Yep. I got blasted for saying the same a couple months ago.
GSW Draft Pick Watch
- Thread starter orangello
- Start date
Yep. I got blasted for saying the same a couple months ago.
Brown Notes
Well-Known Member
Funny, I totally disagree. This group is so infused with youth it would take time even with an established HOF coach to get them to all be on the same page. To keep burdening that with more youth right away seems counterproductive to the goal of establishing a system of the Utah Jazz.
By the end of next year hopefully this will have occurred and we'll be ready for one more big talent. I know with all the hype I'll be in the huge minority here but I'd trade these picks away. If for nothing else than picks in a year or two.
To me it is looking more and more likely that the Jazz will make the palyoffs and get the GSW pick around 9. That will give us 1 more young guy and the ones we have some playoff experience. Who knows, the Jazz may even win a series or two.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict we'll not see either of our picks play in Utah. I think KOC sees the
need to have some veterans on the team. Watson, Howard and Tinsley have been steadying forces, even if their skills aren't what they used to be. I think O'Connor will use some combination of Memo's TPE, the GS pick and the expirings of Harris and Jefferson to bring in vet starters at SF and PG.
I say the Jazz make the Playoffs and we land the GSW pick. They beat N.O. last night.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
I guess I'm in the minority as well. As good as our young guys are, I'm guessing one of the four will ever become and All-NBAer. The other 3 look to be very good, but won't be able to put the franchise on their back. We have a ton of assets and are going to have a ton of cap flexibility coming up. I'd much rather package a combo using our assets (draft pick(s), Memo TPE, Al, Harris, I hesitate to list Millsap - but for a star I'd do it) to get a bonafide star in here. Or if KOC does have his eye on a top pick this year, then I'd be fine trading up as well.
Brown Notes
Well-Known Member
That's what I see too. There are too many terrible teams and GS still has a lot of good players. Also IMO Mark Jackson is going to be drooling over Marshall. He is going to want a young pure point to mold.
I think the Jazz might have a problem of having too many good assets/young players, but if the worst that can happen is you get to take a lot of shots on young players and see if any pan out, then the Jazz are in great position. If 2012 wasn't supposed to be such a better draft than 2013, and if I didn't feel like the Jazz will certainly be getting lower draft picks next year if they don't get them this year then I might be on the "it's probably better to not load more young players onto the team" train. However, the Jazz need the best opportunities possible to get talent that they can really build around and this year is probably a far better year to accumulate that.
Stars Fan
Well-Known Member
This^
With the strike threat a lot of talent stayed in school last year, and are looking to enter the draft this year. Which may make 2012 the best, deepest draft in years. Although you never know, there may be kids who will stay another year for just that reason, i.e. everyone else is coming out which would lower their overall standing.
Question for those in the know...aren't NBA contracts based solely on draft position? So if your $ numbers fall off the chart because the draft is so deep some younger kids may still opt to go 2013.
I could see the Jazz drafting a bunch of Euros (after this year) too stash, like Spurs have done.
Spurs also love to draft guys from South America. So perhaps we draft a Brazilian. Argentina's talent seems to have dried up.
Interesting research and simulations run by Basketball Prospectus, with team rosters (but not team motivation) updated after the deadline:
https://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2168
Short version is that 17.3% chance GS keeps pick, 82.7% chance Jazz get it.
"As noted earlier, we can't account for teams' motivation the rest of the season. The Warriors front office surely wants to keep this pick, though it's unclear how much that will trickle down to Mark Jackson and his team. To some extent, it may be too late. The Warriors have been a bit too good to likely slip into the bottom seven draft picks and keep this pick."
For the Jazz' own pick/playoff chances, simulations say 24.6% chance the Jazz make the playoffs, 75.4% chance they keep their pick.
"The Jazz owes the Timberwolves a first-round pick from the Al Jefferson trade if it makes the playoffs this year. In this simulation that happened a quarter of the time; given how Portland is overrated, you can probably boost those chances to closer to one in three."
https://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2168
Short version is that 17.3% chance GS keeps pick, 82.7% chance Jazz get it.
"As noted earlier, we can't account for teams' motivation the rest of the season. The Warriors front office surely wants to keep this pick, though it's unclear how much that will trickle down to Mark Jackson and his team. To some extent, it may be too late. The Warriors have been a bit too good to likely slip into the bottom seven draft picks and keep this pick."
For the Jazz' own pick/playoff chances, simulations say 24.6% chance the Jazz make the playoffs, 75.4% chance they keep their pick.
"The Jazz owes the Timberwolves a first-round pick from the Al Jefferson trade if it makes the playoffs this year. In this simulation that happened a quarter of the time; given how Portland is overrated, you can probably boost those chances to closer to one in three."
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Biggest game of the season Saturday: Sacramento at Golden State.
C'mon GSW, win on accident, if you have to ..
Xsy
Well-Known Member
The Warriors would have to go (give or take) 5-22 since the Monta trade in order to keep their pick. They're 2-5 since the Monta trade so far. '
This doesn't account for other teams' success or tanking, so its definitely rough, but its looking pretty promising. They should have started tanking a long time ago.
This doesn't account for other teams' success or tanking, so its definitely rough, but its looking pretty promising. They should have started tanking a long time ago.
spycam1
Well-Known Member
It's on NBATV tonight, in case any of you didn't know. I'll probably watch the end if it's close.
Nothing would be better than a GSW win right now.
Nothing.
Nothing.