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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

It's worth hunting for
Especially with Ace and Tre within our reach. If we were drafting 9th or 10th again I would buy the go for a safer pick a little more but we’re picking top-5 for only the 6th time ever. Let’s go for it. We don’t have a ton of opportunities like this ever. Screw going high floor and safe.
 
49 NCAA prospects drafted from 2012-2021 in the 3-8 Range:

I classified them into 3 categories:

Hit - Borderline All Star or better, Jamal Murray is the worst "hit"

Starter - Established themselves as a starter level player. Deandre Hunger is the worst "starter"

Bust - Everything worse


15 Hits
15 Starters
19 Busts

Highest Hit:Bust ratio is PG
Highest Bust:Hit ratio is C/Big

I made an arbitrary line of greater than 25% usage or not. Greater than >25% usage is slightly better than players <25%, but it is essentially the same.

Closest players based on stats/physical/playstyle etc.

Ace - Tatum, Josh Jackson, Harrison Barnes
VJ - Suggs, Smart, Beal, McLemore, Waiters, Okoro
Fears - Garland, Sexton, Fox, Lillard, Coby White
Tre - Hield, Murray, KCP, Beal, McLemore
Kon - Stauskas?
 
I actually think that's a fair statement. There are times when I watch him and I do and times that I don't.
Kas had a 10 game stretch from games 6-15 where he averaged 20/5/5/1 while shooting 45.9% from three on 6.1 attempts per game.

During this span he looked like a sure fire top-5 pick.
 
Comparing the top NBA draft prospects best consecutive 10-game stretch in college basketball this season:

Cooper Flagg - 23.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 57/47/85 splits

Dylan Harper - 23.8 PPG, 5 RPG, 4.4 APG, 51/37/81 splits

Ace Bailey - 23.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG 1.9 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 49/45/72 splits

Tre Johnson - 24.6 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1 SPG, 44/41/92 splits

VJ Edgecombe - 18.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 48/41/85 splits

Kon Knueppel - 17.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 54/46/92 splits

Jeremiah Fears - 21.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 42/33/87 splits

Collin Murray-Boyles - 21 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.6 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 59% FG, 75% FT

Kasparas Jakucionis - 20 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1 SPG, 51/46/89 splits

Khaman Maluach - 10.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 73% FG, 93% FT

Derik Queen - 19.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 1 SPG, 53% FG, 83% FT
 
I think about tiers differently every year, so either I'm evolving, or there's no right way to think about it, lol.

The reason I have Ace/VJ/Tre in a higher tier is:
- Ace is capable of making shots that you only see from star players and the things he needs to work on should/could improve with coaching/maturity.
- Tre had the 2nd/3rd best production in the class for a Freshman. He would be in Harper's tier if he was a little more well rounded.
- VJ had similar production to the lower tier, but his athleticism/defensive play making puts him the higher tier.
All 3 have the size and athleticism to feel confident that they will fit in the NBA

I think it's clear those are the 3-5 guys, and then I think it's perfectly fine if you have personal preferences for anyone else. Like I said, I have Kas in that tier, not because his production/etc. would justify it, but because I like him and his player archetype better than Ace/Tre for example. If you like the stuff that Kon brings more than the others then I don't see a problem with having him in the same tier. This is all subjective.
Good thoughts here regarding Tiers.

I think my simple definition of Tiers is what the likely trajectory of a player appears to be going in to the draft based on character traits, athleticism, performance, stats,

Tier 1 = Alpha, franchise player regular all star
Tier 2 = Potential all star
Tier 3 = High level starter
Tier 4 = Role Player
Tier 5+ = Fodder
 
Comparing the top NBA draft prospects best consecutive 10-game stretch in college basketball this season:

Cooper Flagg - 23.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 57/47/85 splits

Dylan Harper - 23.8 PPG, 5 RPG, 4.4 APG, 51/37/81 splits

Ace Bailey - 23.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG 1.9 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 49/45/72 splits

Tre Johnson - 24.6 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1 SPG, 44/41/92 splits

VJ Edgecombe - 18.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 48/41/85 splits

Kon Knueppel - 17.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 54/46/92 splits

Jeremiah Fears - 21.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 42/33/87 splits

Collin Murray-Boyles - 21 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.6 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 59% FG, 75% FT

Kasparas Jakucionis - 20 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1 SPG, 51/46/89 splits

Khaman Maluach - 10.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 73% FG, 93% FT

Derik Queen - 19.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 1 SPG, 53% FG, 83% FT
Now do the worst 10 game stretch.
 
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