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Game thread..Pelicans @jazz.... tank tested

The Jazz should win this one, but based on what we've seen so far that doesn't mean anything. I somehow wouldn't be surprised if Tyreke Evans has a monster game against the Jazz after struggling so far this season.
 
b_line said:
My worry about the chance of getting the 5th pick is this: I view the draft as 1, 2, 3 being Parker, Randle and Wiggins, in no particular order. After that, do you see a surefire superstar? I see Dante Exum being very good, but not surefire like the other three, and then 5th, is there a player as good as any in the top 4? I don't really think there is. But we have a whole college season to see that.

So, in summation, Jazz need to tank the hell out of this season, and ensure a top 4 pick with their record. The other thing we need to do is hire some linebackers to play for ten day contracts when we play the warriors, and get lucky with the ping pong balls on that pick. We can have ourselves a superstar, and another all star with the GSW pick. Just count it as payback for the way Mark Jackson treated Stockton, and the way those guys immorally tanked one year. (Is what we are doing this year any better morally?)
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I don't disagree with any of that. I want the Jazz to get #1 pick because I really want Wiggins. But, since the lottery is a game of odds, there is no need to stress out over finishing in last place, let alone rooting for the other team every single game. I think the long term damage to the team from a horrendous season far outweighs any potential benefit the Jazz receive from slightly better lottery odds. I'm surprised I'm one of very few who see it that way. Most seem to believe that the addition of a single potential all star will magically transform a 10-72 team to a championship contender. You better hope a healthy Jazz is much better than we've seen so far, because otherwise, count on being a bottom feeder for at least several more years.
 
Siro said:
I'm not sure finishing in last place is any better than finishing with second or third worst record. In fact, I like third worst best. If Jazz finish 28th in the league, they have roughly equal chances at any of the top 3 pick, with a slightly higher chance at the 4th pick. Finish in first place gives them a higher chance to land the first pick, but 35% of landing the forth (compared to only 22% of landing 4th pick for third to last finish). And given the fact there are at least 3 amazing prospects competing for top pick, I don't see what the fuss is all about. Finishing the season with something like 10 wins will ensure we have a team that doesn't care much about winning, full of players waiting for their opportunity to leave. And no 19 year old can magically change that.
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The reason you have a lower chance of getting the 4th pick if you have the 3rd worst record is that you have a chance of getting the 5th or 6th pick (which you don't when you have the worst record). Sheesh.
 
Some of y'all don't pay attention to tanking teams each year.

Teams do some crazy things in the name of the tank at the end of the season, and I'm not sure the Jazz are willing to get down and dirty like that.

We need to lose as many of these early season games as possible. Remember, we are tanking N00bs and veteran tankers could easily out tank us down the stretch.

If you think starting 0-8 means we can start being careless and adding wins, you aint ready to join the Tank Nation.
 
I'll be at the game tonight. Hopefully the Jazz can finally get a win. I'll also be at Monday's game, when if they still haven't picked a win, the Jazz will be trying to avoid setting a new franchise-worst start of 0-12.
 
Siro said:
What I'm saying is, finishing in last place far from guarantees the top pick. It only happened twice since lottery rules changed in the 90s. The difference between finishing dead last and finishing with third worst record is that the former guarantees a top 4 picks, while the latter nets you a top 6 (and the odds of 3rd landing the 6th pick is only 4%, so pretty much guarantees a top 5 pick). It is a trivial difference since the draft has several superstar prospects, and we cannot know where they end up in the future.

I hope you feel less misled.
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The diference between 3rd and 5th is far from trivial imo.

It is misleading because it makes it sound like the odds are more similar than they are. The worst team has a %35 chance of 4th or later. The 3rd worst team has a 52% chance of 4th or later. To put it another way the waorst team has a %65 chance at top 3 while the third worst has only a %48. The worst team has a significant statistical advantage in the lotto over the the 3rd worst. so yeah the quote below is misleading.

Siro said:
I'm not sure finishing in last place is any better than finishing with second or third worst record. In fact, I like third worst best. If Jazz finish 28th in the league, they have roughly equal chances at any of the top 3 pick, with a slightly higher chance at the 4th pick. Finish in first place gives them a higher chance to land the first pick, but 35% of landing the forth (compared to only 22% of landing 4th pick for third to last finish). And given the fact there are at least 3 amazing prospects competing for top pick, I don't see what the fuss is all about. Finishing the season with something like 10 wins will ensure we have a team that doesn't care much about winning, full of players waiting for their opportunity to leave. And no 19 year old can magically change that.
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Also there are more teams that will be "competing" for the 3rd worst so a single win could drop us to 4th or even 5th worst record.
 
All this silly Laker and draft position talk in a gamethread?! Boo!!!

GO JAZZ!!!!!
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
The reason you have a lower chance of getting the 4th pick if you have the 3rd worst record is that you have a chance of getting the 5th or 6th pick (which you don't when you have the worst record). Sheesh.
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This has been mentioned several times, and I've already responded to it.
 
Siro said:
I don't disagree with any of that. I want the Jazz to get #1 pick because I really want Wiggins. But, since the lottery is a game of odds, there is no need to stress out over finishing in last place, let alone rooting for the other team every single game. I think the long term damage to the team from a horrendous season far outweighs any potential benefit the Jazz receive from slightly better lottery odds. I'm surprised I'm one of very few who see it that way. Most seem to believe that the addition of a single potential all star will magically transform a 10-72 team to a championship contender. You better hope a healthy Jazz is much better than we've seen so far, because otherwise, count on being a bottom feeder for at least several more years.
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So you think that a 23-win team will suffer so much less long-term damage than a 20-win team that you're willing to risk dropping from a top-4 guaranteed to top-6? Going from 100% odds of a top-4 to 70% is NOT "slightly better".
 
bordelais7 said:
So you think that a 23-win team will suffer so much less long-term damage than a 20-win team that you're willing to risk dropping from a top-4 guaranteed to top-6? Going from 100% odds of a top-4 to 70% is NOT "slightly better".
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This^

Would be absolutely devastating to tank the year away but still fall out of the top 4.
 
We need to show our support for the tank. That means butts in seats. The best time to show our enthusiasm is after a nationally televised event showing off the prospects while the jazz are winless. That is tonight, boys. Buy a ticket, go to the game, stay til it's over and show the FO we're behind them.
 
UGLI baby said:
This^

Would be absolutely devastating to tank the year away but still fall out of the top 4.
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This times 1000. We have committed to a strategy. Now let's do it. I hope Lindsey is a lot more committed to his plan than some of you are. The good thing is that it's pretty obvious that he is.
 
UGLI baby said:
Some of y'all don't pay attention to tanking teams each year.

Teams do some crazy things in the name of the tank at the end of the season, and I'm not sure the Jazz are willing to get down and dirty like that.

We need to lose as many of these early season games as possible. Remember, we are tanking N00bs and veteran tankers could easily out tank us down the stretch.

If you think starting 0-8 means we can start being careless and adding wins, you aint ready to join the Tank Nation.
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This.

We will win games later when we are healthy and our schedule gets easier.
Now is the time to lose.

Also, like someone else said, if we are gonna win let it be against playoff teams that are not a threat to The Tank.
Don't want to beat the pelicans cause they are one unibrow injury from tanking against us
 
bordelais7 said:
So you think that a 23-win team will suffer so much less long-term damage than a 20-win team that you're willing to risk dropping from a top-4 guaranteed to top-6? Going from 100% odds of a top-4 to 70% is NOT "slightly better".
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You're strawmanning my argument. If it comes down to a couple of games, then of course it would be better to finish last. But so far, this Jazz team doesn't look like it can beat anyone. I don't have much hope that the return of Burke will make the Jazz a lot better. So rooting for the Jazz to lose every game doesn't make much sense. It'll demolish the players' confidence. It'll decrease the chances the core sticks together. It'll cast doubt on whether the core is worth keeping together to begin with. It'll ruin a culture of competitiveness and hard work that gave the Jazz quite the reputation among NBA teams. In short, the current level of play won't cut it, regardless of where we end up in the lottery.
 
Siro said:
You're strawmanning my argument. If it comes down to a couple of games, then of course it would be better to finish last. But so far, this Jazz team doesn't look like it can beat anyone. I don't have much hope that the return of Burke will make the Jazz a lot better. So rooting for the Jazz to lose every game doesn't make much sense. It'll demolish the players' confidence. It'll decrease the chances the core sticks together. It'll cast doubt on whether the core is worth keeping together to begin with. It'll ruin a culture of competitiveness and hard work that gave the Jazz quite the reputation among NBA teams. In short, the current level of play won't cut it, regardless of where we end up in the lottery.
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I agree with that. I am rooting for a win tonight. 1 in every 8 games means only 10 wins. I think that would be a more than sufficient tank job.
 
Siro said:
You're strawmanning my argument. If it comes down to a couple of games, then of course it would be better to finish last. But so far, this Jazz team doesn't look like it can beat anyone. I don't have much hope that the return of Burke will make the Jazz a lot better. So rooting for the Jazz to lose every game doesn't make much sense. It'll demolish the players' confidence. It'll decrease the chances the core sticks together. It'll cast doubt on whether the core is worth keeping together to begin with. It'll ruin a culture of competitiveness and hard work that gave the Jazz quite the reputation among NBA teams. In short, the current level of play won't cut it, regardless of where we end up in the lottery.
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The ONLY good argument for tanking is that we should get the worst record in the league this year. We don't need to be historically bad to do that. The argument you are giving is that we need to be just a little bit better. It is roughly equivalent to saying "playoffs are great, and being a top 4 seed is great" year in and year out. If we are not consistently winning our division, then we probably have no chance at winning a title. The same goes for tanking. If we are not "winning the tank" then what the hell are we doing it for?
 
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