The Jazz rebuild

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

Honest question: What kind of dumbass expects a 19 year old to come in and have an immediate impact?

I was as excited about Exum as everyone else here. I still have hope for him. But, currently he's on-track to be one of the worst 19-year-old PER players of all time.

WTH, I'll post this again:

https://bkref.com/tiny/KJoQE

I understand that it takes time for very young players to improve, but he has literally done nothing so far to indicate that is going to happen. At some point in his rookie year he has to start putting up numbers at least as good as an average NBA player. I hope he does. So far he's played below replacement-level.

 

[freakazoid]

If getting a true star or two is absolutely necessary to contend, and the late 1st and 2nd round picks you've mentioned repeatedly have actual value, why are the Jazz paying three non-stars $38mil combined?

Do you think Alec, a 6th man making $10mil, or Gordo, who'll be lucky to make more than one all star team (if that), have more trade value now or in the two seasons before they signed their deals? Why would a team trade a young star for Gordo at the max and some 2nds, late 1sts and overpaid complementary players?

If the plan is to tank, and pray for a franchise player in the draft, what's with the half measures? The only player DL has traded is Randy Foye.

I don't disagree with everything, but I think you're making a lot of assumptions that may or may not end up being true. Any team with Bogut and Curry as the key players could easily have injury problems. I'd say odds are better than good that at least Bogut will miss a significant amount of games. Also, Utah could trade both of their OWN picks in 16 & 17, protected or unprotected, since they have the GS pick. I doubt that happens outside of some blockbuster, but saying we only have a late 1st isn't accurate.
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As for the value of players, I have some of the same concerns you do, but I don't think we know one way or another just yet, and I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now. Honestly, I see two things as the biggest factors in why our rebuild is where it is. First, the missed golden opportunity of the lockout, and secondly, our success with making the right picks. Believe me when I say I am bitter as hell we didn't go full rebuild during the lockout, but I'm trying to forget what we can't change.
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As for draft picks, I'm probably more forgiving than most. I don't expect a GM to get every pick right, since it's just not realistic. I see trey as a likely failure because of the fact we blew two picks on him, but in all honesty, we never should have been in that situation if we hadn't screwed the pooch on chasing the 8th seed the year before. Therefore, I am less critical of that decision that some. Honestly, even though it didn't work out the way we hoped, I don't mind a move like that because I like the better odds.
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Just my opinion, but I wonder how much KOC and DL were handcuffed by the Millers in trying to make the playoffs instead of rebuilding in those last two years with AlSap. Making the playoffs honestly ****ing killed us because it planted the thought of building on our 4 asskickings from the year before. Absolute fool's gold, and I never doubted that for a minute. Worst 4 games of awesome playoff experience ever when you look at the way the chips have fallen.
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Lastly, I want to do some reading of the new CBA before I get too far into this, but I believe some of the changes in the CBA are inhibiting our rebuild right now. Shorter contracts, unguaranteed contracts, and more teams with caps space have kind of hurt the Jazz in their ability to take advantage of other team's desperation like they have in the past, IMO. I'll admit that I'm not as up to speed with the new CBA as I was with the last one, so I need to do a little studying.

 

[@nsanba]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

 

[Gameface]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

Wha-t th-e ***-* ar-e yo-u talkin-g abou-t?

 

[freakazoid]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

Interesting theory, but what? The changes I mentioned mean less opportunities for trades and for collecting picks by renting out cap space, because teams aren't as desperate to unload players, and the ones that have been have had more options in who they deal with. Lack of activity seems to be a big part of what you and others are calling into question, and fewer opportunities means Utah may have to grab what talent they can when they can, even if it means overpaying somewhat for some players. Obviously not the ideal situation, but I really believe better options have been scarce for the most part.

 

[Stoked]

Things DL did that I liked:

Gobert
Exum
Took his time with interviews replacing Corbin
Beefing up the scouting/support staff


I am very happy with the rebuild and the overall development improvement shown by the players.

Hayward looks stronger and more consistant than before
Gobert has dramatically improved. Can stay on the court and can catch the ball int he post and make smething happen
Favors J
Burke getting more assists

Still much room for improvement but overall the team is headed in the right direction. Very pleased.

Still got room on my bandwagon. I'm throwing in free sleeping pills for those to uptight to sit back and relax why we watch this team grow.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Yesterday on twitter I posted a message that read:

"Jazz fans should prepare themselves cause the Jazz might have botched the rebuild"

Let me just say that wasn't very well accepted by the good twitter folks out there. But what I thought was kind of troubling was that I was accused of having a simplistic view of the problem. Something like "jazz aren't contending right now, so rebuilding failed". Well let me explain in more than 140 carachters what I meant.

Why have the Jazz gone into the doldrums of the NBA? Why haven't they retained any good player they have had in the last few years and let all of them walk? Mostly cause they were afraid of being saddled with na average team. Yet I look at the team that was assembled to replace those "average" players and see very little signs of absolute stardom from the players now on the Jazz team. I see glimpses like everyone else but nothing more.

Not only that but most of the starting five are entering their 4th and 5th years in the NBA. Why is this importante? Cause you can hardly find a true relation between age and development in the NBA. BUT you can find a clear correlation between experience and development. Most jumps in prodution occur between the 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th season. That means that we might be looking at a much more finished product than we're willing to aknowledge. I'M NOT SAYING THE PLAYERS CAN'T PROGRESS. I'm saying that if they do in any significant way they will be, in a way, beating the odds.

So who is G and Favs, for instance? Borderline All-Stars? Wasn't that what we had before in Millsap and Big Al? Did we go trough the doldrums to end up moving sideways?

Thing is we should know by now the answer's to the questions listed above. The "not-so-young" core should have played much more and the FO should have a much better understanding of who they are. But they didn't. They didn't have a clear picture of who they are individually and they certainly haven't figured out if the mesh well together.

What other reason was there to not compete? The idea the Jazz needed to go into high lottery cause they wouldn't be able to retain talent or recrut talent. So think about it this way.....pick any player you want on the team to build the team around. When the Jazz are ready to contend they will have to have signed a new contract with the team before that happens. So why did the Jazz tank?

The Jazz are paying players a ton of Money, will have a hard time making trades cause there's no players out there that make sense and the players the Jazz have are very hard to trade for one reason or another.

Not only that but the Jazz are failing they're own standards for the season:
* play with the pass? no
* obvious unselfishness? not quite
* play better defense? hardly
* play with pace? no
* attack at the 45º? yes

It's not like I haven't seen the Jazz progresso this season. Some progress has been made. But the signs aren't pointing into the rebuild being a sucess story just of yet. In fact they might be pointing in the other diretion.

RANT OVER.

Oh my hell!!! That's all I'm going to say. I don't want to get banned, but keep it short. Don't pretend to be an expert. Please. Just be a damned fan who doesn't know what the hell they are talking about! Again, good hell that was bad!!

 

[Stoked]

The Jazz have been playing with the pass. There is a stat out there showing that the Jazz averaged over 100 passes more than anyone else.

There have been multiple plays per game where guys make the unselfish play/pass.

I agree that the D is still bad.

 

[@nsanba]

Interesting theory, but what? The changes I mentioned mean less opportunities for trades and for collecting picks by renting out cap space, because teams aren't as desperate to unload players, and the ones that have been have had more options in who they deal with. Lack of activity seems to be a big part of what you and others are calling into question, and fewer opportunities means Utah may have to grab what talent they can when they can, even if it means overpaying somewhat for some players. Obviously not the ideal situation, but I really believe better options have been scarce for the most part.

I forgot to mention that the "win title within' first 7 ys theory" can be traced back to about 1991. Before there were players that won almost imediatelly.

And the number of teams with cap space is a direct result of shorter contracts as well.

 

[framer]

Couple of things:

1. Signing players to fair contracts , even if they are expensive, is a vital part of the rebuild. Players on fair contracts can be traded. Hayward and Favors could be traded tomorrow to multiple teams. Burks may be an overpay, but I think it will turn out to be slight.
2. Players that are one year away from RFA (Kanter) are VERY tradable because the receiving team knows they can keep them for longer than the rest of the year. Players that will be UFA are just about untradeable other than as cap relief. If you wanted to trade Jeff and Sap it needed to be two years before they went UFA.
3. All of the rumored deals for Sapp were bunk. Atlanta wasn't even discussed and they are the ones who signed Sap on the cheap. If all of the teams that had rumored interest in him had ACTUALLY been interested in him, they would have signed him. Likely they wanted Sap plus OTHER considerations.
4. I'm OK if Burke develops as a backup 1. We got him late lottery in a bad draft. That is where you find backup 1's.
5. There will come a point where we will need to make a trade of some sort this year to spark the team. I love the development, but at some point it will be swallowed up by despair and indifference. The coaches need to be less afraid of scuffing a brand new Exum by actually taking him out of the package once in a while. But, yeah, having him start is a ticket to Townesville. . .

 

[freakazoid]

I forgot to mention that the "win title within' first 7 ys theory" can be traced back to about 1991. Before there were players that won almost imediatelly.

And the number of teams with cap space is a direct result of shorter contracts as well.

Wasn't necessarily trying to discount your idea, I just don't see it as something that has affected Utah, and my reason for bringing up the changes in the CBA was to address the complaints about the FO. Not only that, but aren't you assuming all FAs automatically leave as soon as they become unrestricted? Seems to me that you don't really need to win in that window, you just need to get good enough to convince your UFAs to re-sign. Potential problem, maybe, but certainly not automatic, and not something that has affected us yet.

 

[sojodave]

This is just my opinion, but I think DL was the one who convinced the Millers that going the youth movement was the better route for rebuilding than chasing the 8th seed every year. I think once DL got the green light on going young, it changed the strategy. My biggest concern is that if you go young, you better not have the wrong players. If we tied our wagon to the wrong players, where does that leave us? We’ve been in asset accumulation mode since DL took over and eventually you need to cash you chips in on a big move.

We are at the point in our rebuild where many GM’s have panicked. They make a trade to bring in a vet to try and plug the holes on a team. This just extends the bleeding and doesn’t help in the long run. I have faith in DL’s plan and even though it’s going to be a rough ride, eventually there may be light at the end of our dark tunnel. Let’s just hope it’s not an oncoming train…

 

[framer]

This is just my opinion, but I think DL was the one who convinced the Millers that going the youth movement was the better route for rebuilding than chasing the 8th seed every year. I think once DL got the green light on going young, it changed the strategy. My biggest concern is that if you go young, you better not have the wrong players. If we tied our wagon to the wrong players, where does that leave us? We’ve been in asset accumulation mode since DL took over and eventually you need to cash you chips in on a big move.

We are at the point in our rebuild where many GM’s have panicked. They make a trade to bring in a vet to try and plug the holes on a team. This just extends the bleeding and doesn’t help in the long run. I have faith in DL’s plan and even though it’s going to be a rough ride, eventually there may be light at the end of our dark tunnel. Let’s just hope it’s not an oncoming train…

This all pretty much depends upon Exum. If he is legit, we are in a good place. If he is a bust, we are kind of screwed unless we get lucky somewhere else. . .

 

[Stifle Tower]

This is just my opinion, but I think DL was the one who convinced the Millers that going the youth movement was the better route for rebuilding than chasing the 8th seed every year. I think once DL got the green light on going young, it changed the strategy. My biggest concern is that if you go young, you better not have the wrong players. If we tied our wagon to the wrong players, where does that leave us? We’ve been in asset accumulation mode since DL took over and eventually you need to cash you chips in on a big move.

It is not just your opinion. If you go back to the DN or Trib (or other sources) you will read that the FO was split. In the week of the trade, it was reported the Jazz were still in conversations with Millsap and his agent. Carroll was unsigned; Foye was unsigned. We know Big Al was never a consideration; he moved almost immediately after the season ended. As for trades and "getting something back" it irritates me to no end when people toss this about. As framer said, what is the market for a guy who will be an UFA? It has to be a playoff team. Any contender is NOT going to send back a rotation player of value. So you a) have to find a playoff team needing a center; b) find one with equal expiring contracts to send out in exchange. I looked at every team and only saw maybe 2-3 possibilities. As for Millsap, there was still internal discussion about keeping him up until the July trade, so no trade was ever going to be made at the deadline.

We are at the point in our rebuild where many GM’s have panicked. They make a trade to bring in a vet to try and plug the holes on a team. This just extends the bleeding and doesn’t help in the long run. I have faith in DL’s plan and even though it’s going to be a rough ride, eventually there may be light at the end of our dark tunnel. Let’s just hope it’s not an oncoming train…

I doubt DL will panic. He has been all about "not skipping steps." I'm sure he'll listen to offers, but we're in position to draft anywhere from 1-8. It will be important to know exactly where that pick lands, for us and for any potential trading partner. He's also made sure we have cap space in 2015 to sign a significant FA (and maybe 2 depending on whether or not we keep Kanter). He's not going to muck that up - unless an all-star caliber player can be had.

 

[Coach Ellis]

The Jazz are fine. They have some nice pieces in Hayward, Exum and Favors, Burks is at least a solid 6th man, and Gobert and Hood both look like they will turn into (at the very least) good reserves. They need to grab the best player they can in the draft, see what the market bears out for Kanter and decide what (if any) future Trey Burke has in Utah. If they can get a solid wing defender like K. J. McDaniels or DeMarre Carroll and then cash in their many assets for a #1 scoring vet, they should have a solid roster. I think that they're going to count on Exum and Gobert developing and then see where that leaves them next year after they add 2-3 new players to bolster the offense, defense and bench.

 

[devin_c]

So who's ready to sign Tracy McGrady?

 

[Farmer.Tan]

DL is looking like one of the worst GMs in the NBA.

And GVC is looking like one of the best.

 

[Coach Ellis]

The Jazz are in year 2 of their full on rebuild, and doing so with an incredibly young team and a rookie coach. I'm an optimist, but this is pretty much what I was expecting. I'm curious to see at what point Gobert, Exum and/or Hood find their way into the starting lineup (just to see), but I'm not upset with the gameplan so far. Play the Core 5 together and let the (super) young players like Exum, Gobert and Hood all develop with less minutes off the bench. The Jazz are still at least two pieces away from making any sort of impact.

Before you all throw in the towel, just remember that the Jazz have better assets, better young players AND a better cap situation than the Rockets did 4 years ago, and somehow Houston managed to put together a roster of Lin (7/12), Asik (7/12) Harden (10/12), Beverly (7/13), Parsons (2011 Draft - 2nd round) and Howard (7/13). All except Parsons were acquired through trades and free agency after the start of the 2012 offseason, AND they nearly had the cap room to add another max player this past offseason.

It's not the manner that I'd have taken for building a championship team, but there's moves to be made for an aggressive GM. The Jazz have some good young talent that are all learning how to play together and they are in a great shape to add to their current roster through good cap management and a boatload of assets.

 

[Hotdog]

Mistakes

Not matching on Mathews
Not trading Al and Millsap, or keep Millsap.
Not tanking sooner

Hayward, Mathews, and Millsap would be nice right now.

Obviously, keeping Mathews and Millsap would change a lot of things, and tanking doesn't fit in that picture, but mistakes none the less.

I always felt that we were riding the fence. Either tank and get it over with or start trading picks for players and making other trades and signings to get you somewhere.

Good Decisions

Drafting Hayward, Gobert.....



Conclusions, draft better.

 

[GVC]

As framer said, what is the market for a guy who will be an UFA? It has to be a playoff team. Any contender is NOT going to send back a rotation player of value. So you a) have to find a playoff team needing a center; b) find one with equal expiring contracts to send out in exchange. I looked at every team and only saw maybe 2-3 possibilities.

It absolutely does not have to be a playoff team. It can also be a team that won't have the cap space to sign the player they're acquiring. That is, the Bird rights are valuable for teams over the cap. Even if the Jazz only got second round picks for them, they'd be following the strategy you've been advocating: Losing more games to improve their own draft position AND acquiring more picks that can potentially be used to acquire the necessary superstar.