BTPreview - 2014 NBA Draft

[♪alt13]

#5 #23 #35 Utah Jazz

I had a long section prepared before my browser crashed.

Now I'll probably shorten the inner monologue a little bit.

The Jazz are nearing the end of their rebuild.

And they find themselves at a crucial point as they don't have their poster boy yet similarly to the Orlando Magic. The simple difference is that their rebuild is one year further advanced and it's highly unlikely that they're capable of getting another draftpick that's better than 9 next year.

The tough Western Conference will influence these numbers quite a bit.

So it's hit or rebuild from scratch.

Or as a small market front office like's to say. Riding the revenue stream.

This is the most unattractive option for every real basketball and Jazz fan and would make Jazzfanz the most toxic place in the internet.

Being drawn to a television whilst knowing that it's in your best interest to boycott the team for 5 years until everyone leaves to win and proper rebuilding can begin.

Lottery is about luck and the Jazz haven't had any of it during their rebuild.

And by not being lucky I don't talk about erroneous selections.

I'll assume in the following section that Wiggins and Parker are off the board.

Embiid's foot injury could let him slide depending on X-Rays, MRI and other medical records that must be handed to teams now until he receives a promise.

Exum is also highly unlikely as he's a good fit for Orlando. But there's an outside chance that some team at the top goes full Cleveland and picks some random guy based on a random statistical model.

If I look at the tier 2 players, I see players who have a lot of potential and in most drafts they are more likely to get drafted between 2 and 6, and not 5-10.

Julius Randle is the safe pick. He's shown his inside game exclusively last season. He was good at creating angles to ovecome his limited height and explosiveness.
Some people claim he's got an outside game but due to his limited ball skills and absence of a right hand, he can't trump defenders by being a lefty who can face up from the perimeter.

He's simply too predictable right now, which resulted in successful traps. His passing is below average as he embodies AAU fundamentals.

Another trouble is that it's rare for people to expand their handling significantly after leaving college. If he can't develop offensive flexibility and improve his defense from atrocious to "at least he's trying" he won't be a starter for long.

He'd be a stretch from a skillset perspective, his leadership, alpha mentality could serve the Jazz. How highly do you value intangibles?

Marcus Smart has intriguing intangibles as well, and his skillset lacks in essential areas.

Shooting, court vision and ball skills may limit his effectiveness in general as it makes him predictable. But in contrast to Randle it's safe to say that he's going to be a good defender at least.

I hope the Jazz aren't really interested in him, as he doesn't present a great upgrade over Burke and is unlikely to develop into a great franchise player.

His me first playstyle doesn't present to be a plus for me as it would limit a team concept.

Noah Vonleh strikes me as the guy who possesses the biggest upside. He's got a good shooting motion, and already proved he can make shots at a high clip.

He's a guy that has the possibility to become a prototype power forward. You combine his impressive physique with his ball skills and shooting and the result is a player that would be high on the Spurs radar.

The flipside with Vonleh is that he's spent a lot of time in the gym reportedly for a guy his age. This makes you wonder why he hasn't developed a more solid decision making but this might change once he spends more time with video coordinators and prepares for his games on a different level.
I just mention it as a possible concern.

He hasn't displayed leadership qualities in his only year at Indiana. He's been in foul trouble a lot due to lack of understanding when it comes to positioning.

Aaron Gordon's the guy that's very risky. He's got a lot of abilities that make him desirable.

But when it comes to his offensive skillset, you kind of wanna close your eyes.

Loose handle that isn't worth too much in halfcourt setting yet. Athleticism off the charts. Engaged defender.

Humble kid, good BBIQ and court vision.

The big questionmark is his scoring ability. If he can't develop a jump shot he could "Kidd-Gilchrist" to irrelevance.

He can cut to the basket, outjump and overpower guys at the college level. If he's a power forward in the pros, he'll have a tougher time doing that.
If he's a small foward, you need to compensate for his shooting inability in his first years.

His shooting technique isn't broken, his accuracy is alarmingly low. Is it his aim that lacks or is it just a question of practice?

Looking at all the options I think Embiid falling with his foot injury would be the most tantalizing prospect.

Exum dropping to 5 is the next best option to become a superstar with a humble attitude, team oriented mentality and leadership qualities.

And if I look at the guys I described previously, I think taking a risk on Vonleh or selecting Gordon are the risks I'd be most willing to take.

If those guys don't pan out at least we won't have to suffer through mediocrity, but instead see an attempt to convert all the guys into future assets and rebuild.

But in case they do and come close to their ceiling, then the Jazz could become contenders in the future.

With the later first round and early second round pick the Jazz should aim to get a complementary player.

If they roll with Smart or Exum, they could look to add a wing and a big.

Grant, Anderson or Robinson are possible wings to get drafted in that area.

The lack of quality power forwards will most likely prevent them from selecting a wing as Payne is unlikely to be available.

I don't think they consider Early this early in the draft and I doubt he'd become an upgrade over Marvin Williams.

The #35 is where I'd select Jokic in that scenario. You stash him and if he becomes special, you score big and forget about Kanter.

If the Jazz select Gordon, then they should aim to add more floor spacing with their latter picks. Moving up some spots for Payne could prove to be smart, as he could easily replace Williams streakiness at least. Also more development seems possible for him right now.

With Vonleh you look at Grant McDaniels and Robinson again at 23. At 35 Dinwiddie, who is expected to be ready by training camp and Micic are frontrunners.

Micic would provide a different style compared to Burke. If he's able to initiate the sets in a similar fashion as Calderon does it, then he'll probably outplay his projection by far and that could make Burke expendable very soon.


TL;DR

This is the last chance for the Jazz to add a promising franchise player quality talent
My selections with #5 would be Vonleh or Gordon
Embiid or Exum dropping would be even better
With 23 and 35 you look to round out your wing rotation and depending on if you go guard or combo forward with #5 you add the other position. Micic would be my fav 2nd PG(2nd, not backup)

Really BTP if we are near the end of the rebuild we are in some srs ****. New GM, New coach, all players on the table, tons of cap space, and future first rounders stashed. I'd say the rebuild is just getting started.

Jazz obvi try and trade up. If they stay at #5 I'd put money on Gordon. We mostly agree there. I also think that the #23 gets parlayed into a future one. I'm sure they would like to package it with the #35 to move up but I'm not sure how many teams would bite in this draft. Look for the future roster of the Jazz to begin to materialize around 2017.

 

[BTP]

Really BTP if we are near the end of the rebuild we are in some srs ****. New GM, New coach, all players on the table, tons of cap space, and future first rounders stashed. I'd say the rebuild is just getting started.

Jazz obvi try and trade up. If they stay at #5 I'd put money on Gordon. We mostly agree there. I also think that the #23 gets parlayed into a future one. I'm sure they would like to package it with the #35 to move up but I'm not sure how many teams would bite in this draft. Look for the future roster of the Jazz to begin to materialize around 2017.

I see your thinking, but that contains a lot of ifs.

And my experience with NBA teams is that this is not how it works out. Also name me a good trade that would help both teams with the #23. I don't like speculating about willingness to trade, because it requires another team that is open for business. Trying to do things doesn't mean something materializes where you don't end up being ripped off.

If I look at the Jazz roster, I see Burke(1992), Burks(1991), Favors(1991), Gobert(1992), Hayward(1990), Kanter(1992)

If you plan on being deep into the lottery for another couple years, you have a 2016 draftee, who turns 19 at that time. In 2016 your core is between 24 and 26 years old. Wait another 3 years until that dude develops, learns to win and you have your core in 2019 that's around 27 and 29 years old when you enter deeper playoff territory. Not only do you have multiple unrestricted free agents who might look for greener pastures in the meantime, you'd also have guys that don't fit your contention window.

Maybe you expect them to flip everyone from the current roster, but I doubt that happens and if it happens I doubt it returns equal value.

The easiest way is to develop the players you have, hope they want to be great and put in extra hours. Then they already parted ways with Ty Corbin and now you hope that Snyder can turn that team around.

Won't happen in a year. But I think they want to improve, and next year the draft pick they want is probably more like #9-#12, which would be an improvement from this year. Playoffs in sight for 2016.

But that's just my non utopic realistic view of how the NBA franchises make business. You don't have to agree Just felt like explaining how I see it, and why I see it this way.

 

[♪alt13]

I see your thinking, but that contains a lot of ifs.

And my experience with NBA teams is that this is not how it works out. Also name me a good trade that would help both teams with the #23. I don't like speculating about willingness to trade, because it requires another team that is open for business. Trying to do things doesn't mean something materializes where you don't end up being ripped off.

If I look at the Jazz roster, I see Burke(1992), Burks(1991), Favors(1991), Gobert(1992), Hayward(1990), Kanter(1992)

If you plan on being deep into the lottery for another couple years, you have a 2016 draftee, who turns 19 at that time. In 2016 your core is between 24 and 26 years old. Wait another 3 years until that dude develops, learns to win and you have your core in 2019 that's around 27 and 29 years old when you enter deeper playoff territory. Not only do you have multiple unrestricted free agents who might look for greener pastures in the meantime, you'd also have guys that don't fit your contention window.

Maybe you expect them to flip everyone from the current roster, but I doubt that happens and if it happens I doubt it returns equal value.

The easiest way is to develop the players you have, hope they want to be great and put in extra hours. Then they already parted ways with Ty Corbin and now you hope that Snyder can turn that team around.

Won't happen in a year. But I think they want to improve, and next year the draft pick they want is probably more like #9-#12, which would be an improvement from this year. Playoffs in sight for 2016.

But that's just my non utopic realistic view of how the NBA franchises make business. You don't have to agree Just felt like explaining how I see it, and why I see it this way.

Optimistically I look at the Jazz roster and I see a 6th man and role players. Playoffs clearly out of the realm of possibility barring some major changes. If we are lucky we can develop one to be the 3rd best player on a playoff team.

But hey that's just my non delusional take on our current roster.



Our number 1 and 2 have to come from the draft. Once we have those in place our ability to lure players will greatly increase. We hope we can get our #1 or #2 option this year. Assuming we do somehow land Parker(most likely via #5 + Favors) then the optimal time to get our next stud is in 2016 so that their contracts are staggered.

The #23 will do little good in helping us move up this year and we are awash in role players/guys to be developed. I would think the Jazz try and turn the #23 into a 2015-2017 first rounder so that we have a 15-25 pick to pair with our own late lotto.(kinda like we did last year to get Burke)

The GSW deal is a HUGE hint about the intentions of DL. He has made sure that he has extra draft day assets for every year between 2014 and 2017. I expect that he will be aggressive about acquiring top young talent rather than settle for the so called core 4,5, or however many guys we have become over enamored with.

 

[BTP]

Optimistically I look at the Jazz roster and I see a 6th man and role players. Playoffs clearly out of the realm of possibility barring some major changes. If we are lucky we can develop one to be the 3rd best player on a playoff team.

But hey that's just my non delusional take on our current roster.



Our number 1 and 2 have to come from the draft. Once we have those in place our ability to lure players will greatly increase. We hope we can get our #1 or #2 option this year. Assuming we do somehow land Parker(most likely via #5 + Favors) then the optimal time to get our next stud is in 2016 so that their contracts are staggered.

The #23 will do little good in helping us move up this year and we are awash in role players/guys to be developed. I would think the Jazz try and turn the #23 into a 2015-2017 first rounder so that we have a 15-25 pick to pair with our own late lotto.(kinda like we did last year to get Burke)

The GSW deal is a HUGE hint about the intentions of DL. He has made sure that he has extra draft day assets for every year between 2014 and 2017. I expect that he will be aggressive about acquiring top young talent rather than settle for the so called core 4,5, or however many guys we have become over enamored with.

This has nothing to do with delusional and I get the feeling you try to interpret my words because you don't agree with how I view the situation.

But this thing is a business. And you lose revenue when you empty your roster. You try to pimp your guys.

You tell Utahns that Burke can become the next Paul. Hayward can be the best white player in the league, think of a best case guy yourself. Favors can turn into Dwight Howard 2.0

Doesn't mean it's true. But this is a business strategy to create hype and hope around your team. And having these guys in place allows you to proceed. Doesn't mean you succeed.

That's why I stressed the need to make a homerun next week.

I don't really disagree with your very pessimistic outlook.
I just think a lot of guys underperformed and I'm willing to watch them next year before I write them off.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Just a tip, but the use of paragraphs would make your posts a lot more readable, BTP. Not every sentence needs to be a separate paragraph. Very hard on the eyes.

 

[BTP]

Just a tip, but the use of paragraphs would make your posts a lot more readable, BTP. Not every sentence needs to be a separate paragraph. Very hard on the eyes.

Alrite. Other people said it is impossible to read if you don't use it after every sentence. I guess it's the difference between smartphone/tablet and PC users.

Unfortunately you can't do text formatting like using half a line of space between every line to make a good compromise.

 

[BTP]

#20 #37 Toronto Raptors

My best guess is that Toronto will try to keep the team together. Getting multiple playoff appearances and making it out of the first round could help them improve their brand.
Also Toronto has spent a lot of time rebuilding in the last decade which supports the option to strengthen their brand and rebuild in a couple of years when their playoff contention window is over.

Paying market value for Kyle Lowry is key for them, as the's unrestricted and can pursue different options.
He could stay put in Toronto where he has enjoyed the biggest individual success in his career and try to duplicate it.
Lowry could opt to play in a bigger market as previously indicated by calling the Lakers suitors.
It was reported that Miami might be interested.

Other than Lowry they need to make up their mind if they want to keep Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson. I have no clue who else might be interested in signing them, but they were key reserves for Toronto last year. If they like them in the locker room I expect them to be offered new contracts.

Toronto still has the very bad contracts of Landry Fields($6.25M/1yr), Chuck Hayes($6M/1yr) and Novak($7.2M/2yrs) on the books. I don't think Ujiri will send assets away to get rid of these contracts. Toronto still has around $15M of capspace available once Salmons and Hansbrough are let go. So they could try to sign a major free agent.

The Raptors will look to improve with their pick. A look on their depth chart indicates that backcourt depth might be exactly what they need. The bad contracts of Fields and Novak are the only SF backups. They have none at SG right now, but they have played Vasquez next to Lowry the majority of the time when DeRozan needed rest.
I'm not sure that Terrence Ross has the potential to be a starter in the league, that's why I'd focus on small forward, as that's the deepest position in the draft and biggest need.

Since Valanciunas and Amir Johnson don't aren't exactly stretching the courts, he should bring some accuracy along. Toronto would certainly like it if TJ Warren dropped to 20.
He isn't really a long range shooter, but a successful mid range game creates trouble for standard defensive rotations as well.
James Young is a guy that is too similar to Terrence Ross. A lot of upside, defensive potential, yet it's unlikely they'll come close to their ceilings.
Rodney Hood would add more flexibility. A terrific shooter, good all around game, horrible defense though.
If Toronto feels they want to replace Patterson, Adreian Payne would be another stretch PF who could fill in for him.
DX currently projects Capela to be selected by Toronto, but I don't see how you could create enough playing time to develop him when he's only Valanciunas' backup.
Tyler Ennis could be a security for Lowry leaving. He could function as his backup and make Vasquez either expendable or move him to SG.

With their early 2nd rounder I guess it's either stash or rounding out the roster. If they go eith PG or Big with their first rounder, it's a wing they'll target.
I could see them trying to stash Damian Inglis, or bring in Joe Harris or Cleanthony Early. Early and Inglis might be selected by time they pick.
They apparently like KJ McDaniels a lot, but I think selecting him at 20 is a reach and he'll be gone at 37. So maybe they'll be active in moving up or down with one of their picks.


TL;DR

Toronto will aim to stay competitive longer with their current nucleus
Kyle Lowry is the key free agent -> MUST retain
At 20 look for them to bring in competition for Ross or select security in case Lowry leaves
Stash or trading up is possible at 37. They like McDaniels, so they could trade up or down with one of their picks

 

[Stifle Tower]

^^
Much improved, IMO. You probably have a point re: PC and Smartphone/Tablet users. I don't like to use the internet on a Smartphone.

Good take on Toronto. I don't know why, but I find myself kind of cheering for the Raptors. I'm sure AKMVP will like that!
Toronto would be in a decent position to trade up by combining their picks, much like Utah. Only problem is several teams have multiple picks and don't necessarily want more. With cap space, they could also possibly flip their picks into a nice veteran and give cap relief to another team.

 

[BTP]

#16 #19 Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are in a position where they can shop their picks. If they feel they'll improve by a trade both short and long term, they'll pull the trigger.
Until we hear LeBron's decision in the next days, Carmelo's free agency will be the focal point for the media.
And Melo and the Bulls has marriage potential.
The Bulls embody everything that Melo is bein criticized for and Melo can provide everything that prevented the Bulls from the NBA Finals before Derrick Rose got hurt.

There's plenty of possibilities to get Melo.
Sign and trade with New York. Melo's getting his max deal, is traded and New York receives assets and Carlos Boozer in return.
Before I get into the more special scenarios, a lot of people are calling the Bulls cheap for not pulling the amnesty on Boozer. While that might have been accurate in the past, right now if they want to stay above the cap with all exceptions available.

Dealing away 1st rounders to keep more talent is the best way to stay ready. This way they don't have to renounce bird rights or early bird rights to players.
I think the Bulls won't trade Gibson and Butler, unless it's a deal that they simply can't pass on, e.g. it nets them LeBron or Kevin Love.
With Melo it's more simple. He is an unrestricted free agent and the only leverage that New York has is controlling the bird rights.
So if New York overplays it's hand they'll call Philly or another asset collector. Think of Philly as the pawn shop of the NBA. You make them S&T Melo, take back Boozer and either two first rounders or one 1st and one 2nd round pick. Maybe you do something else to make the numbers match.

Then there's 3-way deal potential. New York can unload one of their bad contracts, they get one draft pick in return. The 3rd team absorbs at least one contract and receives draft picks.

The next guys they need to address are Augustin and Hinrich. Both have appeal to be kept. Hinrich has to accept a vet min, and I think he'll do. And Augustin will face a difficult decision here. Money elsewhere or success as Rose's backup/health insurance.

Their depth chart can look like this(I don't think that's the starting 5, but the finishing 5)
Rose/Augustin
Butler/Snell/Hinrich
Melo/Dunleavy
Gibson/Melo/yyy
Noah/Gibson/***

If they can't get active in deals, they have to take BPA and one big guy. Not striking in trades, would mean Mirotic joins their roster this summer. There wouldn't be real minutes to get, but they need to address rest during the regular season with Joakim Noah especially.

So at #16, I guess they'd be thrilled to have Gary Harris available. He'd be a little bit undersized, but there isn't really a single dangerous big two guard in the whole Eastern Conference. DeRozan is getting better, but you could let Rose defend off the ball most of the time without getting burned due to his size.
So I expect them to hope that he falls to them. They'd probably like Elfrid Payton a lot as both an insurance for Rose and a bigger point guard with a defensive mindset. Can defend 2 guards as well.

I doubt they're interested in freshmen LaVine or Young if they're available, as they don't have playing time for projects. Neither of them has developed enough defense to get real playing time in the next 2 years for them.

TJ Warren should get consideration if they don't add Melo. He would be their tertiary playmaker behind Rose and Noah.
He's shown he can play passing lanes and tries on defense. So he could get inserted here. He can play off the ball, and also find gaps in the defense with the ball, where he uses his supreme floater to hurt the defense. Basically a lot of things that Deng did, but on a rookie salary!

With the 19th pick they have various options available. They could go with Payne in case they can't bring Mirotic over.
Capela would be more of a project, but could be intriguing to lower the load for Noah in the future. Also defensive minded, which would make Thibs happy.
Jordan Adams is also a good defender, which is impressive when you consider his lack of athleticism. He's got a nice shot, which would fill a need. He would compete with Snell.


TL;DR

Biggest priority is trade market. Melo, LeBron or Love. Primarily Melo, who is very accessible.
Picks could be flipped in the process.
If they miss out in free agency they need to address shooting, playmaking and inside depth with their picks.
Harris, Payton, Warren, Capela and Adams should fit their needs very well and be around BPA at the draft slots.

 

[BTP]

#15 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are a miserable organisation right now. Horrible fan base, A lof of mediocre playoff runs that didn't get people from that area excited to attend games.
One of the bigger cities, but yet having problems to fill the arena.

The new Houston/San Antonio axis has begun to establish their doctrine in a way that probably won't attract fans.
Danny Ferry's free agency movements indicate an unwillingness to tank for a superstar talent and he's providing Budenholzer with Spurs-type players like Millsap, Carroll and Korver.
They play a team oriented concept that is based on ball movement and spacing.

As indicated previously I don't think that's a smart approach long term. Unless they can get a legit superstar Al Horford will leave in 2 years or bully his way out next summer.
I think the ceiling of the current group is a 5th seed when the rest of the conference is healthy. And that includes the gazillion tank squads in the East.

They have a lot of ball handlers on their team, and they lack quality and depth both on the wing and frontcourt.
I expect that to be their focal points.
The addition of unsigned free agent Lucas Nogueira might be all they need other than a healthy Al Horford. The other guys are on a good deal or should be extended like Mike Scott.

So finding the right wing prospect is what their draftpick will be used for:
The question is do they pick biggest upside, the most ready player, best defender, best shooter or what their criterias are.

If I'm in their position I'd try to pick up LaVine or Young for their upside, hope he'll develop better than projected and either rebuild around him or add free agents around Horford and him. But I doubt that that's their plan with the pick. They selected best upside last year and haven't had good results. They added veterans around them which limited the playing time of Schröder as much as his immature personality did.

Rodney Hood and TJ Warren would be the best immediate impact. But Hood would duplicate Korver too much and not provide them with flexibility to play him together with Carroll due to his defensive shortcomings.
TJ Warren doesn't score from the positions where Spurs wings score from. Also his BBIQ wouldn't fit their organisation.
Gary Harris in contrast would be a very good fit. A good team defender, passer and shooter who can also attack closeouts would fit their needs. Ready to contribute.

A wild card could be Jusuf Nurkic. A very talented Center from Serbia, who could be a good PnR finisher and Low Post scorer in the league. Legit size, didn't really take care of his weight as of yet, and has a lot of fundamental flaws that can be worked upon.
But he's very quick on his feet considering he's carrying 280lbs with him. Has a good touch, but didn't develop a spot up game yet. Tough guy.
Nikola Pekovic might be a worst case scenario for him. If Atlanta feels he's BPA and they have mixed feelings about the future of Horford and Millsap with their team, they should take a chance on him.

If they select Nurkic, they could use all their cap space and offer close to max for Hayward. But that would mean renouncing all their restricted free agents.

I think it's more likely they'll go with a wing in the draft and overpay restricted guys Scott and Mack a little to keep continuity in their reserve unit


TL;DR

They're in no mans land right now, don't seem willing to change that unless it's entering the East elite ranks by adding a free agent, unexpected internal improvement or scoring a steal via draft
Need to address wing rotation with depth Gary Harris could be their favorite. Warren and Hood make some sense as well.
If they think about their future, LaVine, Young and Nurkic should be on top of their list
Have up to $15M in cap space

 

[BTP]

#8 Sacramento Kings

First of all, the Kings do not like 2nd round draft picks. They've dealt away every single one until 2018, some even multiple times with different protections.
Or maybe I should have said did, as ownership, front office and coaching staff have changed last summer.

Their free agency decisions are Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas. Rudy Gay has found a team where he didn't make everyone else around him worse over a 30+ games stretch and made some shots. The Kings are strengthening their brand right now and simply want to attend playoffs before doing a real rebuild.
Rudy Gay has a rich player option and it's unclear if he'll exercise it or re structure it with a long term extension in Sacto. Either way, they're no players on the market for unrestricted free agents this summer, as they also have to decide if they want to pay Isaiah Thomas market value for his offensive heroics.

So Marcus Smart would make a lot of sense. He'd play next to Isaiah Thomas at times, could play the point and would put them in a better negotation position.
Noah Vonleh could improve their spacing, has tools to develop into a nice defensive player next to the lackluster DeMarcus Cousins.
Aaron Gordon could do similar stuff, but has a chance to ruin their spacing as well. If they wanna improve their franchise's reputation by improving, he's got to figure out how to hit the basket.

If they want to address their spacing, Doug McDermott would be instant impact, he could be a better version of Ryan Anderson. But 2 inside players who don't like defense isn't really appealing if you're about contention.
Nik Stauskas has more upside than McDermott, but would only make sense if they've given up on McLemore already.


TL;DR

Free agency decisions are more important, no capspace but need to retain Gay+Thomas
They can get whoever of the tier 2 talents + Embiid falls that far #leftover
McDermott and Stauskas could make sense, but interest should be limited.

 

[BTP]

#9 #24 Charlotte Hornets

Securing that pick on the last day of the season, they can add now a good piece to their team that reached the playoffs despite dealing with health issues over the season.

Their need is plain and simple. Shooting.
Coach Steve Clifford already brought their defense in the right region. Now they need to address their spacing to allow Jefferson to work in the low post.
The problem is that last season they only had 4 above average shooters. Josh McBob, Anthony Tolliver, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Gary Neal.

Neal is the only one of that group under contract next season. Kemba Walker had a horrible season, Henderson is 26 and his shooting stagnated, while his overall offensive efficiency collapsed. So it might be time to reload with a stretch PF or another wing.

Two very versatile and smart scorer with a phenomenal stroke are McBuckets and Stauskas.
Though McBucket's could leave people scratching their head. He's a combo forward and other than that his scoring is legit he's one of those combos you don't want to ever see defend either inside or on the perimeter. Al Jefferson doesn't care for defense too much and Bismarck Biyombo is entering the last year of his rookie deal, which may also be his last in the NBA.
Going with Stauskas would leave their backcourt rotation very flexible. He could play both wing spots depending on the matchup. And long term he'd be Henderson's replacement as a starter as Henderson isn't really offering a lot on both ends of the floor.

Another option could be Dario Saric. He could be their point forward and playmaker, if the team feels that the progress he's made last season with his 3 pointer is only the beginning. Very versatile player who would definately be intriguing. This could also signal the demise of both their 2012 and 2013 picks MKG and/or Cody Zeller, who have been disappointing so far. Kidd Gilchrist's shot is so broken and so far he hasn't made progress that it's fair to assume he'll either have to play in lineups where everyone else can shoot or move over to power forward as a role player to limit face up & stretch power forwards.

I think Zeller only being 1 year in is too early to judge him. He's been mostly disappointing but he'll get his chance to redeem himself, which is why I ultimately think they'll go with Stauskas. His skillset makes too much sense for them.
They also have ample cap space of $22M to spend on free agents. If they want instant impact they could try to move MKG and make a move for Luol Deng, who would provide similar defense but way better offense.
But it might be smarter to postpone a free agent hunt and reload the team with 5 new shooters on 1 year contracts or something like this.

Next summer they have to address Kemba Walker's rookie extension, who will probably get hard balled for his inconsistent performance the last years. Maybe a match situation in the Jeff Teague range is what it's going to be.
Al Jefferson will probably opt out and sign the last long term extension of his career and Gerald Henderson's player option will largely depend on his performance next year and the market for him that results out of it.

They have 1 major trump though. They picked up Haywood's amnestied contract and his 2015/2016 $10.5M number is nonguaranteed if waived before August of next summer. So they can give another team cap relief and become major players on the trade and free agent market then. Another year as a top10 defensive team and making the playoffs paired with players improving individually could put them in a situation where they can shake off the Bobcats stain.

With their #24 pick they should go totally BPA depending on who they take at 9.
Clint Capela would make a lot of sense. Insurance for Al Jefferson being lured away, defensive presence that's more compatible to the game of basketball compared with Biyombo.
Glenn Robinson is an upside pick especially when they want to part with MKG and Henderson long term.
Tyler Ennis would be the insurance for Kemba Walker being miraculously offered too much money elsewhere and bring similar skills to the table.
Nurkic, Young or Warren falling that far would be instant pickups.

If they don't go with Stauskas at 5, they could seek to improve their wing rotation with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who's similar to Stauskas and even a better defender and finisher around the rim. He would be instant impact.
Jordan Adams could also be an answer to their shooting woes with that pick.
Adreian Payne would be also a good selection, but will probably be off the board and it would be needed to trade up for him.
This would also be confusing when you draft a similar guy in Zeller last year and have negotiations with McRoberts this summer. But he'd fill their needs at PF the best.


TL;DR

This or next summer free agency players with non guaranteed Haywood contract
Need to address spacing with picks and free agents
Stauskas at 9 is the best fit, McBuckets or Saric could be as well
At 24 BPA on positions where playing time can be earned -> Capela, Ennis, Warren, Adams, Payne, Bogdanovic

 

[BTP]

#14 #18 #27 Phoenix Suns

The Suns were THE surprise team of not only last season, but probably the whole decade. Slotted to be the worst team in the West or the entire league, Phoenix missed the playoffs by 1 win, exceeding their projected win number by 25-40 depending on who you asked.

The reason why they were so successful could be attributed to the rise of Dragic and Bledsoe into borderline NBA stardom, but the truth is the team was as a coherent group as you can find lead by rookie sensation Jeff Hornacek!

Given their success and Bledsoe's successful meniscus removal, they'll try to exceed situations once again and muscle their way into the tough and deep Western Conference playoffs.
Right now they have only $23.6M salary committed for next season, but restricted free agent Bledsoe will receive a rich extension.
Stretch Four Channing Frye has a $6.8M player option and may or may not opt in(Both scenarios make sense, as he prolly won't get more annually, but could aim for more guaranteed years given his history of missed games combined with previous heart problems at age 31.
PJ Tucker is a restricted free agent as well, and bringing him back would strengthen their defense a lot, yet they could go another way and try to use a draft pick on a young wing prospect.

Equipped with 3 first rounder, it's safe to say that they're open for business as 3 incoming rookies may be too much for them to replicate last year's success. If there's a deal to trade one of this year's pick in another one in a future draft they'll do it.

Their current projected depth chart looks like this:

Bledsoe/Dragic
Dragic/Green/Goodwin
Tucker/Green
Frye/Markieff
Plumlee/Marcus/Len

They invested a 5th pick last year into Alex Len's bad ankles. He never reached a point where he was comfortable last season but they'll expect him to live up to his potential and be a major contributor next year and move up the depth chart. He and Goodwin are their only players under 23. So adding some young blood may be what they need to maximize their assets and not only aim for short term success.

The biggest upside picks at 14 that may or may not be available are LaVine, Young, Nurkic and Saric in no particular order.
Looking at instant impact there's scenarios where McDermott falls to them or they'll roll with the wings Warren and Hood.

TJ Warren would be a natural fit and compete for playing time at SF. He needs to reconstruct his long range shot, but he's lethal in transition, can put the ball on the deck in the half court, has a knack for finding a way to the rim, where he's got the most efficient floater in the NCAA. Also a good team defender, who can read passing lanes, all of which would make him a fit in Hornacek's transition oriented system.
Rodney Hood could contribute to their spacing. The End.
Doug McDermott has many qualities that Markieff Morris has, but I think he'll be better in the end. Listing Markieff as a Center in my depth chart is only because they like to run a small ball lineup in Phoenix with the Morris twins playing inside. Markieff handles the ball surprisingly much in these situations.
If you expect McDermott to be a viable player on the wing, you'll have to wait how he matches up with all these good and athletic guys. Prognosis is that he's better suited playing power forward.

Looking at the upside pick, I think James Young would make a lot of sense. Versatile wing, good shooter. Probably available at 18 as well.
Jusuf Nurkic would be the pick if they're down on Len staying healthy through extended periods. He's very turnover and foul prone right now, but he's doing so many right things and putting him into a conditioning program should help him a lot.
Saric is a long shot at 14, but LaVine might slip that far down. He'd be very interesting to pass up. His athleticism is also a very good fit for their style of play. Biggest upside of everyone available. Also if you're having trouble seeing Green and Goodwin in their jersey long term, he'd help them create a very strong guard rotation.

Out of this group. Warren, Young, Nurkic and Hood could also be available at 18. I don't think they'll trade this pick away if they are facilitating trades, as such a high value pick would have to net them good players in return, which I don't see happening.
Other guys they could take a look on at 18 are Capela for the same reasons as Nurkic, Payne as the stretch 4 to replace Frye.

At the end of the first round, with their 27th pick, they should take someone with huge question marks such as Jerami Grant and simply hope he can fix his shooting. If he does they'll have a defensive minded wing with value. They could also give him exposure right away as they have so much shooting already available on the roster, especially on the big positions.
Jarnell Stokes would be a crafty PF with a back to the basket game who can crash the board. He has some hit or miss potential in the NBA due to his size disadvantage, but at 27 the reward could outweigh the risk.
But it's really tough to predict what route they're going to take given their success and the appeal it might have for them to bring everyone back and not mess with the chemistry.


TL;DR

Most improved and surprising team with a lot of depth
Have options to work in free agency after addressing Bledsoe, Frye and Tucker
New additions via draft, free agency will force subsequent trades, NBA roster limit is 15
Needs are Wing > Center > PF. Need to add quality at expense of quantity

 

[BTP]

#13 Minnesota Timberwolves

For T-Wolves fans, executives and everyone else who wants Kevin Love on their roster, free agency is a fair amount more interesting compared to the draft.
The way Minnesota signed players last year, they have already committed $66M in guaranteed salary this season, which means they have no chance to add players without sending others away.
Their roster was mostly healthy last season, yet they didn't manage to come close to playoff participation. Their defense sucked as expected when you look at the guys they have.
Offensively they couldn't mask individual shortcomings in a way that would have allowed them to win games that way.

So their options are very easy:
-Trade Love away and get the most assets in return
-Keep Love, hope that your team's internal improvement helps them reach a good playoff seed like Portland experienced this year and convince Love to stay with his team

As the array of speculated, rumoured and leaked trade talks has been incredibly wide, I think it's simply not worth speculating about needs when I analyze their options with the #13 pick.

I have to look at BPA at 13, who's not playing Rubio's position.
From the concensus top10 guys I see one who might drop that low. I think McDermott would be that guy. He's a natural scorer. He could replace a portion of Love's scoring, if he is traded. Not a lot of upside, but instant production.

Going with best upside would be Nurkic, Saric or LaVine. Saric officially was announced today by Istanbul, so he'd be a stash player. I think the T-Wolves would want to develop their pick right away.

Nurkic's upside is very similar to Pekovic. But Pekovic is old and if they decide to rebuild with Love leaving, he'd learn from Pekovic and make him expendable after a good season when Pekovic's value is still high.

LaVine would be a prayer. If he can learn to use his physical tools in a way that they translate to on court production he'll probably end up being better than the position at which he was drafted.
His immaturity and on court struggles create reluctance to draft him too high. He wasn't useful in his lone season at UCLA, when his shot wasn't falling.
The flashes he shows to become a good shooter is probably the best part about him. If he can balance shooting with his unreal athleticism he's going to be one of the toughest players to guard at a position where you can make a case for Afflalo being top3 at currently.
He'd need playing time just like Nurkic. He needs to be coached and nurtured constantly by capable coaches specialized on player development. So selecting him would mean opening up 15-20 shooting guard minutes in year one in the second quarter and the end of the 3rd/start of 4th just to give him a chance to constantly improve and learn from mistakes.
He's the guy I'd pick if I'm Minnesota and he's available. With a 90% chance of having to rebuild he'd be the first young talent to be developed before tanking efforts flood in higher picks in future years.

Another route would be strengthening their roster and send a semi competitive team. That would mean no mans lands picks in the future. But it could mean also that they have unexpected roster improvement in case they try to persuade Love to stay over next season by finally making the playoffs and maybe winning a series.

I think TJ Warren could be such a sleeper. Minnesota right now has no wing who's good at attacking the basket. Martin's game starts on the perimeter and he uses his ability to knock down 3s to make defenses overcommit on him and then he attacks the basket.
Warren would be a natural slasher, with a good mid range game. A capable team defender as well, his offensive potential could Make the team a lot more dangerous in stretches where they have shooting on other positions.
His ability to attack in transition would already exceed Brewer's strengths offensively. Defensively he isn't as good, but the extra offense he could provide would outweigh that.
Warren's development last year was huge as he was asked to be the go to guy for NC State. If he can improve even further, he could be a real steal in the teens. To improve further he'd have to remodel his broken jump shot to balance his slashing and midrange game.


TL;DR

Love is the most important aspect for their future - whether that means getting back assets or him staying
Wolves should go BPA in the draft. If BPA means upside, sleeper potential or instant impact depends on their plans
Should make up mind about love before draft and either go with LaVine or Warren

 

[Getting Traded]

#13 Minnesota Timberwolves

For T-Wolves fans, executives and everyone else who wants Kevin Love on their roster, free agency is a fair amount more interesting compared to the draft.
The way Minnesota signed players last year, they have already committed $66M in guaranteed salary this season, which means they have no chance to add players without sending others away.
Their roster was mostly healthy last season, yet they didn't manage to come close to playoff participation. Their defense sucked as expected when you look at the guys they have.
Offensively they couldn't mask individual shortcomings in a way that would have allowed them to win games that way.

So their options are very easy:
-Trade Love away and get the most assets in return
-Keep Love, hope that your team's internal improvement helps them reach a good playoff seed like Portland experienced this year and convince Love to stay with his team

As the array of speculated, rumoured and leaked trade talks has been incredibly wide, I think it's simply not worth speculating about needs when I analyze their options with the #13 pick.

I have to look at BPA at 13, who's not playing Rubio's position.
From the concensus top10 guys I see one who might drop that low. I think McDermott would be that guy. He's a natural scorer. He could replace a portion of Love's scoring, if he is traded. Not a lot of upside, but instant production.

Going with best upside would be Nurkic, Saric or LaVine. Saric officially was announced today by Istanbul, so he'd be a stash player. I think the T-Wolves would want to develop their pick right away.

Nurkic's upside is very similar to Pekovic. But Pekovic is old and if they decide to rebuild with Love leaving, he'd learn from Pekovic and make him expendable after a good season when Pekovic's value is still high.

LaVine would be a prayer. If he can learn to use his physical tools in a way that they translate to on court production he'll probably end up being better than the position at which he was drafted.
His immaturity and on court struggles create reluctance to draft him too high. He wasn't useful in his lone season at UCLA, when his shot wasn't falling.
The flashes he shows to become a good shooter is probably the best part about him. If he can balance shooting with his unreal athleticism he's going to be one of the toughest players to guard at a position where you can make a case for Afflalo being top3 at currently.
He'd need playing time just like Nurkic. He needs to be coached and nurtured constantly by capable coaches specialized on player development. So selecting him would mean opening up 15-20 shooting guard minutes in year one in the second quarter and the end of the 3rd/start of 4th just to give him a chance to constantly improve and learn from mistakes.
He's the guy I'd pick if I'm Minnesota and he's available. With a 90% chance of having to rebuild he'd be the first young talent to be developed before tanking efforts flood in higher picks in future years.

Another route would be strengthening their roster and send a semi competitive team. That would mean no mans lands picks in the future. But it could mean also that they have unexpected roster improvement in case they try to persuade Love to stay over next season by finally making the playoffs and maybe winning a series.

I think TJ Warren could be such a sleeper. Minnesota right now has no wing who's good at attacking the basket. Martin's game starts on the perimeter and he uses his ability to knock down 3s to make defenses overcommit on him and then he attacks the basket.
Warren would be a natural slasher, with a good mid range game. A capable team defender as well, his offensive potential could Make the team a lot more dangerous in stretches where they have shooting on other positions.
His ability to attack in transition would already exceed Brewer's strengths offensively. Defensively he isn't as good, but the extra offense he could provide would outweigh that.
Warren's development last year was huge as he was asked to be the go to guy for NC State. If he can improve even further, he could be a real steal in the teens. To improve further he'd have to remodel his broken jump shot to balance his slashing and midrange game.


TL;DR

Love is the most important aspect for their future - whether that means getting back assets or him staying
Wolves should go BPA in the draft. If BPA means upside, sleeper potential or instant impact depends on their plans
Should make up mind about love before draft and either go with LaVine or Warren

Screw Love -- he's overrated. Another Dwight Howard-type prima donna. I'd boot his *** as fast as I could get some good assets for him, and build the team going forward, and stop waiting on him.

 

[BTP]

#11 Denver Nuggets

Leading up to the draft the Denver Nuggets find themselves at a crossroad.
To Compete or not to compete.
Their salary commitments prevent the organisation from bringing in new blood via free agency. They have a fairly high draft pick at hands because their players couldn't stay healthy last season.
McGee and Gallinari were a no show, Ty Lawson missed 20 games with injuries, Wilson Chandler as well and electric midget Nate Robinson tore his ACL.
If you take all of that into account their 36 wins might be viewed as a success.
But does a season w/o injuries mean that team adds 15 wins to land safely in the postseason in the West? I don't know and one of their options is not finding out!

Rebuild! Hooray, everyone in the West wants to compete? We'll tank and come back with better talent in a couple years. Ty Lawson should return high value picks, Kenneth Faried's value is very high after a PER 20 season, where he blossomed in a high elevation arena in Denver which helped to elevate his transition ability.
Faried's also just 24 years old and is entering the last year of his rookie contract.
While McGee and Gallo don't have trade value until they return healthy and productive, the Nuggets could explore trade options for sharp shooting veteran Randy Foye and Russian Center Mozgov, who are on pretty good contracts and provide good contract value. Negative contracts of Wilson Chandler who had a bad year and JJ Hickson could be paired.
But that's truly optional as trading Lawson, Faried, Mozgov and Foye would ensure that they could compete with the Sixers until McGee and Gallo are back in shape and start getting shopped.

The other option is building an 8th seed behemoth, keeping the core alive and selling hope to their fanbase with the imaginary internal improvement that's about to come once everyone stays healthy. If they go that way they have a $10M trade exception available until July 10 for helping the Warriors obtain Iggy in a 3way trade with Utah.
In this case they could add best upside as they would do in the case that they're instantly dismanteling the team, or instant impact.

The instant impact options would be McDermott and Warren, who could compete for minutes instantly because of injuries/lack of depth on their position.

The best upside guys available could include Stauskas in case he drops a little, LaVine and Nurkic.
Drafting Nurkic would mean instant disposal of McGee and/or Mozgov as Nurkic is very inexperienced and needs to develop every game until he has picked up his 6th foul(midway through the 2nd quarter).
LaVine could compete for minutes as SG, where they only have the veteran Foye and young Evan Fournier out of France who had a disappointing season.

Another option would be Elfrid Payton. He'd help their perimeter defense tremendously from day one as he could play next to Ty Lawson and defend both 1s and 2s.
He's a rapidly developing prospect with some serious flaws, but if he is talented enough to overcome them, he will due to his unmatched relentless work ethic.
He'd be both ready to play major minutes and provide significant upside that could be useful both in a pseudo contention and instant/future rebuilding scenario.


TL;DR

Nuggets have incentives to compete for low playoff seeds or opt to rebuild through the draft
Players have had health issues in the past, especially last season
Drafting best upside would be beneficial in both scenarios
Payton is a guy, who could instantly see more than 20 minutes and his upside would be beneficial for a future rebuild as well

 

[BTP]

Notes:

Going through most of the things that I've written in the past couple weeks, I find myself favoring certain players, personalities and skillsets in general.
I value especially shooting very highly apparently. This is a logical process IMO as championship caliber teams usually are one of the top teams in spacing the floor.
Guys that I didn't mention as frequently or not at all despite being projected by various mocks to fall In some teams range are often victim to me looking at the roster and what general direction a team is going to. I often find myself looking at rosters and tinker with lineups to see if there's strong lineups where less skilled players could fit in without ruining the whole spacing.
Players falling in that category are Grant, McDaniels, Clarkson, Stokes and Payton. It's not that I don't like these players.

I just couldn't get myself into dreaming that they become skilled offensive contributors in their areas of weaknesses. And then I look at the teams drafting in their range and try to find one that already has a lot of shooting, and could benefit from their defense and slashing/postup while compensating for the fact that these guys can't shoot. And I had to see that good shooting is more rare in the NBA than it should be and when you have good playmakers you can't really add enough shooting.
That's probably the reason why I like Vonleh's potential better than Gordon's. I like Gordon's game as well, but you have another guy who can shoot and has smooth mechanics, then I see skills that are already there, that don't have to be developed and I 'just' have to find ways to make these skills translate through strategic schemes and individual development.

With Gordon that doesn't matter, as every team other than Cleveland in the top7 sucks hard on paper and he'll get plenty of opportunities to develop his game and the franchise can monitor his shooting and compensate it by aiming for sharp shooter in later drafts.

But when you're outside the lottery, you're landing on potential playoff teams mostly and these teams can give you only some 2nd quarter and garbage time minutes when you don't show quick development, assimilation qualities and production on the court. And for a player like Jerami Grant it would be horribly to land in the middle of a Grizz, Jazz, Heat, Thunder and especially Hornets roster. Teams that draft in the middle of the 20s and either need a lot of shooting to make their offense efficient or can't afford to be patient waiting for a project to develop some game.
And that's why I don't like these low skilled players on teams that have no playing time and patience to develop them. When you're on such a roster you've a high chance to bust.
A team like Atlanta that has so much shooting and need to get more defense and attacking the rim would be a good fit for some of these players, so would the Mavs who don't like the draft in general.
I think DX's projection for ATL of tabbing TJ Warren is fair. He'd address a need for them by attacking the rim, running in transition and being capable in team defense schemes.
So if a team like ATL drafts in the mid 20s, Grant would make sense for them when you consider ceiling and the amount of production you risk by passing on guys like Robinson III, Early and others.


Embiid's health issue(s)

Nothing has been more discussed other than LeBron's and Melo's free agency these days. Even Love trade chatter is just noise compared to Lil'Olajuwon's navicular bone.
I agree with Cleveland that it's too risky now to pick him at #1 even though he's upside wise a top10 center in the history of the game.
I'd rank his upside together with Duncan, O'Neal, Kareem, Wilt, Moses, the Dream, Oden, Howard and others that I've prolly never heard about or simply forgot.
I'M talking upside here, not probability of reaching that. I'll get **** for putting Oden and Howard in there anyways. But imagine a healthy Oden, whose body was simply unfair with the strength and athleticism he had paired with a good skillset at an early age. And then imagine Dwight Howard with an offensive game that isn't 99% putbacks and lobs out of the PnR and who could hit free throws.
And I just go by the skilllevel Embiid's already at and the pace of improvement from highschool to the draft. He continues at the rate his game was evolving prior to his injuries and he'd be an AllStar in year 3. He still can become that but when your #2 through 4 are Parker, Wiggins and Exum, you don't go full Portland.
You simply take the safer alternatives and remember that it's a marathon, not a sprint.

If I'm Cleveland I'm selecting Parker #1 or take the Orlando deal that's been in the media for a couple of days. And I think that's why they wanna see Exum. They want to be comfortable with Exum at 4. They are with Embiid, but wanna be safe that Exum would be as well.
No matter what happens you trade Dion Waiters. Because the only scenario where Waiters + Irving works is if Waiters is the 6th man and the two are sharing the court only half the game. And Waiters isn't the guy who likes being 6th man and not always finishing games when your defense needs to be solid.
And in that case Exum's an alternative. His defensive potential is high, the way he works laterally, he's at least as good a playmaker as Irving is. So that would make sense as well, when you get Afflalo and #10 as well.
But if you select #1 it's Parker and you figure out later if Tristan can defend 3s or Jabari can defend 3s or if you need to trade both Bennett and Tristan to make place for Jabari as the starting 4.

Assuming Parker goes #1 anyways no matter if it's Cleveland or Orlando picking at 1, I expect Wiggins to go #2. Simply because you've got a long road ahead in Milwaukee and you aren't going to be good anytime soon. So select the guy with the highest upside/risk ratio. That's Wiggins. Philly will go either Embiid or Exum at 3 and the other guy lands in Orlando at 4 or the Cavs select at 4.

I don't think too much is changing after 4. So many smokescreens and every organisation has multiple guys who would fit in as players and it's a question of whose personality, work ethic they like/believe/support the most. A lot of baiting teams into panic deals, which won't happen, because the teams from 5 to 9 are solid management wise.

Elfrid Payton has risen on draft boards and Saric dropped after announcing that he's going to play 2 years in Turkey. I think Saric's floor is Phoenix's 2nd pick at 18.

Also Bogdanovic being connected to the Spurs is not really shocking to me. I didn't really know too much about him before I wrote. And when I saw him I was like: Ginobili light, he looks Spurs. Can shoot, can dribble, can pass, can defend.

Napier being connected to the Heat these days is also sth I wrote about. Made a lot of sense if you expect LeBron to be back. Not the best decision maker, but surpreme shooter and LeBron handles anyways. Also can attack the basket and finish in a variety of moves. Winning history.

One last advice for tonight's lottery. If you don't want spoilers unfollow Wojnarowski on twitter. And never look up Chad Ford. Dude's got a history of being trolled by "sources" on draft night. Unless you wanna know what's not happening and have a little bit of fun. Broussard has even worse sources though. So that might be more entertaining.