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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Basketball Novice said:
Fears gets to the rim at a massively higher rate than Tre, also draws tons of fouls, turning shots he would make at the rim into Free Throws which don't get reflected in the rim%.

Fears has great shooting indicators from everywhere except off the dribble 3s. He just took a ton of off dribble 3s. Fears shoots as well with non-rim 2s as Ace Bailey (46%)

Fears has a 28.6% assist rate compared to Tre's 16.5% assist rate. When players make more passes, they have more turnovers generally. A/T ratio is only a small part of the playmaking picture. Tre is masssively handicapped by the fact that he can't consistently get into the paint and create advantages for others.

Fears profiles as a boom or bust offensive engine guard. Tre profiles as an all shooting no defense off guard. That is why some people see Fears as a better prospect.
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i feel like you just described collier - who the jazz drafted at 29! last year.

gets to the rim a lot, but has trouble finishing. excellent FT rate. draws tons of fouls. excellent assist rate. basically identical size. only difference is Fears shot FTs better, while Collier shot the three better. TS% Fears 56.2, Collier 56.7.

so why are we drafting that guy at 5? Collier ended up being excellent value at 29, so Fears at 21? absolutely. the guy we achieved the worst record in the league for? uh, well, yikes.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
i feel like you just described collier - who the jazz drafted at 29! last year.

gets to the rim a lot, but has trouble finishing. excellent FT rate. draws tons of fouls. excellent assist rate. basically identical size. only difference is Fears shot FTs better, while Collier shot the three better. TS% Fears 56.2, Collier 56.7.

so why are we drafting that guy at 5?
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Fears has much better shooting form and shooting indicators than Collier. Fear's elite qualities are his ball handling, getting to any spot he wants on the court and his aggression going to the basket. Fears is also great in the midrange. Collier is a bit more of a North/South guard who uses his high level speed to get to the basket but is very limited shooting in the mid range and the 3.

I would say Fears is a couple steps better as a prospect than Collier was as a prospect.
 
Honestly, the biggest thing Jace has going for him is that he is the guy that I don't think we should draft, no matter what. Well, him and Queen. . .
 
Basketball Novice said:
Fears has much better shooting form and shooting indicators than Collier. Fear's elite qualities are his ball handling, getting to any spot he wants on the court and his aggression going to the basket. Fears is also great in the midrange. Collier is a bit more of a North/South guard who uses his high level speed to get to the basket but is very limited shooting in the mid range and the 3.

I would say Fears is a couple steps better as a prospect than Collier was as a prospect.
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in the bolded, you just described collier again. and as great as you say he is in the mid-range, and comments about form and "indicators" Collier still had a higher TS% than Fears. it seems you're may just be trying to convince yourself. so we draft one guy at 29 and the other guy at 5 because of form and indicators. got it.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
in the bolded, you just described collier again. and as great as you say he is in the mid-range, and comments about form and "indicators" Collier still had a higher TS% than Fears. it seems you're may just be trying to convince yourself. so we draft one guy at 29 and the other guy at 5 because of form and indicators. got it.
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Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
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in all seriousness, i'm seeing the nuance and i don't disagree. i just think relying on shooting indicators as the difference between drafting two guys who are otherwise very similar, one at 29 and the other at 5, is a stretch. especially when the guy with the supposedly worse indicators does other things better.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
in all seriousness, i'm seeing the nuance and i don't disagree. i just think relying on shooting indicators as the difference between drafting two guys who are otherwise very similar, one at 29 and the other at 5, is a stretch. especially when the guy with the supposedly worse indicators does other things better.
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Its a fair argument that I can't debate too much on. I don't like the idea of undercutting guys who have developed/performed well the year before. Something about showing loyalty to the guys you draft. The shooting with Fears is the stretch that I hope works out but I am not sure. Is Collier close enough to Fears to look in another direction at 5?
 
Fears is extremely similar to Collier yes, but he is a bit better of a prospect because

1. His elite body control suggests he can develop a good finishing package whereas that was hard to project for Collier.
2. Fears is a much better free throw shooter

Is the gap nearly as large as you'd want between a #5 pick and a #29 pick? Absolutely not.

However, the Jazz have probably already given up on Collier because he's shown no shooting progress and Fears is them rolling the dice again, hoping that one of these ball in hand star prospects will learn how to shoot. Any team that picks Fears should expect him to fail and end up being an irrelevant bench player in the NBA, you're just hoping for like the 25% shot that he does learn how to shoot and becomes a real star.

It wouldn't shock me if Fears has a horrible rookie season and then the Jazz take another ball in hand prospect who also can't shoot next year to roll the dice again and again and again.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Aren't both Lamelo and Fears pure on ball guard types? Or can Lamelo do off ball stuff, I am not overly familiar with the Hornets. I suppose Lamelo gets injured pretty often.
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LaMelo is a big guard. He's a creative passer nad stuff, but Fears gives them a different element. If you have two big jumbo guards, you can afford to have a regular sized guard next to them.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Fair enough, some things can't be described through purely stats and I don't have the ability to articulate it any better. Fears isn't a guy you can look at the numbers and be all that impressed by. Perhaps I am wrong on this and Fears is just Collier. Think you are losing some nuance but who knows.
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I kind of disagree with this. I think his numbers are plenty impressive in their own way, though he's not an analytics darling by any means. I've been informed about Tre's PPG a million times this year, so in that sense Fears is just as valid. Same scoring rate/efficiency against the same SOS.
 
Fears' numbers are both very impressive for an 18 year old and very unimpressive for a prospect because nothing fits together currently. Fears scored mostly because his body control allowed him to flop to the line at will, but this isn't going to translate to the NBA until he learns how to score without going to the line. Defenders will just give him space and dare him to make lightly contested shots instead of giving him a chance to flop.

This is why Anthony Black, maybe the greatest flopping prospect I've ever seen, has struggled so badly in the NBA. He can't get defenders close enough to actually flop to the line because he's so bad at scoring from the field.

But Fears' flopping becomes incredibly useful if he does learn how to score from the field.
 
KqWIN said:
I kind of disagree with this. I think his numbers are plenty impressive in their own way, though he's not an analytics darling by any means. I've been informed about Tre's PPG a million times this year, so in that sense Fears is just as valid. Same scoring rate/efficiency against the same SOS.
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I have just been looking at Kon's and Jase's stats recently. Maybe that's why I am disappointed.
 
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