Following Potential 2025 Draftees
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
Out of all the different twitter philosophies that people are definitely too confident in, I find "draft high feel" to be the most convincing. The only issue I take with that is that we don't really have a great way to measure feel. AST/TOV is mostly fine and what is often cited....but idk if that's the best way to measure this. I feel like there are some smart/high feel players that turn the ball over a lot and players who don't turn the ball over a lot just on the basis of shooting it every time. I think the high assist, high turnover guys tend to have better feel than the low assist, low turnover guys. Maybe something like AST *1.5-2.0 / TOV would be better.
Guys I seem notably lower on than consensus:
Ace Bailey - doesn't pass, isn't really a plus anything at this point. Good measurements with a promising scoring skillset. Mid to later lotto imo.
Jeremiah Fears - a poor shooting smallish guard, meh. Late lotto to mid 1st.
Guys I like notably more than consensus:
Egor Demin - Size + playmaking = yes, please. Mid lotto.
Thomas Sorber - If he passes the medical portions I think he's the best big man in this draft. Great measurements, super smart on the court, good baseline skill level. Love him. High to mid lotto.
Don't really follow internationals.
Ace Bailey - doesn't pass, isn't really a plus anything at this point. Good measurements with a promising scoring skillset. Mid to later lotto imo.
Jeremiah Fears - a poor shooting smallish guard, meh. Late lotto to mid 1st.
Guys I like notably more than consensus:
Egor Demin - Size + playmaking = yes, please. Mid lotto.
Thomas Sorber - If he passes the medical portions I think he's the best big man in this draft. Great measurements, super smart on the court, good baseline skill level. Love him. High to mid lotto.
Don't really follow internationals.
I saw this article making the rounds today. It talks about the different ways you can find an "edge" in the the draft. It cites a 10 year old Jazzfanz post made by @idiot 10 years ago where he interviews the OG Layne "VJL" Vashro who proceeds to give great insight and takes on prospects that did not age well at all lol.
I saw this article making the rounds today. It talks about the different ways you can find an "edge" in the the draft. It cites a 10 year old Jazzfanz post made by @idiot 10 years ago where he interviews the OG Layne "VJL" Vashro who proceeds to give great insight and takes on prospects that did not age well at all lol.
TL/DR:
Undo the Groupthink Before Applying the Wisdom of Crowds
Upweight “Superforecasters” like the Dating Mastermind Dean Demakis
Understand Shooting Variance
Understand the Importance of Seemingly Small Age Differences
Understand the Predictive Power of Statistical Indicators
Understand Length > Height
Understand Which Archetypes/Molds are More/Less Valuable at the NBA Level
One-Dimensional Scoring is Overrated
On-Ball Defense is Overrated and Off-Ball Defense is Underrated
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
I think on ball defense was not super relevant back in 2014 and is basically a prerequiste for being able to play at all in the NBA now.
If you watch old tape, Kobe basically doesn't play any defense in the 2008 Finals as an example. He just stands vaguely next to his man, doing nothing and paying attention to nothing. SVG doesn't even try to exploit this.
In 2025, every star is constantly doing a billion things on defense. If you're a weak link, your team just starts hemorrhaging points outside of if you play to funnel to your center (and this stops working against superstars as the Jazz found out... over and over and over and over again). You will be put in ball screen after ball screen until you're guarding their star player and then your team will give up an open shot.
Coaching and player strategy is just too good to get away with bad individual defense now.
If you watch old tape, Kobe basically doesn't play any defense in the 2008 Finals as an example. He just stands vaguely next to his man, doing nothing and paying attention to nothing. SVG doesn't even try to exploit this.
In 2025, every star is constantly doing a billion things on defense. If you're a weak link, your team just starts hemorrhaging points outside of if you play to funnel to your center (and this stops working against superstars as the Jazz found out... over and over and over and over again). You will be put in ball screen after ball screen until you're guarding their star player and then your team will give up an open shot.
Coaching and player strategy is just too good to get away with bad individual defense now.
This is precisely why on ball defense is less important in 2025 than 2014.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
I’m up in the air here but isn’t he going to have the same issues Gobert had in the playoffs? He wasn’t as affective in post season play.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Wasn’t Kawhi Leonard kind of a mid major college and upperclassman?
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
In terms of being a great defender? Sure.
In terms of being a bad/unplayable defender? Not really. 2/10 on-ball defenders could be hidden in 2014 and will kill you in 2025.
Kasparas Jakucionis is someone I feel like is high feel when I think about it.
Beringer had 14 and 10 in playoff Game 1 of a series for his team
I feel like future myself wrote that article, lol. I loved it because a lot of the conclusions were thoughts I've had or were working towards. So in a way I feel self agrandizing by liking this article.I saw this article making the rounds today. It talks about the different ways you can find an "edge" in the the draft. It cites a 10 year old Jazzfanz post made by @idiot 10 years ago where he interviews the OG Layne "VJL" Vashro who proceeds to give great insight and takes on prospects that did not age well at all lol.
The reality is that the draft is probably just random enough it's almost impossible to be "good" at it. If you take yourself too seriously then you'll be stressed for nothing.
You think 2/10 off ball defenders can hide in the NBA playoffs? In many ways, on ball defense is the easiest part of defense. It takes the least amount of thinking. Guys like Kuminga, Green, and Mathurin aren't struggling to play because they can't guard a guys 1v1. It's because they aren't smart enough to make the right decisions defense.
Off ball defense is more important across the board in 2025 whether you're talking about good or bad defenders. Off ball defense was hardly a thing at all in 2014. You could stand around and do nothing. Of course it is going to be more important in 2025 when the offenses are more advanced, spread out, and talented. It's all about covering space, covering for your teammates, disrupting the passing lanes, and recovering.
These are the foundations of the way I think today. At least when I'm wrong, I can point to this and blame it on all these concepts
It was a trip to see a Jazzfanz post from 2015 cited!
Why is anyone looking at a 10-year old Jazzfanz post for insight on drafting/ranking philosophy?I saw this article making the rounds today. It talks about the different ways you can find an "edge" in the the draft. It cites a 10 year old Jazzfanz post made by @idiot 10 years ago where he interviews the OG Layne "VJL" Vashro who proceeds to give great insight and takes on prospects that did not age well at all lol.
Funny -- I think draft confidence has a way of biting people in the long run.interviews the OG Layne "VJL" Vashro who proceeds to give great insight and takes on prospects that did not age well at all lol.
The thing we need most in trying to figure out who is a good evaluator (or what traits are most valuable) is some kind of systematic tracking over time of people's takes, but that's exactly what we almost never see.
Big respect for looking all the way to the footnotes to find this.
View: https://youtu.be/gmuX8Sx43AM?si=v23JsoBrV9jeFhFI
The transition euro gallop (not sure what to call it exactly) is why I think Beringer has some sneaky upside outside of just being a meat and potatoes rim runner.
fishonjazz
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He looks way better than Cody Williams
For real though, I would love to get him at 21
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