When I woke up this morning and read that the initial diagnosis for Dante was a ruptured ACL, I almost choked my coffee.
The short vine yesterday didn't really show the landing, where Exum's injury happened. Since no more vines came up and Dante returned to the bench seemingly in high spirits, I was thinking: Potentially clickbait when "only" a minor injury that could be handled by spending some extra time with the physiologist and taking some days off.
The next thought this morning that ran through my head has to do with the socialist structure of the NBA that I really love from a competitive standpoint. When's Hayward's contract expiring? He signed last summer, player option after 3, so 2 more years. That's both good and tough, as the Jazz do either need "Hair Gordon" or a star via free agency or via trade.
You don't want to trade for stars, unless the other team doesn't realize he's going to become one, as it means giving up assets in return. Free agency is connected with a lot of uncertainty and if Gordon bolts in the future it's because the team isn't moving close enough to contention. And the very same reason will prevent the Jazz from picking up other stars via free agency.
Dante rehabbing this year will mean, that the Jazz probably need a kill comeback from him in year 3. That's tough when you're out of rhythm. They can bridge it this year by getting a definite answer on Trey and either ruin his trade value completely or build it up again. But since there's so many free agent PGs right now, there's only a slim chance they'd get anything better than a low 1st rounder right now. So ruining his value even further wouldn't be much of an issue.
But it's absolutely paramount that the Jazz are a playoff team in the summer of '17, when they negotiate with unrestricted Gordon. The projected $110M salary cap that summer means that literally every team has max salary slots available. Gordon will be 27 by then, entering his prime barring some catastrophic injury. Most NBA players want to win at some point of their career. And if the Jazz by then aren't already a playoff team with the upside to secure home court advantage the following year, there's a good chance that Hayward will look harder at other options. Especially since the 5th year shouldn't carry that much weight, when he can get another contract at age 30 if he switches teams. At that age most teams still like taking a risk even when they know the age 33 and higher seasons will most likely get them questionable value for the money spent.
What works in favor of retaining Hayward? The late surge last season should result in more national TV appearances and if Hayward can carry a team to a good midseason result, he's very likely to earn an allstar nomination. That's important since he's not that well marketed yet on a national scale. If the Jazz can help him build a personal brand despite being located in Utah and being away from contention, this weakens major market's free agency pitches and his agent Mark Bartelstein isn't the biggest fish in the pond on the agent market. Gordon is his biggest client with Brad Beal showing promise as well. There shouldn't be too much "Dan Fegan" action going on. Other than Taj Gibson, he doesn't have other '17 free agent clients that have a wide array of value where he'd attempt to make a power play by trying to pair Gordon up with someone less valuable. The Bulls are also one of the more dangerous veteran teams that could make a strong run for Gordon that year. They have Gibson's rights and depending on how they deal with other expiring contracts from very old players(Gasol, Dunleavy) or previously injured(Rose), they could make a run at him and clear cap space.
Other Eastern Conference teams that could be dangerous include the Hawks, who are building a winner's reputation with good coaching, while still maintaining flexibility. ATL has a lot of untapped marketing potential(one of the biggest markets in the USA and quickly growing due to Budenholzer's success) and if the Hawks can continue to rise, they are in position to negotiate with him.
Boston's and Indiana's pitches are more volatile, as both teams need improvement to compete with what the Jazz's contention window offers Hayward. Indiana seems too strong to miss the playoffs in the East, but they are weak in a lot of spots to contend long term, unless they can secure other free agents.
Boston needs internal improvement before any high profile free agent considers them seriously.
The biggest contender in the East may be the Miami HEAT though. Never underestimate the pitch of beachfront houses and Pat Riley. The Heat have good talent long term and depending how they develop, age and stay healthy, they may be back in the picture by then.
Milwaukee being the Jazz's mirror Eastern team could also try to negotiate with Gordon depending on how the team develops. Like the Jazz they have a lot of pieces in place. Now they just gotta do the next step together.
Bottom line, almost every team has cap space. 2 years is a long timespan, a lot can change. But it's not that far away that it's impossible to say some teams are more likely to be in a good position than others. I don't even want to evaluate every team's current cap position connected with their on court promise. It's too far in the future and other teams will lose players to free agency and injuries as well. JUst wanted to illustrate some of the Eastern teams on the rise and how their current roster could need a Hayward.
In the end it's up to the Jazz's development. Losing Dante to a long term injury just means it's become harder to secure Hayward, as it usually throws a player back in his development curve. Before this happened Dante had a good shot to become a both promising talent and someone who already upped his contributions by that point enough to both bring the Jazz deeper into the playoffs and sell the vision that future development may make that team even more dangerous. The injury doesn't mean that Exum can't have a killer comeback in '16-17, but it's made it less likely. ANd that presents a threat for the Jazz.
They pursue the blueprint to build a new age Pistons contender. They amassed potential high level 2nd options with Hayward, Exum and Favors on the offensive end. A high impact specialist with Gobert and a wild card named Alec Burks. Trey Lyles has considerable upside to develop in time and even though they likely whiffed on Trey Burke that roster is one where even Utah can add good role players by overpaying slightly and still be in line to be the next Memphis with less exploitable flaws.
That's all you can ask from your team. Trying to put themselves in position to contend and realize when it's time to rebuild if something catastrophic happens. After all there are usually less than 5 transcendent players in the league at a time, that will have enough traction on the free agency market, where you can just retool for a decade until you find the right mix.
Even though recent champions may suggest you need that transcendent player to become a champion, I think the main reason for the Miami teams were their big 3 paired with the necessary level of front office performance. It's also rare that these kind of teams occur, even though the increased cap could make it possible for a short time.
The Spurs dynasty was built on sacrifice and once they lose their poster child for that approach, it may be hard to duplicate it. They also missed out on a lot of potential good fits. Having Aldridge will help them obviously. But he's 30, and even though Leonard is very young, they'll need to find more high level and high character players and at some point a successor for the coaching spot. So there's no guarantee they'll remain a juggernaut in 2 years. Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant will have a lot of gravity on other free agents regardless where they'll play provided they are healthy. James Harden's Rockets and Curry's Warriors look like they're a lock to contend for the foreseeable future. But what other truly special players are currently playing?
These special breed of talent that requires a very unique approach defensively are hard to come by. Most of the time they're obvious in their first years. Others need time to carve out their niche like Paul, Curry and Harden to become skill based game changers. Some of these prodigies will lack longevity due to how the game changes or more likely when they can't stay healthy. There's a good window for teams without these faces to contend even though they have a smaller margin for error. The '13 Pacers came close. Utah hopefully can be in that conversation too.
But now in order to stay on an upswing the Jazz need unexpected contributions more than ever.
The short vine yesterday didn't really show the landing, where Exum's injury happened. Since no more vines came up and Dante returned to the bench seemingly in high spirits, I was thinking: Potentially clickbait when "only" a minor injury that could be handled by spending some extra time with the physiologist and taking some days off.
The next thought this morning that ran through my head has to do with the socialist structure of the NBA that I really love from a competitive standpoint. When's Hayward's contract expiring? He signed last summer, player option after 3, so 2 more years. That's both good and tough, as the Jazz do either need "Hair Gordon" or a star via free agency or via trade.
You don't want to trade for stars, unless the other team doesn't realize he's going to become one, as it means giving up assets in return. Free agency is connected with a lot of uncertainty and if Gordon bolts in the future it's because the team isn't moving close enough to contention. And the very same reason will prevent the Jazz from picking up other stars via free agency.
Dante rehabbing this year will mean, that the Jazz probably need a kill comeback from him in year 3. That's tough when you're out of rhythm. They can bridge it this year by getting a definite answer on Trey and either ruin his trade value completely or build it up again. But since there's so many free agent PGs right now, there's only a slim chance they'd get anything better than a low 1st rounder right now. So ruining his value even further wouldn't be much of an issue.
But it's absolutely paramount that the Jazz are a playoff team in the summer of '17, when they negotiate with unrestricted Gordon. The projected $110M salary cap that summer means that literally every team has max salary slots available. Gordon will be 27 by then, entering his prime barring some catastrophic injury. Most NBA players want to win at some point of their career. And if the Jazz by then aren't already a playoff team with the upside to secure home court advantage the following year, there's a good chance that Hayward will look harder at other options. Especially since the 5th year shouldn't carry that much weight, when he can get another contract at age 30 if he switches teams. At that age most teams still like taking a risk even when they know the age 33 and higher seasons will most likely get them questionable value for the money spent.
What works in favor of retaining Hayward? The late surge last season should result in more national TV appearances and if Hayward can carry a team to a good midseason result, he's very likely to earn an allstar nomination. That's important since he's not that well marketed yet on a national scale. If the Jazz can help him build a personal brand despite being located in Utah and being away from contention, this weakens major market's free agency pitches and his agent Mark Bartelstein isn't the biggest fish in the pond on the agent market. Gordon is his biggest client with Brad Beal showing promise as well. There shouldn't be too much "Dan Fegan" action going on. Other than Taj Gibson, he doesn't have other '17 free agent clients that have a wide array of value where he'd attempt to make a power play by trying to pair Gordon up with someone less valuable. The Bulls are also one of the more dangerous veteran teams that could make a strong run for Gordon that year. They have Gibson's rights and depending on how they deal with other expiring contracts from very old players(Gasol, Dunleavy) or previously injured(Rose), they could make a run at him and clear cap space.
Other Eastern Conference teams that could be dangerous include the Hawks, who are building a winner's reputation with good coaching, while still maintaining flexibility. ATL has a lot of untapped marketing potential(one of the biggest markets in the USA and quickly growing due to Budenholzer's success) and if the Hawks can continue to rise, they are in position to negotiate with him.
Boston's and Indiana's pitches are more volatile, as both teams need improvement to compete with what the Jazz's contention window offers Hayward. Indiana seems too strong to miss the playoffs in the East, but they are weak in a lot of spots to contend long term, unless they can secure other free agents.
Boston needs internal improvement before any high profile free agent considers them seriously.
The biggest contender in the East may be the Miami HEAT though. Never underestimate the pitch of beachfront houses and Pat Riley. The Heat have good talent long term and depending how they develop, age and stay healthy, they may be back in the picture by then.
Milwaukee being the Jazz's mirror Eastern team could also try to negotiate with Gordon depending on how the team develops. Like the Jazz they have a lot of pieces in place. Now they just gotta do the next step together.
Bottom line, almost every team has cap space. 2 years is a long timespan, a lot can change. But it's not that far away that it's impossible to say some teams are more likely to be in a good position than others. I don't even want to evaluate every team's current cap position connected with their on court promise. It's too far in the future and other teams will lose players to free agency and injuries as well. JUst wanted to illustrate some of the Eastern teams on the rise and how their current roster could need a Hayward.
In the end it's up to the Jazz's development. Losing Dante to a long term injury just means it's become harder to secure Hayward, as it usually throws a player back in his development curve. Before this happened Dante had a good shot to become a both promising talent and someone who already upped his contributions by that point enough to both bring the Jazz deeper into the playoffs and sell the vision that future development may make that team even more dangerous. The injury doesn't mean that Exum can't have a killer comeback in '16-17, but it's made it less likely. ANd that presents a threat for the Jazz.
They pursue the blueprint to build a new age Pistons contender. They amassed potential high level 2nd options with Hayward, Exum and Favors on the offensive end. A high impact specialist with Gobert and a wild card named Alec Burks. Trey Lyles has considerable upside to develop in time and even though they likely whiffed on Trey Burke that roster is one where even Utah can add good role players by overpaying slightly and still be in line to be the next Memphis with less exploitable flaws.
That's all you can ask from your team. Trying to put themselves in position to contend and realize when it's time to rebuild if something catastrophic happens. After all there are usually less than 5 transcendent players in the league at a time, that will have enough traction on the free agency market, where you can just retool for a decade until you find the right mix.
Even though recent champions may suggest you need that transcendent player to become a champion, I think the main reason for the Miami teams were their big 3 paired with the necessary level of front office performance. It's also rare that these kind of teams occur, even though the increased cap could make it possible for a short time.
The Spurs dynasty was built on sacrifice and once they lose their poster child for that approach, it may be hard to duplicate it. They also missed out on a lot of potential good fits. Having Aldridge will help them obviously. But he's 30, and even though Leonard is very young, they'll need to find more high level and high character players and at some point a successor for the coaching spot. So there's no guarantee they'll remain a juggernaut in 2 years. Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant will have a lot of gravity on other free agents regardless where they'll play provided they are healthy. James Harden's Rockets and Curry's Warriors look like they're a lock to contend for the foreseeable future. But what other truly special players are currently playing?
These special breed of talent that requires a very unique approach defensively are hard to come by. Most of the time they're obvious in their first years. Others need time to carve out their niche like Paul, Curry and Harden to become skill based game changers. Some of these prodigies will lack longevity due to how the game changes or more likely when they can't stay healthy. There's a good window for teams without these faces to contend even though they have a smaller margin for error. The '13 Pacers came close. Utah hopefully can be in that conversation too.
But now in order to stay on an upswing the Jazz need unexpected contributions more than ever.
