If the Jazz are blown out tonight...

[The Midnight]

A lot of posters seem to be falling back on two explanations of the poor results so far this season: The Jazz are playing 4 on 5 (Tinsley and JLIII at the 1) and the bench sucks. Unfortunately,

1. The Jazz were 20-12 in the games Tinsley started last season.

2. Jazz +/- per 48 minutes

Team: -11.2

RJ: -21.9
Gordo: -19.3
Favs: -16.8
Tinsley: -15.7
Kanter: -13.1

Tinsley/Gordo/RJ/Favs/Kanter lineup: -29.0


The bench has been bad, the starters have been terrible. The poor play of the starters can not all be blamed on Jamaal Tinsley/JLIII. Our young players aren't nearly as good as some thought they were. It's unlikely any of them become better players than Al or Millsap.

Whoah!!! What?!?!

 

[The Midnight]

Kanter is already a better defender and rebounder than Millsap, and a better defender than Al. His offense is still developing, but I think he'll be considered better than both Al or Millsap by the end of the season.

Favors is already a better defender and rebounder than either Sap or Al. That's a very important consideration if the Jazz have other players on the floor who can score the ball.

I don't think having Millsap on the team instead of Kanter or Favors would add much to our ability to win games. He was never a go-to scorer, and he became a liability on defense and on the boards. Having Al would help though. The Jazz relied on him to score a lot every night.

This.

 

[cowhide]

I disagree. The Jazz could have fired Corbin after the Allstar break and made Horny intern coach. Then after the Jazz make the playoffs, make Horny the head coach.

Did you forget that the Jazz were still in playoff contentions? What reason would they have given the public? The Jazz as an organization just doesn't work that way regardless of what you belief.

 

[GVC]

Whoah!!! What?!?!

The Jazz's most used lineup last season was Tinsley-Foye-Marvin-Millsap-Al. Those 5 were outscored by 6.7 points per 48 minutes.

The Jazz's most used lineup this season has been Tinsley-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter. They've been outscored by 29.0 points per 48 minutes.


What do you think accounts for the disparity? How much of it is bad luck? How much is the quality of the opposition and homecourt considerations? How much of it is talent? How would you distribute the talent effect by position?

 

[Jeditiger]

Did you forget that the Jazz were still in playoff contentions? What reason would they have given the public? The Jazz as an organization just doesn't work that way regardless of what you belief.

Shh! "Playoff Contention" is bad wurds here on Jazzfanz. Here, that's interpreted as "mediocrity".

 

[The Midnight]

The Jazz's most used lineup last season was Tinsley-Foye-Marvin-Millsap-Al. Those 5 were outscored by 6.7 points per 48 minutes.

The Jazz's most used lineup this season has been Tinsley-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter. They've been outscored by 29.0 points per 48 minutes.


What do you think accounts for the disparity? How much of it is bad luck? How much is the quality of the opposition and homecourt considerations? How much of it is talent? How would you distribute the talent effect by position?

Your mistake was saying that Kanter won't become anything more than Millsap / Jefferson - what info/stats did you use for this prediction?

 

[green]

Didn't hear what else the Harden/Kanter deal included. There would have been more pieces. The Millsap/Bledsoe deal was rumored to ALSO include Burks. And then the story was the Clippers took Bledsoe off the market because they weren't certain Paul was going to re-sign. So cross that deal off the list. Rumors are just that...we never hear the full details unless an actual trade happens and some of the terms are often much different than first thought. And for what it's worth, I'd rather have Kanter right now. Sure he's making mistakes. But franchise 5's are VERY hard to find. And Bledsoe? Well, that's really a moot point if, in fact, LA DID pull him off the market last season. What would it have taken this summer? Not sure. But I'd like to see what Burke gives us and compare a full year of stats for Trey vs. Bledose. Then, of course, let's see what Bledsoe demands as a FA. The lineup above is nice, but that's about all you can afford going forward. All those players are VERY, VERY expensive. Personally, I'm more in favor of the Hayward/Favors/Kanter/Burke/(Wiggins or Parker) starting five, with Burks off the bench and supported by Neto, Gobert, the GS pick and 1-2 more good FA's or player(s)s acquired via trade on a short-term deal. Then, in 4-5 years, 1-2 players will likely have to be traded due to luxury tax limitations. But, Lindsey has already started to prepare by acquiring additional picks.

So, let's say the Kanter deal included the pick that got us Burke. I'd trade Burke and Kanter for Harden.

Bledsoe for Millsap and Burks? Done.

Our starting lineup is still:

Bledsoe
Harden
Hayward
Favors

With potentially Dwight Howard.

You wouldn't give up Burks and Burke for that?

My point is this. The Jazz had a TON of opportunities to improve and decided to do nothing. They had BETTER get Parker or Wiggins or a super star out of all of this. If they don't, then they wasted the last five years and we really are the Timberwolves.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The Jazz's most used lineup last season was Tinsley-Foye-Marvin-Millsap-Al. Those 5 were outscored by 6.7 points per 48 minutes.

The Jazz's most used lineup this season has been Tinsley-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter. They've been outscored by 29.0 points per 48 minutes.


What do you think accounts for the disparity? How much of it is bad luck? How much is the quality of the opposition and homecourt considerations? How much of it is talent? How would you distribute the talent effect by position?

Tinsley isn't as spry as he was last year. Richard Jefferson is a step back from Marvin Williams. But I think a big factor is the Jazz's lack of spacing. There's no shooter on the floor if Hayward is handling the ball. Kanter is even shooting 20-footers to create some semblance of spacing. Then even if there is more spacing, there's no one in the post to replace Al's offense from last year, in part because Kanter is often playing out on the floor. The Jazz relied on Al Jeffs and Foye to set up their limited offense last year. Losing both, then losing Trey Burke, set our offense back to square one. The Jazz can't score enough points to win games.

However, bring in Trey Burke to handle the ball and shoot, let Hayward spot up and play off the ball, bring in an SF with a better shooting percentage than Richard Jefferson (which should basically be every other option we have), and I think the spacing and offensive flow will be better. Both Kanter and Favors will score from the post because they'll have room to operate.

As it stands, the Jazz are an average defensive and rebounding team, which is an achievement for any squad that has Tinsley and Richard Jefferson playing major minutes.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Our young players aren't nearly as good as some thought they were. It's unlikely any of them become better players than Al or Millsap.

I was kind of with you up to that sentence. The problem with +/- is that it's achieved as a team. I'd like to see the +/- for Durant and others who have been the stars on bad teams. RJ and Tinsley are nowhere near being NBA starters. It is like playing 4 on 5 on offense. The only disturbing part to me is the lack of effort the starters have begun to show. AS for your last sentence, I agree. Players NEVER improve after the age of 22. Millsap was an all-star when he entered the league. And Jefferson is such a shining star, he'll have statues erected outside the arenas in Minnesota, Utah and Charlotte.

 

[GVC]

Your mistake was saying that Kanter won't become anything more than Millsap / Jefferson

I was trying to be provocative. I think there's a decent chance Kanter and/or Hayward develop into better players than Al.

Tinsley isn't as spry as he was last year. Richard Jefferson is a step back from Marvin Williams. But I think a big factor is the Jazz's lack of spacing. There's no shooter on the floor if Hayward is handling the ball. Kanter is even shooting 20-footers to create some semblance of spacing. Then even if there is more spacing, there's no one in the post to replace Al's offense from last year, in part because Kanter is often playing out on the floor. The Jazz relied on Al Jeffs and Foye to set up their limited offense last year. Losing both, then losing Trey Burke, set our offense back to square one. The Jazz can't score enough points to win games.

However, bring in Trey Burke to handle the ball and shoot, let Hayward spot up and play off the ball, bring in an SF with a better shooting percentage than Richard Jefferson (which should basically be every other option we have), and I think the spacing and offensive flow will be better. Both Kanter and Favors will score from the post because they'll have room to operate.

As it stands, the Jazz are an average defensive and rebounding team, which is an achievement for any squad that has Tinsley and Richard Jefferson playing major minutes.

What accounts for the lack of spacing? 2013Jamaal and Jefferson hitting at a much lower rate from 3 than 2012Jamaal and Marvin last season? Is Hayward providing more or less spacing than Foye? What of Favors' contributions?

How would you rate Kanter-Favors against Al-Paul on offense? How much worse would they have to be as a duo IF you think they've provided equivalent or better defense? Have they provided better defense?

 

[GVC]

I was kind of with you up to that sentence. The problem with +/- is that it's achieved as a team. I'd like to see the +/- for Durant and others who have been the stars on bad teams. RJ and Tinsley are nowhere near being NBA starters. It is like playing 4 on 5 on offense.

Sounds like what people said about Tinsley and Marvin last season...Perhaps some of the blame should be shared by Kanter/Favors/Hayward.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Sounds like what people said about Tinsley and Marvin last season...Perhaps some of the blame should be shared by Kanter/Favors/Hayward.

Agree. Hayward was part of that starting group that seemed to always have the Jazz down by 10 pts or more when they left. And Kanters, Favors and Burks (when he played) were - for the most part - dominating their opposing backups. If we're finger-pointing, though, I'd have to say it was more Mo and Foye that let down the starting unit late in the season. The point is, take any player in the league, even superstars like Jordan, Kobe and LeBron. They've all suffered through losing seasons when they didn't have strong supporting casts. As a result, I'll bet their +/'s those seasons were also bad. Conversely, take a token 5th starter on a really good team and he'll probably have an amazing +/- even if he's just an average player.