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The only guys I see as being primary 1A type players are Fears or Queen (within our range). Haven't made my mind up on Yang yet but he might have that potential as well.
Following Potential 2025 Draftees
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
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I want Tre but I dont expect him to ever become #1 on a championship team caliber guy. I guess its possible, but I think his ceiling is a low end All-Star (so great 2nd option guy on a great team).
His defense is so far away and he isnt a 3 level scorer (his rim numbers are bad... both in getting there and finishing). If we project that both of those two develop "over the limit" then we may as well start projecting that anyone can become #1 option quality.
HadAnEffectHere
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Miles Byrd is basically a clone of Derrick White if he learns how to shoot.
His jumpshot looks very good and he's very confident in it and he shoots well from the line.
And then he just misses badly.
But outside of the jumpshot, he has literally everything you would want. The passing, the length, the athleticism, the confidence, the BBIQ, some ball handling. This guy is a potential top 30 player if he can shoot 40% from three.
... I don't know what the odds are that he can shoot that well from three.
His jumpshot looks very good and he's very confident in it and he shoots well from the line.
And then he just misses badly.
But outside of the jumpshot, he has literally everything you would want. The passing, the length, the athleticism, the confidence, the BBIQ, some ball handling. This guy is a potential top 30 player if he can shoot 40% from three.
... I don't know what the odds are that he can shoot that well from three.
Not a bad point on Byrd and White. I do think I should have Byrd in the top 30 probably.
Ideally, I think Tre is probably your second guy -- an off-ball scorer who can be a secondary creator and can score in isolation. It's a lot to ask him to be the main guy.
Is he staying in the draft?
I'm waiting until the 28th to start making updates on my big board.
I do like Byrd. Had my eye on him during the season, but just never checked in on him. He has great indicators. I get the sense that he was playing in a role too big for him, which is totally fine. Great role player potential. Don’t think he’s Derrick White where he’ll have PG ability, but he has enough ball skills to make some decisions with the ball.
We don't need just a scorer. We need offensive initiator, someone who can not just score for himself but create efficient offense for the whole team. Tre Johnson can barely create below average to average efficiency offense for himself. And gives you pretty much nothing else at average or above average level on the floor. He's below average creator for others, he's below average rebounder(this is one of my favorite hidden basic stats for guards that show you something about a player), he's below average defender too... You have to project a ton with him to be honest and a lot of the things he needs serious improvement with are not easy to project.
The only thing I’d add here is that he is an above average passer….but passing/playmaking can be considered different things. He doesn’t break down the defense enough to create plays for others. But I think you’re right for the most part. He is a really great shooter/shot maker, but there is more to that when becoming a lead option.
Definitely underrating his passing.
Fair, but like KqWIN pointed out... he needs to improve a lot his ability to create advantages of the type that matter for his playmaking for others. Pretty much the only break down of the defense he can do now is the type that creates him a step back or pull up jumper.
fishonjazz
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Yep, freshman college players who are barely 19 have stuff they need to improve on to be all star caliber nba players. Great point.
The thing with the things he needs to improve is that they are things that players usually have hard time improving. If you are already not getting to the rim in college, you rarely start going to the rim in the NBA, if you are not already drawing fouls you are not likely to start getting to the line in the NBA. He needs to start creating advantages of the type that force help so his passing would matter.
fishonjazz
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Ya that could be the answer to any players perceived weaknesses.
Players who have been playing basketball competitively their entire lives who still aren't good at something by the time they are in college usually will have a hard time improving that weakness when they start playing against the very best players in the world who are much older and more experienced.
It is what it is. We just dont know if any of these players will get better at the things they aren't as good at currently. Just have to try to determine if the tools are there and if they are coachable and willing to work and that the coaches we have need to be up to the task. As for tools, tre seems to have the size and athleticism at least. Hopefully he has the attitude and work ethic and our coaches are good at coaching.
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Thee Idiotic Minivan K
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But he is getting to the rim in college finishing is a different story though. I hate the stereotypes people place on Tre, but I guess I should be thankful otherwise he’d be the third pick. He’s painted as an unathletic scoring tweener that doesn’t defend or pass.
All false by the way. He may very well end up second in redrafts 5 years from now.
I’ve seen a few full games from the first and second half of the season. He was a good defender in the first half, and it fell off some in the second half, but not to the point that he’s Sexton or Key. He has potential to be a good defender in the league
I just cant really disagree more.
homeytennis
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I see that Cedric Coward is staying in the draft.
It would be a massive development for Tre if he were to maintain his rim rate/free throw rate into the NBA, but even if he maintains, that’s a tough way to be efficient in the NBA. I think he has more efficiency gains to be made by turning his mid range 2’s into 3’s. Like stitches said, it’s very rare for players to increase those former two metrics in the NBA.
I mean... it's not impossible he improves. I just want us to know exactly what we are betting on if we pick him and not be delusional about the chance he improves in ways that would make him not just efficient scorer, but also primary offense initiator of a great offense.
If you applied Tre fan logic to every prospect then every prospect would look amazing. If every weakness was going to be solved by going to the NBA and isn't actually a weakness because they saw them do it well once, then basically every prospect is Cooper Flagg.