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Jackpotting Around Podcast: Episode 37 - Keandre Ashley of Hoop Intellect

You literally just posted this:

The case for Tre (which I have made consistently on X and other places) is the off the dribble shooting. He is clearly better at that then Kon. Does Kon improve in that area? Almost surely... just like Tre will improve at his rim finishing (hopefully).

Yeah, Kon will SURELY improve and Tre will HOPEFULLY improve.
Yes because his percentages were trash this year in a tiny sample. Its easier to project a good shooter getting better at that... in part because he was really bad at it. Does he ever get amazing at it... IDK. I presented both sides there. Its also possible that someone good at something has a higher floor than that. He may never have the quick trigger there that Tre does... but he will improve from piss poor to okayish.
 
I would hope Kon would improve his off the dribble shooting. You can’t be much worse than what he did. 3/21 from three OTD. The lack of total attempts is also worrying.
 
I would hope Kon would improve his off the dribble shooting. You can’t be much worse than what he did. 3/21 from three OTD. The lack of total attempts is also worrying.
That is quite literally what I was saying lol but read it how you want.
 
My belief is that its likely easier for a guy who shoots the piss out of the ball to figure out off the dribble shooting than it is for a guy who doesn't get to the rim and struggles to finish to get better at that. I don't think either are impossible of course. I think both Kon and Tre have similar ceilings and the winner of this great debate will be the guy that actually does hit his ceiling (if either do).

My issue the whole times is simply folks dismissing Kon as not even in the conversation... its 100% a conversation... sorry.

That seems right. It's definitely possible for guys to increase their role and usage in the NBA, happens a lot. I don't see nearly as many examples of guys increasing their rim and FT rate, and when they do, it's been related to the first situation where they go through a role shift. I would stand by my earlier point that their "upsides" are about the same. But we all know it's kind of a crap shoot at the end of the day.
 
I don't think that guys should get extra credit for being in tough conferences/leagues, the NBA is going to be a huge step up for anyone, but I do think it's worth questioning how someone looks/production in obviously inferior leagues/conferences.
 
That seems right. It's definitely possible for guys to increase their role and usage in the NBA, happens a lot. I don't see nearly as many examples of guys increasing their rim and FT rate, and when they do, it's been related to the first situation where they go through a role shift. I would stand by my earlier point that their "upsides" are about the same. But we all know it's kind of a crap shoot at the end of the day.
And the off the dribble shooting is really nice if you can leverage it to get rim attempts... its not a way you want to live. Tre and Kon have completely valid cases to be selected at #5.

I can't decide what to do with VJ but sounds like he is the most likely gone by #5. I kind of hope we land on Ace even though I have some big reservations on him. Tre and Kon its a coin flip but Imma stay on the Kon side of the coin (I really have no choice at this point lol). I kind of hope that if Ace isn't there that Ainge can do his trade back magic and get another pick and take whichever guy lands 6/7. I could see Washington doing 6/18 for 5 and I happily take Kon or Tre and take another swing at 18.
 
Tre Johnson within 3 feet - 58/97 (59.8%)

Kon Knueppel within 3 feet - 77/122 (63.1%)

Tre Johnson off the dribble - 72/194 (37.1%)
Off the dribble threes - 38/99 (38.4%)

Kon Knueppel off the dribble - 19/58 (32.8%)
Off the dribble threes - 3/21 (14.3%)
 
I don't think that guys should get extra credit for being in tough conferences/leagues, the NBA is going to be a huge step up for anyone, but I do think it's worth questioning how someone looks/production in obviously inferior leagues/conferences.
Arent those just two different ways to achieve the same goal of differentiating prospects based on level of competition?
 
Tre Johnson within 3 feet - 58/97 (59.8%)

Kon Knueppel within 3 feet - 77/122 (63.1%)

Tre Johnson off the dribble - 72/194 (37.1%)
Off the dribble threes - 38/99 (38.4%)

Kon Knueppel off the dribble - 19/58 (32.8%)
Off the dribble threes - 3/21 (14.3%)
What's Tre on post ups?
 
Arent those just two different ways to achieve the same goal of differentiating prospects based on level of competition?

Yes and no. If you are comparing two players then saying one was in the tougher league makes sense. If you are saying this guy is for sure going to be good because look what he did in this league, then that doesn't make sense. Even the best league is inferior to the NBA.

Make sense?
 
Tre Johnson within 3 feet - 58/97 (59.8%)

Kon Knueppel within 3 feet - 77/122 (63.1%)

Tre Johnson off the dribble - 72/194 (37.1%)
Off the dribble threes - 38/99 (38.4%)

Kon Knueppel off the dribble - 19/58 (32.8%)
Off the dribble threes - 3/21 (14.3%)
Do you have assisted rates?
 
Tre Johnson within 3 feet - 58/97 (59.8%)

Kon Knueppel within 3 feet - 77/122 (63.1%)

Tre Johnson off the dribble - 72/194 (37.1%)
Off the dribble threes - 38/99 (38.4%)

Kon Knueppel off the dribble - 19/58 (32.8%)
Off the dribble threes - 3/21 (14.3%)
And that's why I have said the case for Tre is not athleticism or length... its off the dribble shooting. Kon also has a much higher Ftr. I think Tre is more athletic than Kon in a jump and run sense for sure... there is just nothing on the basketball court you can point to that tells you it is the case... so how much stock do you put into it?
 
Yes and no. If you are comparing two players then saying one was in the tougher league makes sense. If you are saying this guy is for sure going to be good because look what he did in this league, then that doesn't make sense. Even the best league is inferior to the NBA.

Make sense?
Yeah it does. I kinda though we just use that info to compare prospects.. but I guess it could be that some use it to elevate the upside projections.
 
And the off the dribble shooting is really nice if you can leverage it to get rim attempts... its not a way you want to live. Tre and Kon have completely valid cases to be selected at #5.

I can't decide what to do with VJ but sounds like he is the most likely gone by #5. I kind of hope we land on Ace even though I have some big reservations on him. Tre and Kon its a coin flip but Imma stay on the Kon side of the coin (I really have no choice at this point lol). I kind of hope that if Ace isn't there that Ainge can do his trade back magic and get another pick and take whichever guy lands 6/7. I could see Washington doing 6/18 for 5 and I happily take Kon or Tre and take another swing at 18.

In the last week I think I've decided that VJ is the 3rd best guy in this draft (RIP Kas). I'm not sure if I would feel strongly enough to move 21 to get there, but maybe. Tre, Kon, Ace, Fears are in the same tier for me.

I would be in on Ace if I was PHI, but for UTA specifically I might fade him. Don't love him in a tanking situation and think we just make him into Rudy Gay 2.0.
 
My belief is that its likely easier for a guy who shoots the piss out of the ball to figure out off the dribble shooting than it is for a guy who doesn't get to the rim and struggles to finish to get better at that. I don't think either are impossible of course. I think both Kon and Tre have similar ceilings and the winner of this great debate will be the guy that actually does hit his ceiling (if either do).

My issue the whole times is simply folks dismissing Kon as not even in the conversation... its 100% a conversation... sorry.
I think part of why Kon gets dismissed is because it seems like the most of the mocks (like if you made a consensus) have Kon going after the jazz have already picked. Fair or not I think that is part of the reasoning. Same with fears, kas, queen, maluch etc etc
Fears fans probably have an issue with him not being included in this Kon vs Tre convo. Same with Kas fans or maluch fans or whoever.
 
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