I've done some catch up on all these potential lottery prospects.
Players that I think will be gone no matter what once the Jazz pick:
Towns, Russell, Okafor, Mudiay, Winslow, WCS, Hezonja.
Guys that potentially fall to us in order of my preference:
1) Porzingis.
He's the predraft flavor of the month right now, but I don't really buy that. All the footage has been examined before as his team hasn't played in months. I don't see how predraft worksouts move the needle as he had freedom to do so many things in Spain. The athleticism part came short maybe, but the ability to fully utilize athleticism in 1-0 workouts shouldn't sway your opinion. There's risks. He doesn't move all that well on the perimeter and half the PFs are perimeter players nowadays. He needs to outproduce 4s or gain enough strength to play down low on defense. That's a risk.
I think he'll be gone latest at 7, as Denver appears to start a rebuilding project and his potential is too intriguing for them. They can give him all the time he needs and if he can develop an isolation faceup/postup game like Dirk, he'll be really good one day. Not saying he won't, neither that he will...
I'd take the risk in a nanosecond if he drops to 12.
2) Myles Turner
Too much potential to pass up. A lot of things aren't really working in his favor right now, but I'd again be willing to take the risk that he slowly "grows" into his body. I think his growth spurt was even bigger than Anthony Davis's. But one does not simply be Anthony Davis. His 2 way potential is too good. Worst case he's becoming Spencer Hawes with defense. I'd be fine with that.
And closer to his ceiling there's a more aggressive version of Serge Ibaka that wants to be unleashed.
His shot is smooth, I don't see no problem that he can't become one of the best shooting bigs.
I really disliked what I saw of him one year ago, but I think he's developed a lot.
3) Devin Booker
Worst case he's going to develop into Kyle Korver at a younger age. I'll take that. His shot is so pure. I don't really see the Klay Thompson comparison other than that both can shoot. Klay's a better athlete at this point. Not saying Devin can't become that, but his frame is limited, his speed is limited and even if he looks slightly overweight now, I don't know if he can become a reliable secondary attacker.
I'll take his shooting, BBIQ, lockerroom influence, and defensive effort though.
4a) Frank the Tank
Overdiscussed. I like the shooting, I like his smarts. I like his ballhandling, he has room to let his room grow once he works "full time" on certain abilities. He's so good at recognizing angles, if he can get better at creating them, he'll really turn heads. He's versatile offensively, provides room for backcourt players, you can run so many different complex things with him. I don't think his defensive limitations will be an issue as I think he can both "indirectly" outperform his defender if you look at how much his presence will increase his teammates percentages.
YOu can pair him with either Gobert or Favors. I like it.
4b) Stanley Johnson, yip I would have a terrible time deciding between him and Frank.
I'm a little bit scared about certain parts of his game. His finishing ability at most. A player built like that shouldn't struggle to finish 1v1 that much through contact against smaller and lighter players. If you're playing with a lot of weight, then you should be able to carry/compensate for that like LeBron. Otherwise trim down and if he trims down, I don't know if he's more than RHJ with a jumpshot.
And I don't like his jumpshot too much right now. His release is very low and slow. With how little lift he's adding, I think a lot of defender can sink off him in the weakside corner and run him off the line.
Having said that, I like how competitive he is. I'm not sure he like basketball so much, but winning and being a focal point of winning. I don't know how he'll adapt to a diminished role in the NBA. Right now he takes possessions serious and that makes me forgive him his "overconfident" decision making.
Having bashed him on some attributes, if he can improve on these and remodel his shot, I don't see why he can't become a Jimmy Butler type player in 4 years? I just think some stuff that I don't know much about and thus have to rely on numbers, makes it seem that very few prospects have managed to overcome these obstacles.
6) Lyles
He's really good. Other than length he doesn't bring much of the table, but the things he brings, he utilizes 100%. I think he's smart enough to become an adequate defender on the perimeter and I don't see why he can't extend his range in time. But his best case scenario is below the one of all the guys mentioned before. He's less risky to bust or have his confidence shattered(Turner seems primed for that). He would have been a prototype Georgetown big speaking in cliches. Skinny Greg Monroe with more range is something I'd say is his ceiling.
7a) Kevon Looney
I want to see how he moves if he develops his body. 12% body fat are normal for someone who has a overfunctional metabolism and does two 6 miles runs a week. For someone who practices daily, that shouldn't exist.
In college everybody complained about his lack of skill and hops, but his shot is pretty and will be effective. So I want to see how he moves being in a good condition. He probably won't be an elite finisher or driver, but if over time his frame fills out, he can easily become a good low post threat. Boris Diaw is a reasonable best case scenario.
7b) Bobby Portis
Big time motor, very good self awareness. Successful shooter. Likes playing basketball. Takes pride in defense. Somehow reminds me of Kenneth Faried with shooting.
9) Oubre
Don't like him. His decision making during the season was ridiculous. Kansas was one of the few teams I watched live a couple times as their sunday games were often suitable for my timezone...Turned most of them off real quick again.
Didn't JVG say lately 'Dumb getts you beat'? Poster child for that. Tremendous body, but all the areas of the game where he'd benefit from it, he's undeveloped. Not 'under', straight up 'un'. I don't think he'll show good learning curves, but I can't see someone with such a low skill level at that age, and such bad instincts can suddenly bloom. I'd be surprised if he becomes good.
10) Cam Payne
Brandon Jennings with better ballhandling and fundamentals. Not especially high on him. Requires too much freedom, can win and lose games on his own. Despite good vision I don't think he'll find as many recipients as in college. His weaknesses are too glaring, they take so much effort and time to correct. NBA defenses will feast on that.