John Collins = Marvin Williams

[HermanG]

As the kids would say “it ain’t that deep”. It isn’t that he’s performed horribly… it isn’t that he’s broken… it’s simply he’s just not that good. He’s fine but he’s got his limitations. They were there in Atlanta in multiple roles and iterations. The players you need to fit around John to maximize what he does are rare. He’s a third big who’s paid like a surefire everyday starter.

The plus minus stuff is exaggerated for sure. I swear people forgot about the extreme difference an elite rim protector makes in things like plus minus. Based on plus minus Rudy would look like the mvp in advanced stats. Collins is a horrible rim protector as a center. Lauri really isn’t a rim protecting center… going from shutting off the paint to a full green light makes a huge difference in defense. That is why it will always look bad. If you had a floor spacing rim protector then Collins could play starter minutes and put up his near 20/10 as a roller and spot up shooter. Otherwise he’s just a third big that makes twice as much as he should.

But that is exactly what the water carrying guys reported, and why they put him on the trade block. That he has struggled adapting to Hardy's systems.

I know his on/off being in the bottom 1% defensively has a lot to do with Kessler, but Collins has 220 minutes with Kessler for the season and he has managed to sabotage even Kesslers defensive rating to 10 points higher level than Kessler has with anyone on the entire roster (including spot minute guys). Its not individual 1om1 failures, its that he misses assigments and rotations and the whole defense gets disorganized.

In last 15 games (so during our hot stretch), Kessler has an awesome DRtg with 2 poor individual defenders (George 97.9, Olynyk 96.0), but he still has 116.8 rating with Collins. Only one who comes within 10 points of that is Sexton at 108.0.

This is Kessler 2-man lineup ranked by DRtg.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Couldn't you say that about most of our roster though? Why are his numbers such an outlier?

He plays the least with Walker and when he does play with Walker they both hurt each other's effectiveness

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Collins/Kessler lineups were exclusively against starting units too, so that's part of why the stats look worse.

All the great advanced stats we see out of alternative lineups are lineups that aren't going against opposing teams beat units.

 

[KqWIN]

While I’d agree that JC is not as bad as his +/- stuff suggest (it’s almost impossible to be that bad)….I don’t really buy into this thing that it’s because he’s the counterpart to Kessler. Kessler is good, Collins has been very bad….but nothing more beyond that.

He has been much better inside of the paint with the rotations. I still think Hardy is making a mistake by using him as an outside-in type of player….but it’s been better this way. Ideally, I would to see him used more like a big when Kessler is not on the court.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But that is exactly what the water carrying guys reported, and why they put him on the trade block. That he has struggled adapting to Hardy's systems.

I know his on/off being in the bottom 1% defensively has a lot to do with Kessler, but Collins has 220 minutes with Kessler for the season and he has managed to sabotage even Kesslers defensive rating to 10 points higher level than Kessler has with anyone on the entire roster (including spot minute guys). Its not individual 1om1 failures, its that he misses assigments and rotations and the whole defense gets disorganized.

In last 15 games (so during our hot stretch), Kessler has an awesome DRtg with 2 poor individual defenders (George 97.9, Olynyk 96.0), but he still has 116.8 rating with Collins. Only one who comes within 10 points of that is Sexton at 108.0.

This is Kessler 2-man lineup ranked by DRtg.

View attachment 15724

I'm guessing a bunch of those minutes came in the early part of the season when Walker and everyone was struggling. Not to excuse Collins but a lot of that was about Kessler not being right. The last 15 games is more representative of the issue imo. Its just not a minus 17 type of issue imo its just that JC is not our ideal frontcourt player. Hes our fourth best front court player. Running Kessler against bench players is also going to throw the numbers off as well.

Its the people throwing their arms up in disbelief that I think is funny. Yes he is a limited player and many of us tried to tell yall. He has played as well as can be expected in the role we had for him. He was a known commodity and if we were taking on his contract we should have got a first. He was never a defensive stopper... best he got to was okayish. He had some moments in the playoffs holding his own against Embiid and I think he got overrated. He was atrocious coming out of college on defense and got to a good spot for him.

He's struggled "adapting to the system" because he sucks at some of the things we are asking out of him... but its not a system issue and all of the fit issues were known from day 1... unless you put blinders on. We should have held out for the Kings pick or walked away. Now that he's here Hardy is dealing with it the best he can and its fine for now.

 

[KqWIN]

Conley was horrible his first year with the Jazz. Not an apple to apples situation, but John Collins has been lacking in 1) his defense 2) his finishing inside the paint. I can't find a good reason as to why that would be, so I'm cautiously optimistic he will return to form. At least to 21/22 form. I don't think we will see peak John Collins without a role change + better PG.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

This is an awful thread. The only thing about these two you can compare is that they were drafted by the Hawks and then went from Atl to Utah.

Collins is more skilled and athletic, Williams is a better shooter and defender, and was a winning player and worth at least a grain of salt. His teams consistently won

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is an awful thread. The only thing about these two you can compare is that they were drafted by the Hawks and then went from Atl to Utah.

Collins is more skilled and athletic, Williams is a better shooter and defender, and was a winning player and worth at least a grain of salt. His teams consistently won

I stand by it

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I stand by it

Lmao.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I stand by it

You are now just throwing **** up now

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You are now just throwing **** up now

Ok bud.

Did you even read what I wrote about it or did you just see the title and decide because they aren't a 1:1 comp to each other you wanted to dunk on it?

 

[HermanG]

He's struggled "adapting to the system" because he sucks at some of the things we are asking out of him.. but its not a system issue

That is not what the message was. It said:

the team has been frustrated with his slow uptake on learning the Jazz’s system on both ends of the floor.

If the beat writers say that, and the system issues perfectly explain his on/off numbers as well as his poor ratings, then maybe it might be true.

Also didnt you just say 2 days ago that he is good, just not 25M good? Or was it someone else?

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Ok bud.

Did you even read what I wrote about it or did you just see the title and decide because they aren't a 1:1 comp to each other you wanted to dunk on it?

Yes your ridiculous ramblings of they’re both boring while putting up numbers is so dumb. First, Collins puts up numbers, isn’t boring to watch but makes tons of mistakes. Williams was boring didn’t put up numbers but was satisfying to have out there because he had a high IQ… don’t know if it was super high but he at least knew what he was doing. He made few mistakes, played within himself played defense and hit threes at a great rate. If winning basketball is boring then I hope at some point in the next few years the jazz are the most boring team in the league.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yes your ridiculous ramblings of they’re both boring while putting up numbers is so dumb. First, Collins puts up numbers, isn’t boring to watch but makes tons of mistakes. Williams was boring didn’t put up numbers but was satisfying to have out there because he had a high IQ… don’t know if it was super high but he at least knew what he was doing. He made few mistakes, played within himself played defense and hit threes at a great rate. If winning basketball is boring then I hope at some point in the next few years the jazz are the most boring team in the league.

Marvin shot 32 and 35 percent from 3 in UTA through 2 seasons.

Collins is shooting 37%...

So part of your thesis is flawed while what Im saying is proven to be more and more right.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Utah won 43 and 25 in two seasons of Marvin. Not exactly winning basketball. So again your thesis is flawed. Jazz will probably win 34-ish games this season, possibly more, so the win rate with Collins will likely be better than the average win rate of the two years of Marvin.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That is not what the message was. It said:

If the beat writers say that, and the system issues perfectly explain his on/off numbers as well as his poor ratings, then maybe it might be true.

Also didnt you just say 2 days ago that he is good, just not 25M good? Or was it someone else?

I am sure I said that or something similar. I understand the messaging but I don't think this is something that will click in per se... I just think he doesn't have the skills to do what we need him to... they may view it as slow to understand or whatevs but I think its just kinda who he is. I also think stuff that gets communicated and reported isn't like raw unfiltered truth. I don't necessarily have a problem with how they positioned it I just think its funny that its surprising or that people think its a mystery.

He's not a good passer or dribbler.. he's not some great defender that fills in the gaps. He's not a guy with some hidden talents or things that will unlock. He's good but he should make 12-13M a year not 25-28M a year. If he made that much he could come off the bench as a third big and be good in that role. It was fairly obvious to me from watching him in Atlanta and the only thing I thought that could tick up that would improve his value was his shooting... which has improved here but he's mostly just deadly from the corners and bad above the break... so even that is a bit limited.

At this point you live with it and manage it. Hardy is doing well imo but after the deadline you need to change the ratio of minutes for him and Kessler. Hope you can move him if someone gets desperate or dumb... after the deadline do what is best for the team.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

John plays at a position where his replacements both give us something we desperately need. KO brings shooting and ball movement... Kessler brings elite rim protection. Both skills are more valuable to us because of other issues we have on the roster but are just more valuable in general than what John brings. For John to play 30 plus minutes on a good team the team will need a great playmaker in the backcourt or on the wing and a 5 that shoots and protects the rim. Otherwise he is best as a third big. We have a great third big type in KO. The acquisition never made sense and I think John has played as well as a reasonable person could expect.

 

[UB]

Threads like these make me miss carolinaJazz

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The comp to Marvin is definitely off.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The comp to Marvin is definitely off.

Like I said, it's a personal comp of how they make me feel as players watching them.