on his team other than Walker and Lauri and Ace is basically everything he hates about basketball put together.
I don't think Ainge or the rest of ownership or the FO care much about Hardy's preferences though.
framer
Well-Known Member
That's the biggest point. We opened up the Flip mystery box and it is moving in the best case direction. Queen is still a mystery. Big advantage Flip.
What's interesting is Herro has an awful wingspan (6'3") and Tre has a 6'10" wingspan (which is the same as Clarkson - but Tre is 3" taller than JC). I would bet Tre will be there at 5 though and I'm not complaining. I like how Tre can shoot from anywhere:
If you like numbers here's a really, really good article on Tre that makes me hope he's there at 5: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/tre-johnson-shooting-up-draft-boards
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Filipowski is a much better athlete than Queen while Queen is a much better scorer, they're a little different though both guys need to become way better at shooting to play in the NBA.
Queen I have around 15th and he would be a pretty miserable fit with the Jazz as the Jazz already have three pure big man prospects on their roster in Hendricks (PF only after weight gain and injury), Filipowski (Trapped between 4 and 5), and Kessler (5 only) and with Lauri being exclusively a 4 as well as he ages.
The Jazz have too many guys everywhere, but Kessler, Filipowski, and Hendricks are their clear three best prospects and they all play the only spots where Queen can play.
Queen I have around 15th and he would be a pretty miserable fit with the Jazz as the Jazz already have three pure big man prospects on their roster in Hendricks (PF only after weight gain and injury), Filipowski (Trapped between 4 and 5), and Kessler (5 only) and with Lauri being exclusively a 4 as well as he ages.
The Jazz have too many guys everywhere, but Kessler, Filipowski, and Hendricks are their clear three best prospects and they all play the only spots where Queen can play.
I specifically mentioned their similarities. VJ has the highest two-way potential of all the top prospects simply because he has high BBIQ, is a willing defender and possesses said athleticism. He is far from a lockdown defender but the only one of all top 5 guys I could see becoming one.
I think you undersell him a bit. He did play quite a lot of half court screen plays as the handler and even if he aint an iso guy like Ant he can beat defenders clean if they turn their hips the slightest.
Tre is my top guy of the trio but VJ and Ace are both right there with him.