BTPreview - 2014 NBA Draft

[BTP]

#4 #12 Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are equipped with 2 lottery picks and head towards the end of their rebuilding process that was initiated when Dwight Howard was traded away.

The team got a new young front office head in Rob Hennigan who was fairly successful at drafting in recent years.

Beginning their rebuild in 2012 when they selected Andrew Nicholson with #19 and later that summer they obtained Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Arron Afflalo and 5 more first round picks in the Dwight Howard trade.

Nicholson has been disappointing, but Harkless has suggested role player potential so far and Afflalo just had a breakout year, he is one of the best 2 way shooting guards. Vucevic has developed in a double double machine but they don't seem to be sold on anyone of this group, as neither has received unreasonable playing time and opportunities as sign of a commitment.

In 2013's crapshoot draft they selected Oladipo with the #2 pick and it's clear they value his versatility a lot and are tinkering with him in different roles. His defensive potential is also off the charts.

This year they find themselves in a position to add someone with real star potential at #4. They also finally managed to get rid of most of their veterans and remaining veterans only have an expiring or partially guaranteed contract and Afflalo even has significant trade value due to his favorable contract.

In another trade they ripped off the Bucks and found ways to make combo forward Tobias Harris a valuable player on offense. His defensive limitations will probably determine that he's a power forward long term but he's another tradeable or usable asset.

At #4 they find themselves in a position to take one of the four prospects to have a superstar ceiling. However it's the one that the other 3 teams in front of them passed on.

Dante Exum was reported to be most likely available piece at #4 and has expressed interest in joining the Magic franchise due to his connection to Oladipo.

Exum would make a lot of sense in a backcourt with Vic. Victor is already a nasty defender, and he's finding out how much ballskills he's got. Exum is known to be a good creator, slasher and finisher at the rim and went to the foul line fairly often in previous tournaments. His defense and shooting are in progress with his shooting coming along nicely, but defense is a question mark.

That's why he would make sense next to Oladipo who could spend more energy defensively and playing more off the ball on offense with Exum being given more opportunity to rest as an off ball defender.

Orlando would be happy to select Exum, be active on the trade market with their non guaranteed trade chips(Maxiell, Nelson, Price) and assets that might not fit their championship window(Afflalo and eventually Vucevic, who turns 24 late this year and would probably be around 30 when they aim for contention)

So there's at least one more year where they'll compete for the #1 pick.

The other options all make sense as well, as their potential is just as high.

It would just make current assets expandable. If they select Wiggins, Harkless would be traded sooner than later to not jeopardize his value.

If Embiid falls in their lap, he could either start at PF as he's shown how mobile he is and long term Vucevic would be traded away to make him the primary rim protector.

In case Parker is up for grab, he'd be too similar to Tobias Harris to co-exist, thus he'd be expandable.

From a positional standpoint Noah Vonleh might make sense as well. His two way potential could move Tobias Harris to become the 6th man and fill both forward positions as a substitute to both Harkless and Vonleh. But that would mean they view Vonleh's potential as immense as it would mean passing on Exum most likely.

I think Exum is the safe bet, he makes tons of sense for them.

With the #12 pick maximum upside is the way to go once again. I read a rumour that they may look into trading it with the Bulls being mentioned as a potential trade partner.

Potential targets at that slot may be Tyler Ennis in case they don't pick Exum.
He's a floor general in the making paired with questionable defense and provides little scoring.

TJ Warren is a combo forward at this point. He's got huge scoring instincts but it's unclear how that will translate as his strengths are in areas being considered inefficient by most metrics in general. He outperforms the average player in these areas by quite a large margin and leaves you puzzling. If he can build a long range shot during his rookie contract, he could become a reliable scoring option in the high teens at the end of his rookie contract.

Dario Saric's upside and versatility, heart and playmaking potential would be too good to pass up if he slides to them.
He could be really good for them and with Rob Hennigan's experience in the Spurs front office he might see his real potential to become integral part of a winning program with his unselfishness.

Nik Stauskas offensive arsenal seems to be too redundant to Oladipo in my eyes. I don't think they could function as starting guards for a good team.
And Stauskas as a SF would cause the team defensive problems when they play against the most dominating small forwards.

Another tentalizing name would be the project of Zach LaVine. He's a real possibility and the upside would outweigh the risk at this point for them IMO.
If he doesn't develop and outplay his draft position little harm's done. But if he does he would be a real steal.
Given how unfinished the Magic's roster is, that's my best bet for who they might target.

Other high upside picks include James Young, but he would be a reach and nothing but his age works in favor of him at this point.

As a stash pick, Porzingis might be an option, but he could be obtained by trading down as well most likely.


TL;DR

Magic are a team in the early stages filled with assets, who might not be part of the finished product
Exum seems to be a perfect fit
If one of the "top3" is available it would cause immediate trades
Vonleh has an outside chance as his upside could make sense in their eyes
With the 12th Zach LaVine's upside might be the gamble
Saric would be the first choice if he slides
Tyler Ennis is possible in case they get one of the concensus top3

 

[BTP]

#25 Houston Rockets

This is one of the least sure picks.

The Rockets roster has multiple smaller holes that need to be addressed, and at the same time they're glancing at Carmelo Anthony.

Speaking of Melo, I can see them approaching him by going a sign and trade route and no sign and trade route at the same time.

It's unlikely the partner would be New York to preserve his bird rights in the process, because I doubt that New York really wants the #25 and 28 year old Omer Asik's cap friendly contract as assets in return.

Melo's $23M starting salary would count half in such a trade and New York would aim to unload JR Smith, Ray Felton or Bargnani as well.

Something possible would be Melo($11.5M for trade purposes) + Bargnani's $11.5M expiring + Ray Felton $3.8M in exchange for Asik, Lin($8.4M on the cap, $15M in salary each), #25($1M cap hold), Donatas Motiejunas($1.5M), Omri Casspi's teamoption($1M), Robert Covington's non guaranteed($.9M) and Troy Daniels non guaranteed($1.3M) and a future first rounder.

Using JR Smith would make things easier, but the whole scenario is unlikely as it would put immense pressure on Houston to find desperate ringless veterans.

It's more likely that they send their economics guy and lay out in front of Melo how the Texas state tax would affect his net income as they did with Howard.
They'd then look for a sign and trade partner on a 4 yr max w/o bird rights 4.5$ raises.

This could be done in multiple fashions which I'm not gonna elaborate here.

Looking at draft targets in case they stick with their pick, holes in their roster are one or two wing defender and backup point guard, as J-Lin doesn't look like he's in Houston long term after his poison pill expires next summer.

3 and D wings in the mid twenties range are basically non existent. Good long range shooting wings projected between 12 and 25 like PJ Hairston, Rodney Hood and James Young aren't good at defense at this point of their career and may never reach that point.

Defensive minded guys like Jerami Grant and KJ McDaniels may never get there shooting wise. Glenn Robinson III would be another name to watch. He had a very weird college career and has probably the best upside to develop a reliable long range bomb.

Spencer Dinwiddie would probably be the best fit for their wing rotation if it wasn't for his ACL rupture. But there's the option that they like him, trade back or snag him up with #42.

As for PG, the aforementioned Shabazz Napier could provide instant impact and would contribute to their spacing with his long range accuracy.

Jarnell Stokes could be their pick if they feel they need another more phyiscal PF than T Jones and want to part with Motiejunas.

But it's really tough to predict because their pursuit of Melo could drastically change the landscape over there.

Also Asik is most likely to be moved no matter what and this would most likely return multiple players.


TL;DR

Melo is the main guy they want after this draft, obtainable in multiple scenarios
Asik probably is moved over the summer
They need spacing and defense on their wing positions(Robinson III, McDaniels, Dinwiddie)
Another PG with range could be useful as well -> Napier

 

[BTP]

#22 Memphis Grizzlies

The most important decision for the Grizzlies lies in the hand of Zach Randolph and his agent.
Will he execute his player option to postpone free agency or seek a long term extension this year already.

A lot of indicators and experience say it's the early extension.

Their free agency flexibility will depend on the number they negotiate. And then Memphis must decide whether they front or back load the contract which hinges on how they view their chances to land free agents.

Marc Gasol is a free agent next year and Mike Conley Jr. the year after that. So there is pressure to improve their roster immediately to become successful and not motivate their core players to only dream about success and consequently pursuing it in other cities.

If everything stays static - Zach not opting out, Memphis picking up the team option on Koufos and Ed Davis extension starting at $4.4M(which is unlikely) then they're close to the projected luxury tax threshold.

Their first round draft pick can either net them a good rotation player, a stash player, a project or they can use it to get rid of the corpse that goes by the name Tayshaun Prince.

Tayshaun is owed $7.7M next year and I think it's unlikely they can afford to become a tax team.

Now they'll probably let the market determine Ed Davis value and match. They have both MLE variants available as well.

If Randolph stays in his contract, they can't use the MLE without sending away Tayshaun.

If he negotiates a new contract or leaves it's possible they can afford paying Tayshaun AND use their MLE.

So there's trade potential in town...

As to who they could target with their #22 pick, it's pretty easy.

A wing with a pretty shooting stroke or a backup point guard with shooting capability. Nick Calathes had a mixed their as backup and Beno Udrih's vet min contract is expiring.

GRIII, Rodney Hood, PJ Hairston would be traditional wings.

Napier and Ennis would be point guard who either have elite shooting stroke or upside to develop it.

If they feel they want to let go Ed Davis or Koufos and strengthen their inside rotation, they could go with Kyle Anderson's playmaking and improving shooting or the prototype stretch forward Payne.

If they find a young prospect like James Young dropping to them they could take him for the future.
He's a guy who should get playing time in the regular season due to his ability to knock down threes and down the stretch could be a nice start if they're either forced to rebuild after next year.

Capela would qualify as a project big.


TL;DR

Free agency is crucial, especially Randolph's situation must be resolved.
They are at crossroads, need to add players to advance further in the playoffs.
If they can't they may be empty handed next year(M.Gasol gone)
If they stick with the pick, wing shooting is a need, as is playmaking.
Possible picks include Hood, Hairston, Napier or Payne.

 

[Dr. Jones]

#2
^THIS thread

 

[BTP]

#21 Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have the best 2 man combo in the league and the worst supporting cast.

So the Thunder need depth. Every position other than ballhandlers.

They need internal improvement, even though that sounds unlikely with their best "young" prospects are Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb.
Jackson's 24 and the Thunder will negotiate over an extension with him this summer. Lamb is 22 and he's got 2 rookie years left anyways. So they'll try to develop him even if it looks dire right now.

Oklahoma is a team that's low on BBIQ thus they have implemented a very easy system that relies on creators. Right now they have 3.
Durant, Westbrook, Jackson. They're going PnR, iso and try to create for their teammates.

They need veterans with high BBIQ or a miracle that hands them another playmaker somehow.

Because by now it's very clear that these 3 can't do all the running and clashing with the other team's bigs to create bunnies for their teammates for 82 games and 4 more 7 game series. Plus national team duty, plus preseason.

They're on the books for $67.6M, which means about $9M room until they scratch next year's luxury tax.
Constant whine out of their front office that says their revenue is too little to justify going that close to the threshold is ********.
With the new economic situation in the NBA, revenue rising, a rich TV contract on the horizon the team's value is skyrocketing faster than Prokhorov can pay luxury tax.

If they're about winning, they have work to do:

-Amnesty Perkins

-Send Durant to recruit desperate vets

-Use your trade exception until 7/11 ($6.5M as a result from the Kevin Martin trade)

-Use the (M)MLE

-Target a fourth playmaker or significantly better roleplayers

The portion of it that can be done with a #21 pick in this year's draft is limited.

We're talking playmaker?

TJ Warren or Kyle Anderson might be the answer!

We want to replace Sefolosha?

KJ McDaniels, Jordan Adams or PJ Hairston are alternatives.

Add another big?

Capela is a Center who could be useful in 2 years next to Steven Adams when Perkins retires.

Adreian Payne could provide flexibility for the big rotation, which would allow Ibaka to play some Center in stretch rotations.

Also Tyler Ennis would make sense if they want to take the ball out of Westbrook's hands more and let him run more secondary screen plays to put him in a position where he's less likely to run into a wall with his head first. But I doubt that.

James Young would be another project pick, who could provide the spacing. But his lack of defense at this point would hurt OKC's playoff ambitions a lot.


TL;DR

OKC is a cheap organisation
Free Agency will be more important than the draft
They need shooting and playmaking:
Warren, Anderson, McDaniels, Adams, Hairston, Payne are possible targets

 

[BTP]

#5 #23 #35 Utah Jazz

I had a long section prepared before my browser crashed.

Now I'll probably shorten the inner monologue a little bit.

The Jazz are nearing the end of their rebuild.

And they find themselves at a crucial point as they don't have their poster boy yet similarly to the Orlando Magic. The simple difference is that their rebuild is one year further advanced and it's highly unlikely that they're capable of getting another draftpick that's better than 9 next year.

The tough Western Conference will influence these numbers quite a bit.

So it's hit or rebuild from scratch.

Or as a small market front office like's to say. Riding the revenue stream.

This is the most unattractive option for every real basketball and Jazz fan and would make Jazzfanz the most toxic place in the internet.

Being drawn to a television whilst knowing that it's in your best interest to boycott the team for 5 years until everyone leaves to win and proper rebuilding can begin.

Lottery is about luck and the Jazz haven't had any of it during their rebuild.

And by not being lucky I don't talk about erroneous selections.

I'll assume in the following section that Wiggins and Parker are off the board.

Embiid's foot injury could let him slide depending on X-Rays, MRI and other medical records that must be handed to teams now until he receives a promise.

Exum is also highly unlikely as he's a good fit for Orlando. But there's an outside chance that some team at the top goes full Cleveland and picks some random guy based on a random statistical model.

If I look at the tier 2 players, I see players who have a lot of potential and in most drafts they are more likely to get drafted between 2 and 6, and not 5-10.

Julius Randle is the safe pick. He's shown his inside game exclusively last season. He was good at creating angles to ovecome his limited height and explosiveness.
Some people claim he's got an outside game but due to his limited ball skills and absence of a right hand, he can't trump defenders by being a lefty who can face up from the perimeter.

He's simply too predictable right now, which resulted in successful traps. His passing is below average as he embodies AAU fundamentals.

Another trouble is that it's rare for people to expand their handling significantly after leaving college. If he can't develop offensive flexibility and improve his defense from atrocious to "at least he's trying" he won't be a starter for long.

He'd be a stretch from a skillset perspective, his leadership, alpha mentality could serve the Jazz. How highly do you value intangibles?

Marcus Smart has intriguing intangibles as well, and his skillset lacks in essential areas.

Shooting, court vision and ball skills may limit his effectiveness in general as it makes him predictable. But in contrast to Randle it's safe to say that he's going to be a good defender at least.

I hope the Jazz aren't really interested in him, as he doesn't present a great upgrade over Burke and is unlikely to develop into a great franchise player.

His me first playstyle doesn't present to be a plus for me as it would limit a team concept.

Noah Vonleh strikes me as the guy who possesses the biggest upside. He's got a good shooting motion, and already proved he can make shots at a high clip.

He's a guy that has the possibility to become a prototype power forward. You combine his impressive physique with his ball skills and shooting and the result is a player that would be high on the Spurs radar.

The flipside with Vonleh is that he's spent a lot of time in the gym reportedly for a guy his age. This makes you wonder why he hasn't developed a more solid decision making but this might change once he spends more time with video coordinators and prepares for his games on a different level.
I just mention it as a possible concern.

He hasn't displayed leadership qualities in his only year at Indiana. He's been in foul trouble a lot due to lack of understanding when it comes to positioning.

Aaron Gordon's the guy that's very risky. He's got a lot of abilities that make him desirable.

But when it comes to his offensive skillset, you kind of wanna close your eyes.

Loose handle that isn't worth too much in halfcourt setting yet. Athleticism off the charts. Engaged defender.

Humble kid, good BBIQ and court vision.

The big questionmark is his scoring ability. If he can't develop a jump shot he could "Kidd-Gilchrist" to irrelevance.

He can cut to the basket, outjump and overpower guys at the college level. If he's a power forward in the pros, he'll have a tougher time doing that.
If he's a small foward, you need to compensate for his shooting inability in his first years.

His shooting technique isn't broken, his accuracy is alarmingly low. Is it his aim that lacks or is it just a question of practice?

Looking at all the options I think Embiid falling with his foot injury would be the most tantalizing prospect.

Exum dropping to 5 is the next best option to become a superstar with a humble attitude, team oriented mentality and leadership qualities.

And if I look at the guys I described previously, I think taking a risk on Vonleh or selecting Gordon are the risks I'd be most willing to take.

If those guys don't pan out at least we won't have to suffer through mediocrity, but instead see an attempt to convert all the guys into future assets and rebuild.

But in case they do and come close to their ceiling, then the Jazz could become contenders in the future.

With the later first round and early second round pick the Jazz should aim to get a complementary player.

If they roll with Smart or Exum, they could look to add a wing and a big.

Grant, Anderson or Robinson are possible wings to get drafted in that area.

The lack of quality power forwards will most likely prevent them from selecting a wing as Payne is unlikely to be available.

I don't think they consider Early this early in the draft and I doubt he'd become an upgrade over Marvin Williams.

The #35 is where I'd select Jokic in that scenario. You stash him and if he becomes special, you score big and forget about Kanter.

If the Jazz select Gordon, then they should aim to add more floor spacing with their latter picks. Moving up some spots for Payne could prove to be smart, as he could easily replace Williams streakiness at least. Also more development seems possible for him right now.

With Vonleh you look at Grant McDaniels and Robinson again at 23. At 35 Dinwiddie, who is expected to be ready by training camp and Micic are frontrunners.

Micic would provide a different style compared to Burke. If he's able to initiate the sets in a similar fashion as Calderon does it, then he'll probably outplay his projection by far and that could make Burke expendable very soon.


TL;DR

This is the last chance for the Jazz to add a promising franchise player quality talent
My selections with #5 would be Vonleh or Gordon
Embiid or Exum dropping would be even better
With 23 and 35 you look to round out your wing rotation and depending on if you go guard or combo forward with #5 you add the other position. Micic would be my fav 2nd PG(2nd, not backup)

 

[BTP]

#6 #17 Boston Celtics

Looking at Boston's roster, they've got a weird roster of guys when you consider that they basically waived the towel just last summer.

Danny Ainge backs Rondo as his franchise guy all the time but you never know if he's simply trying to boost his market value. Next season is a contract year, so this is basically his last chance to trade him.

If he really wants to build a team around a 28 year old coming off an ACL surgery who looked handicapped ever since.

Most of their young players aren't really that young as their age is between 22 and 24. Utilizing their pick to go with a huge upside super young stud wouldn't really fit their timeline.

Unless it's their strat to slowly deconstruct the roster and pick up as many assets in the process as they can.

If that's their rebuilding strat then we'll see them at least a couple more times in the high lottery again.

If he tries to return to contention ASAP, then he'll need to utilize their $15M in capspace if they decline Bogans team option as expected or pair that non guaranteed contract with their trade exception they obtained last summer from the Nets to return a high value impact player.

I don't see franchise talent on their roster and I'd be really shocked if any of the guys would develop into one.

So exhausting their assets to strengthen their roster seems unrealistic.

So retooling it is probably the better choice long term, even if it means more losing.

Olynyk is 23, Sully is 22 and the restricted free agent Bradley will turn 24 later this year.

Everyone else is basically old and overpaid and in two cases they don't even expire after this season. Jeff Green and Gerald Wallace. So they're basically untradable.

If they want to trade and score a restricted free agent this summer, they might be in a better position. But I don't see anyone not matching their restricted guys unless it's some serious overpay that would limit them going forward.

So with their #6 they should really aim to get really young players, who might be 2nd or 3rd options next to higher draft picks that they use in the upcoming drafts.

Aaron Gordon would fit that. He's not going to add wins for a team anytime soon with his limitations on offense at this point.

If Embiid drops due to his injury, I can see them taking a chance on him as well.

Vonleh is similar to Gordon. He's super young, has two way player potential. But his offense right now is more developed, yet not polished.

He needs to add to his defense to fully utilize his body but they the risk would be justified. With Vonleh's character you have to assume that he'll at least try to become a capable defender and learn.

Smart would be too old if they try to add more high draft picks in the next years. If they play him in a backcourt with Rondo, that would either mean they don't plan to match Avery Bradley's offer or it would really limit their ability to showcase all 3 of them on both guard spots to receive good offers for Bradley and Rondo.

All 3 of them are also undersized to defend the bigger and skilled 2 guards like Harden.

Randle would strengthen their rebounding a lot as Olynyk and Sully like to play away from the basket.
But this trio wouldn't be a real option long term, as none of them has neither the mindset nor the body to defend the rim.

I'd bet they'll take either Gordon or Vonleh, depending on who falls to them. Embiid would be the wildcard with a severe injury.

With their #17, it's BPA. They need talent, preferably young guys.

If LaVine is available, he's gone now. No reason to pass on his athleticism and upside. And if he busts, it's only a #17.

James Young could be an option as well. His shooting could be interesting for them. He's a project just like LaVine would be.

If they prefer more a more developed wing with less upside, Jordan Adams might be an option.

International guys they could give a deeper look are Nurkic's back to the basket game or Clint Capela's defensive upside.


TL;DR

Boston has the option to retool via restricted free agency/trades with young veterans to rebuild around Rondo
They can also do a hard rebuild and slowly trade all their valuable players for future assets.
With #6 whoever is left between Gordon and Vonleh
#19 is BPA and as young as possible. LaVine, Young, Adams, Capela, Nurkic

 

[BTP]

#7 Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers got themselves in a precarious situation when they lost multiple gambles.

And no I'm not talking Dwight Howard.

A tiny, yet magnificent detail I just discovered a few moments ago is that the Lakers took on a draft debt when they traded Steve Nash.

They owe a widely unrestricted first rounder to Phoenix. It's their 2015 one with a top5 protection in 2015, a top3 protected through 2017 and it becomes unprotected in 2018.

When you assume a semi productive coming in, the Lakers missing out on all free agents due to their lack of financial flexbility, it leaves them in a position to set the market price for most the restricted guys.

Monroe, Hayward, Bradley will be high on their list. Bledsoe probably won't be as he'll want to get a 5 yr extension.

So they can offer these guys a lot of money and they won't be unhappy if their former teams won't match. Because they're suddenly in LA, and in 2 years even Kobe is in a wheelchair.

If they recruited the 76ers D-League Allstars to play next to Kobe and the #7 in this year's draft, they might be able to secure the worst record and work around next year's pick protection. But they'd need to win after that, because you simply don't hand Phoenix a #4 pick while having your revenue and fanbase watching games at home or not at all.

I think it's more likely to improve right away, add via restricted free agency, sign min deals like Nick Young did to enamor GMs to overpay them by playing decent in the city of angels.

So to tank or not to tank?

I focus on not tanking, because tanking is too lackluster to write about.

Monroe will be their first target, he'll sign an offer sheet as soon as it's clear that neither LeBron nor Melo are interested to come to LA.

That may be July 1st, or July 4th.

In case the Pistons match, Hayward is the next target.

If the Jazz match they're attacking Avery Bradley, Chandler Parsons and Ed Davis.

Free agency will still play a big role as they have holes to fill.

They might go for a lot of underdogs or pray that guys like Blatche and Humphries could give them solid production for little pay and be on their best behavior at the same time.

Veteran free agents that might be attractive are Deng and Lowry. Both have stated they want to compete, but I'll believe that once they turn down a rich offer.

With their first rounder I think Marcus Smart would be a terrific fit. He's ready to play and shoulder a lot of responsibility. He's tough and they could add via free agency in next years if he exceeds expectations.

Julius Randle is similar. He can bang the boards, will get to the line after grabbing a rebound on the offensive end. He could work from the post a little and try to mix in his face up game.

If they want instant maximum impact in LA, they'll have to decide if they like Smart's defense more or Randle's youth and potential versatility.

Gordon and Vonleh wouldn't be key contributors from day 1. They could contribute, but in a lesser role, more like trying to carry the bench and getting to know all the starters in the league in smaller stints.

Can Bryant really shoulder the load after his injuries?

Nash is only there anyways to cash in on his last check. Don't count on him.

If Embiid falls all the way to LA, they pick him and sign the Philly D-League Allstars.


TL;DR

Lakers owe 2015 first rounder to Phoenix(top5 protected, top3 afterwards) -> Can they really afford to tank?
Attack free agency, especially restricted guys to snag them away or set their value
Most likely with their draft pick are instant impact guys like Smart or Randle

 

[♪alt13]

#5 #23 #35 Utah Jazz

I had a long section prepared before my browser crashed.

Now I'll probably shorten the inner monologue a little bit.

The Jazz are nearing the end of their rebuild.

And they find themselves at a crucial point as they don't have their poster boy yet similarly to the Orlando Magic. The simple difference is that their rebuild is one year further advanced and it's highly unlikely that they're capable of getting another draftpick that's better than 9 next year.

The tough Western Conference will influence these numbers quite a bit.

So it's hit or rebuild from scratch.

Or as a small market front office like's to say. Riding the revenue stream.

This is the most unattractive option for every real basketball and Jazz fan and would make Jazzfanz the most toxic place in the internet.

Being drawn to a television whilst knowing that it's in your best interest to boycott the team for 5 years until everyone leaves to win and proper rebuilding can begin.

Lottery is about luck and the Jazz haven't had any of it during their rebuild.

And by not being lucky I don't talk about erroneous selections.

I'll assume in the following section that Wiggins and Parker are off the board.

Embiid's foot injury could let him slide depending on X-Rays, MRI and other medical records that must be handed to teams now until he receives a promise.

Exum is also highly unlikely as he's a good fit for Orlando. But there's an outside chance that some team at the top goes full Cleveland and picks some random guy based on a random statistical model.

If I look at the tier 2 players, I see players who have a lot of potential and in most drafts they are more likely to get drafted between 2 and 6, and not 5-10.

Julius Randle is the safe pick. He's shown his inside game exclusively last season. He was good at creating angles to ovecome his limited height and explosiveness.
Some people claim he's got an outside game but due to his limited ball skills and absence of a right hand, he can't trump defenders by being a lefty who can face up from the perimeter.

He's simply too predictable right now, which resulted in successful traps. His passing is below average as he embodies AAU fundamentals.

Another trouble is that it's rare for people to expand their handling significantly after leaving college. If he can't develop offensive flexibility and improve his defense from atrocious to "at least he's trying" he won't be a starter for long.

He'd be a stretch from a skillset perspective, his leadership, alpha mentality could serve the Jazz. How highly do you value intangibles?

Marcus Smart has intriguing intangibles as well, and his skillset lacks in essential areas.

Shooting, court vision and ball skills may limit his effectiveness in general as it makes him predictable. But in contrast to Randle it's safe to say that he's going to be a good defender at least.

I hope the Jazz aren't really interested in him, as he doesn't present a great upgrade over Burke and is unlikely to develop into a great franchise player.

His me first playstyle doesn't present to be a plus for me as it would limit a team concept.

Noah Vonleh strikes me as the guy who possesses the biggest upside. He's got a good shooting motion, and already proved he can make shots at a high clip.

He's a guy that has the possibility to become a prototype power forward. You combine his impressive physique with his ball skills and shooting and the result is a player that would be high on the Spurs radar.

The flipside with Vonleh is that he's spent a lot of time in the gym reportedly for a guy his age. This makes you wonder why he hasn't developed a more solid decision making but this might change once he spends more time with video coordinators and prepares for his games on a different level.
I just mention it as a possible concern.

He hasn't displayed leadership qualities in his only year at Indiana. He's been in foul trouble a lot due to lack of understanding when it comes to positioning.

Aaron Gordon's the guy that's very risky. He's got a lot of abilities that make him desirable.

But when it comes to his offensive skillset, you kind of wanna close your eyes.

Loose handle that isn't worth too much in halfcourt setting yet. Athleticism off the charts. Engaged defender.

Humble kid, good BBIQ and court vision.

The big questionmark is his scoring ability. If he can't develop a jump shot he could "Kidd-Gilchrist" to irrelevance.

He can cut to the basket, outjump and overpower guys at the college level. If he's a power forward in the pros, he'll have a tougher time doing that.
If he's a small foward, you need to compensate for his shooting inability in his first years.

His shooting technique isn't broken, his accuracy is alarmingly low. Is it his aim that lacks or is it just a question of practice?

Looking at all the options I think Embiid falling with his foot injury would be the most tantalizing prospect.

Exum dropping to 5 is the next best option to become a superstar with a humble attitude, team oriented mentality and leadership qualities.

And if I look at the guys I described previously, I think taking a risk on Vonleh or selecting Gordon are the risks I'd be most willing to take.

If those guys don't pan out at least we won't have to suffer through mediocrity, but instead see an attempt to convert all the guys into future assets and rebuild.

But in case they do and come close to their ceiling, then the Jazz could become contenders in the future.

With the later first round and early second round pick the Jazz should aim to get a complementary player.

If they roll with Smart or Exum, they could look to add a wing and a big.

Grant, Anderson or Robinson are possible wings to get drafted in that area.

The lack of quality power forwards will most likely prevent them from selecting a wing as Payne is unlikely to be available.

I don't think they consider Early this early in the draft and I doubt he'd become an upgrade over Marvin Williams.

The #35 is where I'd select Jokic in that scenario. You stash him and if he becomes special, you score big and forget about Kanter.

If the Jazz select Gordon, then they should aim to add more floor spacing with their latter picks. Moving up some spots for Payne could prove to be smart, as he could easily replace Williams streakiness at least. Also more development seems possible for him right now.

With Vonleh you look at Grant McDaniels and Robinson again at 23. At 35 Dinwiddie, who is expected to be ready by training camp and Micic are frontrunners.

Micic would provide a different style compared to Burke. If he's able to initiate the sets in a similar fashion as Calderon does it, then he'll probably outplay his projection by far and that could make Burke expendable very soon.


TL;DR

This is the last chance for the Jazz to add a promising franchise player quality talent
My selections with #5 would be Vonleh or Gordon
Embiid or Exum dropping would be even better
With 23 and 35 you look to round out your wing rotation and depending on if you go guard or combo forward with #5 you add the other position. Micic would be my fav 2nd PG(2nd, not backup)

Really BTP if we are near the end of the rebuild we are in some srs ****. New GM, New coach, all players on the table, tons of cap space, and future first rounders stashed. I'd say the rebuild is just getting started.

Jazz obvi try and trade up. If they stay at #5 I'd put money on Gordon. We mostly agree there. I also think that the #23 gets parlayed into a future one. I'm sure they would like to package it with the #35 to move up but I'm not sure how many teams would bite in this draft. Look for the future roster of the Jazz to begin to materialize around 2017.

 

[BTP]

Really BTP if we are near the end of the rebuild we are in some srs ****. New GM, New coach, all players on the table, tons of cap space, and future first rounders stashed. I'd say the rebuild is just getting started.

Jazz obvi try and trade up. If they stay at #5 I'd put money on Gordon. We mostly agree there. I also think that the #23 gets parlayed into a future one. I'm sure they would like to package it with the #35 to move up but I'm not sure how many teams would bite in this draft. Look for the future roster of the Jazz to begin to materialize around 2017.

I see your thinking, but that contains a lot of ifs.

And my experience with NBA teams is that this is not how it works out. Also name me a good trade that would help both teams with the #23. I don't like speculating about willingness to trade, because it requires another team that is open for business. Trying to do things doesn't mean something materializes where you don't end up being ripped off.

If I look at the Jazz roster, I see Burke(1992), Burks(1991), Favors(1991), Gobert(1992), Hayward(1990), Kanter(1992)

If you plan on being deep into the lottery for another couple years, you have a 2016 draftee, who turns 19 at that time. In 2016 your core is between 24 and 26 years old. Wait another 3 years until that dude develops, learns to win and you have your core in 2019 that's around 27 and 29 years old when you enter deeper playoff territory. Not only do you have multiple unrestricted free agents who might look for greener pastures in the meantime, you'd also have guys that don't fit your contention window.

Maybe you expect them to flip everyone from the current roster, but I doubt that happens and if it happens I doubt it returns equal value.

The easiest way is to develop the players you have, hope they want to be great and put in extra hours. Then they already parted ways with Ty Corbin and now you hope that Snyder can turn that team around.

Won't happen in a year. But I think they want to improve, and next year the draft pick they want is probably more like #9-#12, which would be an improvement from this year. Playoffs in sight for 2016.

But that's just my non utopic realistic view of how the NBA franchises make business. You don't have to agree Just felt like explaining how I see it, and why I see it this way.

 

[♪alt13]

I see your thinking, but that contains a lot of ifs.

And my experience with NBA teams is that this is not how it works out. Also name me a good trade that would help both teams with the #23. I don't like speculating about willingness to trade, because it requires another team that is open for business. Trying to do things doesn't mean something materializes where you don't end up being ripped off.

If I look at the Jazz roster, I see Burke(1992), Burks(1991), Favors(1991), Gobert(1992), Hayward(1990), Kanter(1992)

If you plan on being deep into the lottery for another couple years, you have a 2016 draftee, who turns 19 at that time. In 2016 your core is between 24 and 26 years old. Wait another 3 years until that dude develops, learns to win and you have your core in 2019 that's around 27 and 29 years old when you enter deeper playoff territory. Not only do you have multiple unrestricted free agents who might look for greener pastures in the meantime, you'd also have guys that don't fit your contention window.

Maybe you expect them to flip everyone from the current roster, but I doubt that happens and if it happens I doubt it returns equal value.

The easiest way is to develop the players you have, hope they want to be great and put in extra hours. Then they already parted ways with Ty Corbin and now you hope that Snyder can turn that team around.

Won't happen in a year. But I think they want to improve, and next year the draft pick they want is probably more like #9-#12, which would be an improvement from this year. Playoffs in sight for 2016.

But that's just my non utopic realistic view of how the NBA franchises make business. You don't have to agree Just felt like explaining how I see it, and why I see it this way.

Optimistically I look at the Jazz roster and I see a 6th man and role players. Playoffs clearly out of the realm of possibility barring some major changes. If we are lucky we can develop one to be the 3rd best player on a playoff team.

But hey that's just my non delusional take on our current roster.



Our number 1 and 2 have to come from the draft. Once we have those in place our ability to lure players will greatly increase. We hope we can get our #1 or #2 option this year. Assuming we do somehow land Parker(most likely via #5 + Favors) then the optimal time to get our next stud is in 2016 so that their contracts are staggered.

The #23 will do little good in helping us move up this year and we are awash in role players/guys to be developed. I would think the Jazz try and turn the #23 into a 2015-2017 first rounder so that we have a 15-25 pick to pair with our own late lotto.(kinda like we did last year to get Burke)

The GSW deal is a HUGE hint about the intentions of DL. He has made sure that he has extra draft day assets for every year between 2014 and 2017. I expect that he will be aggressive about acquiring top young talent rather than settle for the so called core 4,5, or however many guys we have become over enamored with.

 

[BTP]

Optimistically I look at the Jazz roster and I see a 6th man and role players. Playoffs clearly out of the realm of possibility barring some major changes. If we are lucky we can develop one to be the 3rd best player on a playoff team.

But hey that's just my non delusional take on our current roster.



Our number 1 and 2 have to come from the draft. Once we have those in place our ability to lure players will greatly increase. We hope we can get our #1 or #2 option this year. Assuming we do somehow land Parker(most likely via #5 + Favors) then the optimal time to get our next stud is in 2016 so that their contracts are staggered.

The #23 will do little good in helping us move up this year and we are awash in role players/guys to be developed. I would think the Jazz try and turn the #23 into a 2015-2017 first rounder so that we have a 15-25 pick to pair with our own late lotto.(kinda like we did last year to get Burke)

The GSW deal is a HUGE hint about the intentions of DL. He has made sure that he has extra draft day assets for every year between 2014 and 2017. I expect that he will be aggressive about acquiring top young talent rather than settle for the so called core 4,5, or however many guys we have become over enamored with.

This has nothing to do with delusional and I get the feeling you try to interpret my words because you don't agree with how I view the situation.

But this thing is a business. And you lose revenue when you empty your roster. You try to pimp your guys.

You tell Utahns that Burke can become the next Paul. Hayward can be the best white player in the league, think of a best case guy yourself. Favors can turn into Dwight Howard 2.0

Doesn't mean it's true. But this is a business strategy to create hype and hope around your team. And having these guys in place allows you to proceed. Doesn't mean you succeed.

That's why I stressed the need to make a homerun next week.

I don't really disagree with your very pessimistic outlook.
I just think a lot of guys underperformed and I'm willing to watch them next year before I write them off.