Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[stitches]

The brain may be the hardest thing to fix... which is the biggest red flag on Ace. If he is a worker and coachable I think you can work around it.

Yeah... agreed... quirkiness, strange personality... a good coach can work around, or hell, even use those things for positive effect. How hard of a worker he is, how self-motivated he is and what his determination to improve is, are the real questions that need to be answered in the positive here.

 

[KqWIN]

On the whole, college teams put a MUCH bigger emphasis on clogging up the interior. Defenders are slower, smaller and dumber, so it makes more sense to rely on a brainless wall of meat around the paint instead of NBA-style 1-on-1 matchups and lightning quick help rotations. Outside shooters are so much worse in college ball that conceding 3's now and then isn't such a huge problem.

Super athletic, rim-attacking perimeter players can absolutely have an easier time in the NBA.

They shoot way more at the rim and from the FT line in college than the NBA. That's a fact. Whether a guy is good or bad at getting to the rim in college, expect the rim rate and free throw rate to get lower.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

They shoot way more at the rim and from the FT line in college than the NBA. That's a fact.

Yeah, because most college teams still have a very inefficient post-up / midrange centric offense despite the fact that the perimeter defenses are weak. That's why college ball is so dumb and hard to watch. Everything happens inside the perimeter and there's zero space.

For your average college team, the comfort zone is forcing the ball inside, crashing the offensive boards and proceeding to miss 3 gimmies in a row right at the rim. The crowds love it and my eyes bleed.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Locke is funny with his scouting. Claims to be a numbers guy... but sees one moment and is like "I'm good... I've seen it... even though it didn't work". But Kon who had great success there... "yeah that will get swallowed up in the NBA".

Just say you like one guy over the other and it might be based on vibes, feel, whatevs.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

I think Philly is stuck with Embiid, and I think they're probably stuck with Paul George. The cost to the Sixers to try to get off those contracts is prohibitively high. They've got their younger guards that they believe in, though they might want to bring one off the bench just so they have more size defensively. They can add a top-3 pick this year, so now they can have a young core developing behind Embiid/PG. I think they just draft their favorite player among the Ace/Tre/VJ tier and keep him to develop.

If the Jazz offered Lauri and 5 for PG and 3, I think the Sixers would take that deal and run for the exit, but the Jazz won't do it. I don't see the Jazz moving Lauri and taking Paul George back just to move up two spots.

The last time a player fell to the Jazz due to just horrible interviews, it was 2023 when Cam Whitmore fell to the Jazz at 16.

... And then the Jazz passed on him for Keyonte because Keyonte interviewed so much better.

Keyonte is viewed as a better prospect than Whitmore and both are pretty marginal prospects so it was obviously fine.

Cam and Ace are obviously very different in that Whitmore basically gave one to two word answers to every question and seemed nearly asleep every time he did interviews, whereas Ace thinks he's the greatest basketball player to ever live. Very different types of bad interviewer so we don't know if the Jazz mind these bad answers from Ace.

The Jazz also picked Cody in large part due to how well he interviewed so we'll see if they change their approach after Cody was horrendous.

Interviewers have an unearned and irrational confidence in their ability to discern character, performance, etc. from personal interviews. Anyone who thinks s/he can accurately and consistently "read" people in interviews is self-deluded.

Here's one source on the topic https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...dictors-job-interviews-are-useless-and-unfair. (I haven't done anything remotely close to an exhaustive lit search on the topic, this link is meant as food for thought, not proof.) I've personally done a lot of interviewing, and I rarely feel confident at the end that one candidate is THAT much better than others. The decision often hinges subjective feel, never a good indicator of accuracy, and boy did I/we make some doozy mistakes as a result.

I don't know if these interviews are unstructured or structured, the latter is preferred as per the linked article. They are probably more structured. But, I strongly suspect they involve a non-trivial level of irrational self-confidence in one's interviewing and discernment skills. Frankly, I put little stock in them.

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah, because most college teams still have a very inefficient post-up / midrange centric offense despite the fact that the perimeter defenses are weak. That's why college ball is so dumb and hard to watch. Everything happens inside the perimeter and there's zero space.

For your average college team, the comfort zone is forcing the ball inside, crashing the offensive boards and proceeding to miss 3 gimmies in a row right at the rim. The crowds love it and my eyes bleed.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying, but what you're saying doesn't change the fact that NBA prospects shoot more at the rim and FT line in college than they do in the NBA.

 

[KqWIN]

Locke is funny with his scouting. Claims to be a numbers guy... but sees one moment and is like "I'm good... I've seen it... even though it didn't work". But Kon who had great success there... "yeah that will get swallowed up in the NBA".

Just say you like one guy over the other and it might be based on vibes, feel, whatevs.

He's afraid of Kon's thickness.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Interviewers have an unearned and irrational confidence in their ability to discern character, performance, etc. from personal interviews. Anyone who thinks s/he can accurately and consistently "read" people in interviews is self-deluded.

Here's one source on the topic https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...dictors-job-interviews-are-useless-and-unfair. (I haven't done anything remotely close to an exhaustive lit search on the topic, this link is meant as food for thought, not proof.) I've personally done a lot of interviewing, and I rarely feel confident at the end that one candidate is THAT much better than others. The decision often hinges subjective feel, never a good indicator of accuracy, and boy did I/we make some doozy mistakes as a result.

I don't know if these interviews are unstructured or structured, the latter is preferred as per the linked article. They are probably more structured. But, I strongly suspect they involve a non-trivial level of irrational self-confidence in one's interviewing and discernment skills. Frankly, I put little stock in them.

I mean, I have no idea how much they actually matter, but the Jazz picked Cody Williams and Keyonte George in large part due to how much they crushed the interview part and just how intelligent they are off the court in general. That was the only thing the Jazz would talk about with Keyonte for like a solid year, just how smart he was off the court. And Hollinger said Whitmore dropped (according to his sources) because he had the worst interviews anyone had seen in many years and seemed stoned/half asleep when trying to answer questions.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I haven't looked up the numbers like KqWIN, but anectdotedly this happens every year. People get on here saying that NBA spacing is going to be so good for a player and then it never happens.

I'm pretty sure that improved NBA spacing is negated by improved NBA defense.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

Jazz have too many young guys to utilize another pick and would need the ability to move 18 and 21 and 42 up to like 11 for Queen. I don't know if they can move up to the late lottery with 18 and 21.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

No, Jazz need THE guy, not guys. We tanked in the hope of getting a transformative player. If there's a player the Jazz think is this player, or close to it, and may be there at 5 but perhaps less likely to be there at 6, why take the risk for yet another prospect to add the to six prospects we already have? We already got jobbed by lady luck. It makes no sense to risk getting jobbed again, particularly if the risk is large and payoff is meh

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I haven't looked up the numbers like KqWIN, but anectdotedly this happens every year. People get on here saying that NBA spacing is going to be so good for a player and then it never happens.

I'm pretty sure that improved NBA spacing is negated by improved NBA defense.

I wonder if catch and shoot players are actually more positively impacted by NBA spacing. All of the help and recover defense leads to more open 3s (although shorter windows to shoot them).

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

No, Jazz need THE guy, not guys. We tanked in the hope of getting a transformative player. If there's a player the Jazz think is this player, or close to it, and may be there at 5 but perhaps less likely to be there at 6, why take the risk for yet more prospects to add the to six prospects we already have? We already got jobbed by lady luck. It makes no sense to risk getting jobbed again, particularly if the risk is large and payoff is meh

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Jazz have too many young guys to utilize another pick and would need the ability to move 18 and 21 and 42 up to like 11 for Queen. I don't know if they can move up to the late lottery with 18 and 21.

You could also move off of a young guy or two if you wanted. Like at this point I am not putting much stock into Cody. I kind of know what Key is. I think we could move 18, 21 with other players as well or for future picks... I don't factor in the second rounders at all... just kick those down the road on draft night to a cap strapped team for a far out 2nd.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I haven't looked up the numbers like KqWIN, but anectdotedly this happens every year. People get on here saying that NBA spacing is going to be so good for a player and then it never happens.

I'm pretty sure that improved NBA spacing is negated by improved NBA defense.

Every context is different. Tre will have an easier time getting to the rim/in the paint on Utah than he would in the SEC on Texas.

Finishing is harder in the NBA, for the most part (depending on who you play), but the act of getting there is easier in the NBA.

When players get to the NBA, they (not all of course) greatly improve their finishing because it's such an important part of being a NBA player.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

No

 

[Basketball Novice]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

Absolutely, I like the guys in the 6-10 range alot. Plus, there are some interesting guys in the 20s that have some good potential. Take BPA at 6, take Yang or a center at 18 or 21 and then whatever late 1st round wing you think has the highest potential with the other pick. You would also be able to move up and down the first for whoever you wanted in the early teens if someone was to fall farther than expected.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Wizards come to you before the draft. Offer 6 and 18 for 5 BUT you have to take the trade right now before knowing what the board looks like. You doing it?

No, if Tre or Ace is there that would be an awful trade.

Only way I would say yes is if Utah guaranteed me they are taking Yang at 18. Then I would say yes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you are cool/indifferent on Tre/Kon and can pick up another pick... there is no such thing as too many picks.

Another one... NOP offer 7 and the Indiana 2026 they own for 5. Same deal. You have to do it before the draft starts.