Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm not sure what it's called, but the standing reach + the vertical (I believe total reach or vertical reach) is the number that's important as well as the number that I believe they are actually measuring.

It would take some time to adjust to, but I don't know why it's not talked about at all or easy to find.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Is this stat for Essengue correct? I was checking other top prospects' FTRate and the thing I'm looking at says... .800!!! Is this true? How?

I just looked up Shaqs FTR and he had an average of 0.578 with a high of 0.713.

 

[KqWIN]

The best ways to judge athleticism are:

Useful:
Did they do the athletic things on the court?
Do they look athletic on film (actual film not highlights)?

Somewhat useful, but easy to overemphasize:
Measurements

Not Useful:
Testing

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The best ways to judge athleticism are:

Useful:
Did they do the athletic things on the court?
Do they look athletic on film (actual film not highlights)?

Somewhat useful, but easy to overemphasize:
Measurements

Not Useful:
Testing

I don't quite understand, how are measurements useful for judging athleticism?

I also disagree that testing is not useful at all.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Just thinking out loud: VJ is probably the one guy in our range that would fit in on both OKC and Indiana. I think there’s something to the idea that we might be entering an era that is as much about minimizing weaknesses and depth as it is about star power.

I am concerned that Tre is just a high-level, high-volume shooter with little else to his game. Ace definitely has strong defensive potential, but if his major weakness is his BBIQ/processing speed that leads to him being a methodical bucket, that’s also sub-optimal.

If one assesses Tre or Ace’s major value as being bucket-getters, maybe just go grab one off the shelf? Pure scorers aren’t terribly valuable, so maybe just grab a Cam Thomas or Whitmore using much less premium assets and either trade up for VJ or trade down for Kon (if you can believe he can just pass defensively in a scheme).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm not sure what it's called, but the standing reach + the vertical (I believe total reach or vertical reach) is the number that's important as well as the number that I believe they are actually measuring.

It would take some time to adjust to, but I don't know why it's not talked about at all or easy to find.

Right. VJ touched a point 1.5" higher than Tre in spite of being roughly and inch shorter and having a few less inches on the wingspan.

 

[underdog]

BTW, I just watched a bit of Kasparas Jakucionis... I don't know what to do with him... I'm so torn... He has a lot of good statistical indicators. And he obviously is skilled and knows how to play... I just cannot shake that feeling that a lot of what was working for him in college will simply not work in the NBA. There were so many plays where I thought... "Oh nice... nice bit of craft here... no way this works against NBA length/athleticism, though, right?..."

It’s all about predicting what a draft prospect will be in a few years, not what he is now. I like Kasparas because imo he has the overall package to be a great player in 4-5 years. All the mock drafts out there mean little to me (many of them are more or less copies of each other and created by folks who don’t have time to do proper evaluations). A lot of prospects ranked at #5-10 or #11-20 on consensus big boards have later become all-stars. Predicting draft prospects is hard, so I could be wrong, of course. But that’s how I see Kas.

 

[KqWIN]

I don't quite understand, how are measurements useful for judging athleticism?

I also disagree that testing is not useful at all.

I guess I should amend it to say "The best ways to judge physical ability"

Personally, I haven't seen anything convincing about testing numbers -> NBA outcomes. And when I look at the testing numbers, I don't think it's a good representation of reality. If a player doesn't meet expectations (good or bad), maybe that deserves a second look. But I honestly think I'm better off not paying attention to the testing numbers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Just thinking out loud: VJ is probably the one guy in our range that would fit in on both OKC and Indiana. I think there’s something to the idea that we might be entering an era that is as much about minimizing weaknesses and depth as it is about star power.

I am concerned that Tre is just a high-level, high-volume shooter with little else to his game. Ace definitely has strong defensive potential, but if his major weakness is his BBIQ/processing speed that leads to him being a methodical bucket, that’s also sub-optimal.

If one assesses Tre or Ace’s major value as being bucket-getters, maybe just go grab one off the shelf? Pure scorers aren’t terribly valuable, so maybr just grab a Cam Thomas or Whitmore using much less premium assets and either trade up for VJ or trade down for Kon (if you can believe he can work in a scheme).

I'm torn on VJ someone threw out Mathurin as a comp and I think Mathurin with decent BBIQ might be pretty good...

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

VJ is basically like a smaller clone of Jalen Williams if he hits.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I'm torn on VJ someone threw out Mathurin as a comp and I think Mathurin with decent BBIQ might be pretty good...

I think he’d also (easily) be the most fun to cheer for.

 

[KqWIN]

Just thinking out loud: VJ is probably the one guy in our range that would fit in on both OKC and Indiana. I think there’s something to the idea that we might be entering an era that is as much about minimizing weaknesses and depth as it is about star power.

I am concerned that Tre is just a high-level, high-volume shooter with little else to his game. Ace definitely has strong defensive potential, but if his major weakness is his BBIQ/processing speed that leads to him being a methodical bucket, that’s also sub-optimal.

If one assesses Tre or Ace’s major value as being bucket-getters, maybe just go grab one off the shelf? Pure scorers aren’t terribly valuable, so maybr just grab a Cam Thomas or Whitmore using much less premium assets and either trade up for VJ or trade down for Kon (if you can believe he can work in a scheme).

The only thing I'd push back on is that having a clearer role player route doesn't mean less star potential. Beyond obvious elite prospects (Flagg/Harper etc), star outcomes are split between guys who played like stars in college and guys who grew into stardom later at the NBA level.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It won't be plus 1-3 inches lol. Did you actually go look... its just not true. Its minues 1-2 inches... which is exactly what I said. Its okay... its still a great vert but he is not in VJ's class there.

You're just overthinking what the max vert test says.

VJ isnt an incredible athlete because he jumps really high. He's an incredible athlete becuase he jumps very high very quickly, which is something the combine doesnt test.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, Jalen Williams is another example of a guy who had very low DBPM in college but is now considered a + defender.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm torn on VJ someone threw out Mathurin as a comp and I think Mathurin with decent BBIQ might be pretty good...

I loved Mathurin out of the draft, but his result is one that has reshaped my process. I value BBIQ more as a result.....but I think VJ is a smart+unselfish player. A high intangible (albeit smaller) Mathurin does sound pretty great.

Oladipo is the obvious comp and for good reason. My expectation is that he's anywhere between ORL Oladipo and IND Oladipo.

 

[stitches]

It’s all about predicting what a draft prospect will be in a few years, not what he is now. I like Kasparas because imo he has the overall package to be a great player in 4-5 years. All the mock drafts out there mean little to me (many of them are more or less copies of each other and created by folks who don’t have time to do proper evaluations). A lot of prospects ranked at #5-10 or #11-20 on consensus big boards have later become all-stars. Predicting draft prospects is hard, so I could be wrong, of course. But that’s how I see Kas.

I don't see Kasparas as a particularly raw prospect. In fact, in certain aspects he's pretty advanced. I think he can be at the very least a good rotational player... just not sure about the top range of outcomes...

 

[rippimpc]

I personally like plus athletes that play below the rim

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There's no reason why Tre Johnson cant be a solid defender at the NBA level. Of course there is risk in projecting that, but I'd rather take that risk than take a lesser offensive talent who projects to be better on defense because those guys also dont always pan out to be good NBA defenders.

I think we are just too shellshocked by how bad a guy like Keyonte is on D.

 

[rippimpc]

Would be awesome if Leif is right and Tre could play point guard. I’d prefer he play down a position and guard smaller guys.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You're just overthinking what the max vert test says.

VJ isnt an incredible athlete because he jumps really high. He's an incredible athlete becuase he jumps very high very quickly, which is something the combine doesnt test.

I mean I was responding to the original post that said he measured similar to VJ. I understand there is a lot of differences between guys athletically other than just jumping high. I tend to care more about how the athleticism manifests itself on the court either way... with Tre the numbers certainly don't scream great athlete even though he performed well at the combine.