The Jazz rebuild

[GVC]

Before you all throw in the towel, just remember that the Jazz have better assets, better young players AND a better cap situation than the Rockets did 4 years ago, and somehow Houston managed to put together a roster of Lin (7/12), Asik (7/12) Harden (10/12), Beverly (7/13), Parsons (2011 Draft - 2nd round) and Howard (7/13). All except Parsons were acquired through trades and free agency after the start of the 2012 offseason, AND they nearly had the cap room to add another max player this past offseason.

With the amnesty provision, the Rockets only had one player (Kevin Martin) making more than $6mil per year in the summer of 2012. Moving an underpaid Kyle Lowry and cheap Courtney Lee was much easier than moving the $38mil per year committed to Favors, Hayward and Burks. Morey also has a history of making big deals and acquiring assets in the form of real NBA players. DL in 2+ years has yet to trade or trade for legitimate NBA rotation players. His best FA signing to date is Trevor Booker (who could be an incredibly valuable trade piece IMO).

A compelling argument can be made that the Jazz are worse off with their current assets (in players and picks) than they were in the summer of 2012. I tend to think this is the case. Given that, if pushed to give a grade to DL other than "incomplete", I'd give him a C. That may be generous.

 

[freakazoid]

Mistakes

Not matching on Mathews
Not trading Al and Millsap, or keep Millsap.
Not tanking sooner

Hayward, Mathews, and Millsap would be nice right now.

Obviously, keeping Mathews and Millsap would change a lot of things, and tanking doesn't fit in that picture, but mistakes none the less.

I always felt that we were riding the fence. Either tank and get it over with or start trading picks for players and making other trades and signings to get you somewhere.

Good Decisions

Drafting Hayward, Gobert.....



Conclusions, draft better.

First off, Sap was unrestricted and Utah had regressed as a team, which was mediocre at best to begin with. Not sure why anybody assumes we turned down the chance to keep him, rather than Sap just chose to move on. Secondly, keeping Sap would have meant no commitment to a serious rebuild, so no, it wasn't a mistake. You either agree with the strategy we're involved in or you don't. Half-assed rebuilding was the main mistake that killed our chance for a quick rebuild.

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

With the amnesty provision, the Rockets only had one player (Kevin Martin) making more than $6mil per year in the summer of 2012. Moving an underpaid Kyle Lowry and cheap Courtney Lee was much easier than moving the $38mil per year committed to Favors, Hayward and Burks. Morey also has a history of making big deals and acquiring assets in the form of real NBA players. DL in 2+ years has yet to trade or trade for legitimate NBA rotation players. His best FA signing to date is Trevor Booker (who could be an incredibly valuable trade piece IMO).

A compelling argument can be made that the Jazz are worse off with their current assets (in players and picks) than they were in the summer of 2012. I tend to think this is the case. Given that, if pushed to give a grade to DL other than "incomplete", I'd give him a C. That may be generous.

Pretty tough to get stud FA's to want to play here.

 

[bat]

I thought this article was interesting in regards to how the Jazz rebuild was going, how long should it take? https://www.ksl.com/?sid=32683382&nid=304&fm=most_popular

 

[freakazoid]

DL in 2+ years has yet to trade or trade for legitimate NBA rotation players. His best FA signing to date is Trevor Booker (who could be an incredibly valuable trade piece IMO).

I think we can both agree that the team we are looking at isn't quite this bad by accident, no? Taking small steps up kinda goes against trying to score big through the draft. I'm more disappointed in our ability to collect assets recently, but I really do believe a lot of that is due to changes in the CBA. I don't necessarily disagree that we were in a better position when DL took over, but I'd be surprised if the Millers gave him the option of trading out of a chance at the playoffs. Not saying I know that to be true, but that's what I believe. If we are to believe the papers, DL still had to do some convincing to get the Millers to allow him to do things his way, even after they realized they effed up with Al and Sap. Hopefully the Millers take a step back and just let DL run the show.
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I've always suspected over the years that KOC was handcuffed at times by decisions of taking the immediate money, rather than looking to the future. As someone who supported him and defended him for years, I have to believe he would have went into full rebuild during a year when the returns would have been so astronomical. If it was his call and his call only, it was definitely time for him to turn the reigns over to someone else.

 

[GVC]

...but I'd be surprised if the Millers gave him the option of trading out of a chance at the playoffs. Not saying I know that to be true, but that's what I believe. If we are to believe the papers, DL still had to do some convincing to get the Millers to allow him to do things his way, even after 2 years of fools gold. Hopefully the Millers take a step back and just let DL run the show.
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I've always suspected over the years that KOC was handcuffed at times by decisions of taking the immediate money, rather than looking to the future. As someone who supported him and defended him for years, I have to believe he would have went into full rebuild during a year when the returns would have been so astronomical. If it was his call and his call only, that was a major blunder and it was definitely time for him to turn the reigns over to someone else.

Sure...the goals of ownership, management and fans don't always line up perfectly. I'm not sure half-assing tanking is the right option, however. I'd rather take advantage of all available avenues to build a competitive, entertaining team than draft in the 5-10 range every year (like Sacramento and Minnesota...). DL has to score big in trades for this strategy to work (if the only thing that matters is building a championship team).

I don't think building a championship team is the only thing that matters, however. I really enjoyed watching the 03/04 team and a few of the Deron-Boozer teams. I actually enjoy watching well-played basketball. I'd probably rather watch a consistent 45-55 win team that plays good, competitive basketball but is never a top-5 contender for the rest of my life than get a single championship and watch 20-35 win teams every other season. I don't think that championship is going to change my life dramatically.

 

[framer]

It absolutely does not have to be a playoff team. It can also be a team that won't have the cap space to sign the player they're acquiring. That is, the Bird rights are valuable for teams over the cap. Even if the Jazz only got second round picks for them, they'd be following the strategy you've been advocating: Losing more games to improve their own draft position AND acquiring more picks that can potentially be used to acquire the necessary superstar.

How many more second round picks do the Jazz need? We got like what, 5 extra second rounders in the next 5 years? The problem with this plan is that you have to take back salary which we were dead set on NOT doing. All of these trades people keep mentioning "that could have been had" for Jefferson and Sap also wanted some of our young guys as sweeteners AND we take on salary. Screw that. Again, when all of these teams that "wanted" Sap had the chance to make a run at him, they didn't and he had to fly coach. The correct answer would have been to blow things up after the lockout. However it could be argued that tanking right after the lockout could have been REALLY damaging for fan support, so I can see why they did what they did. That decision pretty much determined that Jeff and Sap were going to walk if we didn't catch lightning in a bottle. I voiced that I would have liked to keep Sap, but then we would be rolling with someone like Vonleh rather than Exum right now and probably would have dealt Kanter by now or not drafted Gobert. My heart trembles at the thought of Gobert not being a Jazzman. . .

 

[freakazoid]

The correct answer would have been to blow things up after the lockout. .

Why, just because they missed the playoffs and now we have hindsight? I don't care if we had made the playoffs that last year, it was the wrong strategy and it was the lockout year that we could have cleaned up. Losing both those assets for nothing was a mistake, but the big mistake was not going full rebuild during the lockout.

 

[freakazoid]

DL has to score big in trades for this strategy to work (if the only thing that matters is building a championship team).

I don't think building a championship team is the only thing that matters, however. I really enjoyed watching the 03/04 team and a few of the Deron-Boozer teams. I actually enjoy watching well-played basketball. I'd probably rather watch a consistent 45-55 win team that plays good, competitive basketball but is never a top-5 contender for the rest of my life than get a single championship and watch 20-35 win teams every other season. I don't think that championship is going to change my life dramatically.

I'm happy with a team that has a decent chance at the second round, and I don't mind getting bumped in the first round, as long as I believe the team is growing. Championships aren't just the product of good management, it takes a lot of luck as well, so I keep my expectations realistic. To me, the biggest factor is finding the right players, and IMO, the draft is our best shot at acquiring those players and keeping them for any significant amount of time. But yeah, if there's any shot at building something like we had with John and Karl or what the Spurs have, I'm willing to go through some down years and even if they end up never getting past the second round, it was still worth it for a chance to return to glory.
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I also enjoyed the Deron/Boozer/Ak/Memo days, but without Deron Williams, those years would have been much less interesting. It would be great if things could always work as well as the way it did when we drafted Deron, and I think it could have, but that was sacrificed for 4 playoff games and now we're dealing with the consequences.

 

[fishonjazz]

Good Decisions

Drafting Hayward, Gobert.....



Conclusions, draft better.

Hayward is looking like a steal at #9 in an average draft

Gobert definitely a steal in a weak draft.

Favors slightly dissappointing at #3 pick (we didn't draft him)

Kanter disappointing as a number 3 pick, but at least not a complete bust.

Burks is better than alot of #12 picks (and a lot of people thought he was going to be a crappy chucker after his first two years). I think burks will still improve.

Hood is a steal at pick #21 imo.

I have no idea about exum but he was consensus bpa at #5

Trey was ranked as the best player at his position in a position we had a very bad need for

I like the neto pick.

So we have had a few players exceed expectations. A few players underachieve a bit. And a few players that are right about what they were expected to be.
Not too bad imo

Now the players need to either improve some more together in quins system (I think they will) or we need to use then smartly in trades.
I think both of those things can still happen.

(Oh and we still have some cap space too)

 

[Hotdog]

I think the biggest weakness and the problem with the Jazz has been the weak moves they make. From trading to drafting, it's all the same. It's play it safe and pick nice guys who fit in the community. Also, not fully committing to the tank. Also, catering to veterans who don't play defense, instead of just benching their dumb asses.

Had the Jazz been a lot more aggressive after the D will trade then I think we would be in a lot better position. Instead they were content with losing players for nothing and not trying to keep draft picks in that Anthony Davis 2012 draft.

 

[Stifle Tower]

But yeah, if there's any shot at building something like we had with John and Karl or what the Spurs have, I'm willing to go through some down years and even if they end up never getting past the second round, it was still worth it for a chance to return to glory.
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I also enjoyed the Deron/Boozer/Ak/Memo days, but without Deron Williams, those years would have been much less interesting. It would be great if things could always work as well as the way it did when we drafted Deron, and I think it could have, but that was sacrificed for 4 playoff games and now we're dealing with the consequences.

Where were John and Karl drafted? It didn't entail a full tank (a la Philadelphia) or Seattle/OKC and getting picks in the 1-3 range. San Antonio was a very lucky, once-in-a-generation situation. They had a very good team, but then key players get hurt and they finish worst in the very year a transcendent talent (Duncan) is the #1 pick. To a certain extent, this ALMOST happened with the Jazz. Utah had pretty good talent, Boozer and AK went down, and the Jazz got Deron.

How could Utah have fully committed to the tank last year? DL provided the team with no bench. Corbin contributed by playing one of the worst defenders in the NBA at his position a ton of minutes (RJ). Should Utah have traded Hayward for a lottery-protected pick and Favors and Kanter for 2nd rounders? Maybe insisted Trey take the whole season off to heal? And who would we have drafted? I think there is very little chance to have out-tanked Milwaukee and likely Philadelphia. So Utah could have finished ahead of Orlando. And that leaves Utah with the #4 pick (Cleveland moved up) and a choice between Gordon and Exum. Jazz take Exum EVERY time. And that is NOT playing it safe. Safe is taking a guy like Randle who you know is going to be solid. Or safe is re-signing Millsap, Carroll and Foye and competing for the 8th seed.

To hold DL's feet to the fire and criticize him for not making a blockbuster trade is disingenuous. He's had control of the team for less than 2 seasons. Up until July 2013, there was still a divide over re-signing Millsap and others or going full rebuild. Trading Millsap was never an option. True, we didn't get anything for Jefferson. But I challenge any of you to come up with a viable trade scenario. I tried; the trading partners were limited and most would have involved taking on another year's salary. And for what? A late 1st from a contender? Those can generally be had for $3M cash, just like we got from Denver in order to draft Gobert. So take on a junk contract for pick in the late 20's or free up cap space and buy a pick or sign a better FA with that money?

Hood on a rookie contract for an expiring Jefferson. Would that be a good trade? That's essentially what we got for using the Big Al salary slot and making the GS deal. And a 2017 1st from them for Paul Millsap (or vice versa). Had we taken back non-expiring contracts for either of those players, the GS deal doesn't get done.

 

[Stifle Tower]

First off, Sap was unrestricted and Utah had regressed as a team, which was mediocre at best to begin with. Not sure why anybody assumes we turned down the chance to keep him, rather than Sap just chose to move on. Secondly, keeping Sap would have meant no commitment to a serious rebuild, so no, it wasn't a mistake. You either agree with the strategy we're involved in or you don't. Half-assed rebuilding was the main mistake that killed our chance for a quick rebuild.

I don't necessarily disagree with a "half-assed" rebuild. We pursued that strategy after Karl and John left. Tried for a couple of FA's and failed, but didn't panic, kept the salary slots open and overpaid for two unproven players in Boozer and Okur. Then got lucky when AK and Boozer were hurt and the Jazz got the pick that became Deron. Went all the way to the WC Finals. Next "rebuild" was an attempt to keep Deron, a definite "franchise" player at the time, satisfied by bringing in Big Al. Deron was very happy with that move, even calling AJ and saying he was going to make him an all-star. But, of course, that rebuild/re-tool was not a success. Playoff appearances as a low seed, and the Deron rebellion.

I do think we could have retained Millsap, Carroll and Foye. And we'd all be bitching (or most of us, anyways) at getting swept by SA, OKC, the Clippers or any other top team. OK, maybe we win one game every other year. Or maybe we don't make the playoffs at all. It's looking like 50 wins in the WC this season to make the playoffs after Dallas needed 49 last year for the #8 seed.

I'm in on the strategy DL is using. I know some think it's not good enough. All our starters are very young and were lottery picks. Our backups, with the exception of Ingles, are all young and most were picked in the 1st round. We'll have maybe $15M or so in cap space, even if Kanter gets a QO. Jazz will have another top-8 pick. That is a LOT of talent, especially if that cap space can be used to acquire another quality player in free agency or via trade. I think it's way too early to judge Lindsey's rebuild. There are still two major pieces to add next season (high draft pick + free agent) or a trade or two involving assets we either have now or will have.

 

[freakazoid]

Where were John and Karl drafted? It didn't entail a full tank (a la Philadelphia) or Seattle/OKC and getting picks in the 1-3 range. San Antonio was a very lucky, once-in-a-generation situation. .

Good luck finding a HOF in the teens nowadays, let alone two. Scouting is a completely different animal than it was back then, and comparing those drafts to the modern draft is silly. The point of using those two teams as examples is to show how important it is to find the right players.

 

[freakazoid]

Trading Millsap was never an option. True, we didn't get anything for Jefferson. But I challenge any of you to come up with a viable trade scenario. I tried; the trading partners were limited and most would have involved taking on another year's salary. And for what? A late 1st from a contender? Those can generally be had for $3M cash, just like we got from Denver in order to draft Gobert. So take on a junk contract for pick in the late 20's or free up cap space and buy a pick or sign a better FA with that money?
.

Lol. Ever heard of Andrew Bogut? Yeah, probably not worth the effort. Trading Al and/or Sap for rebuilding pieces also would have affected the two picks we eventually traded for Trey, so holy **** yes, taking on salary for pick/s would have been way more than worth it when you look at the big picture. This crap about picks only being worth 3 mill is stupid. Utah traded 3 picks to get Deron. Stupid us for trading 9 million worth of picks for a 3 million pick. You're over-simplifying, and the asset value we effed up during the lockout is just flat-out depressing.
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Trading Millsap wasn't an option? Maybe from a fan viewpoint, but from a management viewpoint, rebuilding was an option and Sap was our best trade asset. Of course it was an option.

 

[GVC]

To hold DL's feet to the fire and criticize him for not making a blockbuster trade is disingenuous. He's had control of the team for less than 2 seasons. Up until July 2013, there was still a divide over re-signing Millsap and others or going full rebuild. Trading Millsap was never an option. True, we didn't get anything for Jefferson. But I challenge any of you to come up with a viable trade scenario. I tried; the trading partners were limited and most would have involved taking on another year's salary. And for what? A late 1st from a contender? Those can generally be had for $3M cash, just like we got from Denver in order to draft Gobert. So take on a junk contract for pick in the late 20's or free up cap space and buy a pick or sign a better FA with that money?

Hood on a rookie contract for an expiring Jefferson. Would that be a good trade? That's essentially what we got for using the Big Al salary slot and making the GS deal. And a 2017 1st from them for Paul Millsap (or vice versa). Had we taken back non-expiring contracts for either of those players, the GS deal doesn't get done.

1. You only tried creating a trade that involved a playoff team. Other teams over the cap looking to add talent or under the cap looking to re-sign a player potentially for more than his salary hold would also have valued the Bird rights that came with Jefferson/Millsap.

2. I simply don't buy that there wasn't a team out there willing to give up at least a second round pick for Al/Sap without giving up longterm salary. I've gone through the teams/cap situation, and there are several trades that can be put together. Once again, the Jazz got nothing for Al and Sap.

3. Trading Al and Sap would have hurt the quality of the team and improved their draft pick(s). You've asserted that the Jazz will not ever find a superstar via trade or free agency. If that's the case, you need to tank hard.

 

[Stifle Tower]

1. You only tried creating a trade that involved a playoff team. Other teams over the cap looking to add talent or under the cap looking to re-sign a player potentially for more than his salary hold would also have valued the Bird rights that came with Jefferson/Millsap.

2. I simply don't buy that there wasn't a team out there willing to give up at least a second round pick for Al/Sap without giving up longterm salary. I've gone through the teams/cap situation, and there are several trades that can be put together. Once again, the Jazz got nothing for Al and Sap.

3. Trading Al and Sap would have hurt the quality of the team and improved their draft pick(s). You've asserted that the Jazz will not ever find a superstar via trade or free agency. If that's the case, you need to tank hard.

Bird rights are only important if you need to sign a player for maximum number of years or money. Big Al and Millsap were UFA's. Neither were going to get Bird years or money.

Actually, I went through ALL 29 teams. There were only a few that made sense. Again, if the value of Al or Paul isn't max, then Bird rights are of zero value. No team out of playoff contention had any incentive to trade for those two...unless they were able to give Utah a longer-term deal. I'm sure we could have gotten players like Prince or Amare + a second rounder.

Again, though, almost every season a late first has been available for sale from teams at or over the cap or luxury tax (at $3M). Many "experts" have said an early second is more valuable than a late first: nearly the same talent pool (depending on the spread), but one contract is 100% guaranteed and the other has 0 guarantee. So if you "miss" in the pick, you can cut a 2nd-rounder immediately. You're stuck with that late 1st, though.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

Given that it wasn't really until around the trade deadline and after, GVC, that the Jazz weren't playoff contenders that year, it would have been a complete firestorm for the Jazz to have thrown up their hands and said "we're blowing it up" and trading their best players and completely torn down the team for a couple of second round picks.

Restarting after the season was the better alternative.

 

[GVC]

Bird rights are only important if you need to sign a player for maximum number of years or money.

Uh, no. Bird rights allow you to go over the cap to sign your own player. The contract length/size isn't nearly as important.

 

[GVC]

Given that it wasn't really until around the trade deadline and after, GVC, that the Jazz weren't playoff contenders that year, it would have been a complete firestorm for the Jazz to have thrown up their hands and said "we're blowing it up" and trading their best players and completely torn down the team for a couple of second round picks.

And? I'm addressing freak and stifle. Stifle has asserted that the only way the Jazz will ever build a contender is by drafting a superstar. If that's the case, and you believe that winning a championship is the only thing that matters, you do whatever you can to get more draft picks and to better your draft position.