2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

[whatthe]

I don’t see how you get extra value for solidifying or completing the asset. Would you give up better odds in order to have worse odds from the Lakers? I would not. There is no bonus multiplier for having 100% of the outcomes.

Unprotected is the king of all draft assets

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It’s really not any different than a protected pick the other way IMO. Like I said, the Jazz traded for a pick with a certain chance they don’t get it. I wouldn’t call it NBA crypto, I would just call it a protected pic.

You’re paying for a certain set of outcomes. When you buy/sell a certain outcome, it does not really matter who owns the other outcomes.

Its a hedge for us (or whoever we trade it to) whereas its a highly speculative transaction for others. It makes a lot of sense for us to hedge against the asset we already have.

 

[KqWIN]

What do you mean better odds?

If the Lakers odds are more valuable to the Jazz because the Jazz have the other outcomes, it must mean you would accept worse odds at 1-4 due to the desire of having all Lakers outcomes.

For example, let’s say we’re pre lottery in 2027. The Lakers are in the lottery and the Clippers are one position ahead of them. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at 1-4 or the Clippers lotto chances at 1-4?

Every team would rather have Lakers 5-30 and Clippers 1-4 over Lakers 1-30.

 

[KqWIN]

Its a hedge for us (or whoever we trade it to) whereas its a highly speculative transaction for others. It makes a lot of sense for us to hedge against the asset we already have.

I don’t think the hedge matters. What matters is the expected value, and that is the same across the board. It’s really just the same as any other protected pick imo.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If the Lakers odds are more valuable to the Jazz because the Jazz have the other outcomes, it must mean you would accept worse odds at 1-4 due to the desire of having all Lakers outcomes.

For example, let’s say we’re pre lottery in 2027. The Lakers are in the lottery and the Clippers are one position ahead of them. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at 1-4 or the Clippers lotto chances at 1-4?

Every team would rather have Lakers 5-30 and Clippers 1-4 over Lakers 1-30.

That’s pre-lottery in 2027 not sure how that is relevant to 2024 right now?

If we knew the exact order in 2027 your example would make sense but we don’t.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t think the hedge matters. What matters is the expected value, and that is the same across the board. It’s really just the same as any other protected pick imo.

The hedge matters. That's why hedges exist is to protect the value of a bigger asset against an unlikely event that may cause it to lose value. You are a GM trading for that pick and then it hits top 4 you feel real dumb... you don't think a GM acquiring that is going to think about that? Also the hedge would figure into the expected value.

 

[KqWIN]

That’s pre-lottery in 2027 not sure how that is relevant to 2024 right now?

Because it outlines the value equation. If you think the Lakers pick is more valuable because we have the rest of the outcomes, you just be willing to take worse outcomes at the “benefit” of solidifying the asset. It’s difficult to name something that has slightly more chances at hitting top 4 right now, but go ahead and come up with any team you want. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at top 4 or whatever you deem to be slightly more likely at top 4?

 

[Elizah Huge]

Because it outlines the value equation. If you think the Lakers pick is more valuable because we have the rest of the outcomes, you just be willing to take worse outcomes at the “benefit” of solidifying the asset. It’s difficult to name something that has slightly more chances at hitting top 4 right now, but go ahead and come up with any team you want. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at top 4 or whatever you deem to be slightly more likely at top 4?

The cost for the Lakers 1-4 for us would be lower than an unprotected first from anyone else you think is similar value. For being so smart of a guy I’m not sure how you’re whiffing this badly on this one.

Nobody just trades for 1-4 of a pick. They do trade to take protections off a pick they already own though. We’ve seen it happen.

 

[KqWIN]

The hedge matters. That's why hedges exist is to protect the value of a bigger asset against an unlikely event that may cause it to lose value. You are a GM trading for that pick and then it hits top 4 you feel real dumb... you don't think a GM acquiring that is going to think about that? Also the hedge would figure into the expected value.

You are going to feel dumb trading for any protected pick if it doesn’t convey. The Jazz traded for a pick knowing it may not convey (or it will be converted in this case). The chances a pick does not convey is reflected in the value in that pick.

It does not matter if you own 5-30, chances at top 4 are exactly the same.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If it’s 2027:

Lakers are at 4 and Clippers are at 3 pre-lottery.

I would rather have the Lakers at 4 unprotected than just the Clippers 1-4 if it meant I lose the Clippers pick if it lands 5-8.

I think that’s the best example I can give you to why it matters more to us than anyone else.

 

[KqWIN]

The cost for the Lakers 1-4 for us would be lower than an unprotected first from anyone else you think is similar value. For being so smart of a guy I’m not sure how you’re whiffing this badly on this one.

Uhh…what? No we do not get a discount because we own the rest of the picks.

It will not cost less for us. If the Lakers are selling 1-4 for $10. They do not care that the Jazz own 5-30. They will not sell it to us for $9 if another team wants if for $10.

I will put it as simply as I can. If you think the Lakers top 4 is more valuable to us because we own 5-30 then you must also say that you would be willing to accept worse odds from another team who we don’t own 5-30. That’s it.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Uhh…what? No we do not get a discount because we own the rest of the picks.

It will not cost less for us. If the Lakers are selling 1-4 for $10. They do not care that the Jazz own 5-30. They will not sell it to us for $9 if another team wants if for $10.

I will put it as simply as I can. If you think the Lakers top 4 is more valuable to us because we own 5-30 then you must also say that you would be willing to accept worse odds from another team who we don’t own 5-30. That’s it.

You didn’t read what I said at all. The cost for the Lakers 1-4 is lower than the Clippers unprotected.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You are going to feel dumb trading for any protected pick if it doesn’t convey. The Jazz traded for a pick knowing it may not convey (or it will be converted in this case). The chances a pick does not convey is reflected in the value in that pick.

It does not matter if you own 5-30, chances at top 4 are exactly the same.

Yes and companies and GMs value security and safety... so having the hedge of the asset you are protecting is better than having another random hedge. Ethanol companies buy corn hedges not steel hedges even if the indicators seem to think the steel hedge is a better value. Its the same principle. There is a lot of uncertainty between now and 2027 so if I trade the Lakers pick that could be 5-44 and say Miami's 2027 pick but only 1-4 its not the same as being able to trade the lakers pick 1-30.

There is emotion there as well as math.

 

[KqWIN]

If it’s 2027:

Lakers are at 4 and Clippers are at 3 pre-lottery.

I would rather have the Lakers at 4 unprotected than just the Clippers 1-4 if it meant I lose the Clippers pick if it lands 5-8.

I think that’s the best example I can give you to why it matters more to us than anyone else.

Well there you go, you have demonstrated that you are willing to take worse odds. For what benefit? I’m not sure. But if you want the worse odds we’ll agree to disagree. I want the better odds.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Well there you go, you have demonstrated that you are willing to take worse odds. For what benefit? I’m not sure. But if you want the worse odds we’ll agree to disagree. I want the better odds.

The benefit of actually keeping the pick? Lmao dude you’re making no ****ing sense.

 

[KqWIN]

Yes and companies and GMs value security and safety... so having the hedge of the asset you are protecting is better than having another random hedge. Ethanol companies buy corn hedges not steel hedges even if the indicators seem to think the steel hedge is a better value. Its the same principle. There is a lot of uncertainty between now and 2027 so if I trade the Lakers pick that could be 5-44 and say Miami's 2027 pick but only 1-4 its not the same as being able to trade the lakers pick 1-30.

There is emotion there as well as math.

Meh…I think this is the same as other protected picks. I don’t think top X has special value to the team that holds the other outcomes and vice versa. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

Anyways, as far as Bronny goes….I am 99% confident this is about the Jazz giving Bronny a workout, as they do with many prospects every year (from top prospects to overseas prospects) and the media running with it. Occam’s razor. They right a story about Bronny if he wipes his nose so if he gets any traction from any team the media will run with it.

 

[KqWIN]

The benefit of actually keeping the pick? Lmao dude you’re making no ****ing sense.

Your odds and expects outcome are better with the Clippers picks in your scenario. If that’s what you want, that’s what you want.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Your odds and expects outcome are better with the Clippers picks in your scenario. If that’s what you want, that’s what you want.

How do you figure that at all?

The difference between 3 and 4 in the lottery to get top-4 does not outweigh the % that 3 falls to 5-8 at all. Not even close.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Meh…I think this is the same as other protected picks. I don’t think top X has special value to the team that holds the other outcomes and vice versa. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

Anyways, as far as Bronny goes….I am 99% confident this is about the Jazz giving Bronny a workout, as they do with many prospects every year (from top prospects to overseas prospects) and the media running with it. Occam’s razor. They right a story about Bronny if he wipes his nose so if he gets any traction from any team the media will run with it.

Huh... do you think the value of an unprotected pick is the same as a protected pick? Because when you acquire the hedge it is unprotected and is absolutely without a doubt more valuable. I am fine disagreeing but this type of risk mitigation is a pretty basic part of life and business.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There is no downside to showing interest in Bronny. So whatevs... But I also wouldn't put it past Danny to exaggerate interest for some purpose. Whether its trying to get the pick protections eliminated or some other purpose.

Maybe they are generally interested but you don't want to telegraph that interest if so.