There are problems on the horizon. Sports, as a whole, are going to shrink in importance as the United States becomes less culturally unified. There will be a point where a large section of people would prefer to watch people play Fortnite than watch a basketball game. I think we have reached the absolute high point on what these television contracts are going to pay, especially if the focus and talent gravitates to three or four teams. The NBA and NFL are likely in a bubble.
You see articles where people think that revenue growth will continue on a exponential curve. It will not. It can not. I think that the NBA figures that making the league about personalities rather than teams will help forestall that inevitability. That there will always be a Michael Jordan who will transcend basketball. They will even change or overlook the rules to make sure that happens (James Harden. . .cough, cough. . .) or do things like put Klay in over Gobert into the all-star game. Ultimately what you start to do is alienate the people that live and breathe basketball chasing new, less-informed bandwagon fans. You are assuming that the true fan base will always be OK with that, you will be wrong. Orlando basketball fans, who were always pretty good, will stop coming and stop bringing their kids, and you will only get a full arena when Lebron James plays. Nobody is going to pay to televise those games either. That is what happens when you have one Harlem Globetrotters and 29 Washington Generals.
The biggest canary in the coal mine here is the public becoming resistant to building new stadium for these teams. If I owned a professional team and wasn't really, really invested in that team, I'd sell right now at what could very well be peak valuation. It looks like plenty of owners are doing that.
