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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

seattlejazzfan said:
in the bolded, you just described collier again. and as great as you say he is in the mid-range, and comments about form and "indicators" Collier still had a higher TS% than Fears. it seems you're may just be trying to convince yourself. so we draft one guy at 29 and the other guy at 5 because of form and indicators. got it.
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Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
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in all seriousness, i'm seeing the nuance and i don't disagree. i just think relying on shooting indicators as the difference between drafting two guys who are otherwise very similar, one at 29 and the other at 5, is a stretch. especially when the guy with the supposedly worse indicators does other things better.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
in all seriousness, i'm seeing the nuance and i don't disagree. i just think relying on shooting indicators as the difference between drafting two guys who are otherwise very similar, one at 29 and the other at 5, is a stretch. especially when the guy with the supposedly worse indicators does other things better.
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Its a fair argument that I can't debate too much on. I don't like the idea of undercutting guys who have developed/performed well the year before. Something about showing loyalty to the guys you draft. The shooting with Fears is the stretch that I hope works out but I am not sure. Is Collier close enough to Fears to look in another direction at 5?
 
Fears is extremely similar to Collier yes, but he is a bit better of a prospect because

1. His elite body control suggests he can develop a good finishing package whereas that was hard to project for Collier.
2. Fears is a much better free throw shooter

Is the gap nearly as large as you'd want between a #5 pick and a #29 pick? Absolutely not.

However, the Jazz have probably already given up on Collier because he's shown no shooting progress and Fears is them rolling the dice again, hoping that one of these ball in hand star prospects will learn how to shoot. Any team that picks Fears should expect him to fail and end up being an irrelevant bench player in the NBA, you're just hoping for like the 25% shot that he does learn how to shoot and becomes a real star.

It wouldn't shock me if Fears has a horrible rookie season and then the Jazz take another ball in hand prospect who also can't shoot next year to roll the dice again and again and again.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Aren't both Lamelo and Fears pure on ball guard types? Or can Lamelo do off ball stuff, I am not overly familiar with the Hornets. I suppose Lamelo gets injured pretty often.
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LaMelo is a big guard. He's a creative passer nad stuff, but Fears gives them a different element. If you have two big jumbo guards, you can afford to have a regular sized guard next to them.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
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I kind of disagree with this. I think his numbers are plenty impressive in their own way, though he's not an analytics darling by any means. I've been informed about Tre's PPG a million times this year, so in that sense Fears is just as valid. Same scoring rate/efficiency against the same SOS.
 
Fears' numbers are both very impressive for an 18 year old and very unimpressive for a prospect because nothing fits together currently. Fears scored mostly because his body control allowed him to flop to the line at will, but this isn't going to translate to the NBA until he learns how to score without going to the line. Defenders will just give him space and dare him to make lightly contested shots instead of giving him a chance to flop.

This is why Anthony Black, maybe the greatest flopping prospect I've ever seen, has struggled so badly in the NBA. He can't get defenders close enough to actually flop to the line because he's so bad at scoring from the field.

But Fears' flopping becomes incredibly useful if he does learn how to score from the field.
 
KqWIN said:
I kind of disagree with this. I think his numbers are plenty impressive in their own way, though he's not an analytics darling by any means. I've been informed about Tre's PPG a million times this year, so in that sense Fears is just as valid. Same scoring rate/efficiency against the same SOS.
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I have just been looking at Kon's and Jase's stats recently. Maybe that's why I am disappointed.
 
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