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Minute Distribution???

I think Lyles will get ahead of Diaw in the rotation by mid-season, in large part because he rebounds more, though he's not at that level of playmaking just yet. I can't see Lyles not getting 20+ minutes.
 
Really is hard to see how the minutes are going to be allocated. But I think the lineup with the best chances of winning consistently and identifying the Jazz identity for this year and the next few years is going to be the ones getting the minutes.

That being said I think the Gobert /Exum led lineup is going to be what the team will be built around.Not saying George Hill isn't going to be a big part of the Jazz plans but the NBA is about talent and you have to play it.When said and done though I could see Exum and Hill getting 24>28 minutes a night depending on play and the game.
Seems like half the people want Exum and Burks and Lyles sitting behind Diaw,JJ,and GHill .I'll take talent over moxie and experience right now.Diaw and JJ had their day but Lyles and Burks have more talent and the young legs to make a bigger difference.
 
Defensive goals

The Jazz want to be an elite team defensively, top-two in the NBA. In order to do so, they'll have to be responsible on and off the ball, a top focus of training camp.

"The guy guarding the ball needs to be accountable," Snyder said about his defensive system. "And then if that doesn't happen, we all have to have his back, not just once, but over the course of the possession. We want our guys to be on a string."
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Andy Larsen
 
Stifle Tower said:
If everyone is healthy, Ingles, Mack, Neto, Bolomboy and Withey(if he's the 15th player) are garbage time guys.

Quin mentioned in his interview that Hayward and Favors could both see 4th quarter rest if the subs are holding a good lead.

I also like the Favors, Johnson, Hayward, Hill and Hood lineup. I think we'll see a lot of it.

240 mins total
Favors 30, Gobert 28, Diaw 15, Lyles 23
Hill 24, Exum 24
Hayward 30, Hood 24, Johnson 22, Burks 20

For those who say 30 is not enough for Gotdon and Derrick, check out some SA regular season averages.
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I agree with this but think that Gordo plays more than 30... 34ish. I also think Hill plays 28-30 with Exum and Burks minutes taking a hit. I don't think Diaw will be a regular rotation player if we are at full strength. Think we play some small ball and Lyles/Rudy/Favs will all see a little more time than above.

All and all I think this is close... This will be a weird "issue" this season. Will be interesting to see what happens.
 
Stoked said:
Rumblings out of camp that Joe Johnson might get more minutes than expected, especially early in the season.
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I think this year he will be more effective than Burks (partly due to health).

I'm impressed with what I've heard and always liked his game.
 
My adjustments accounted for injuries. I reduced Burks to 38% of his MPG average because he played 31/82 games. Same for Favors, Gobert, Mack, and Trey B. So, last year's data is not irrelevant. This year will be different, but it gives perspective. We picked up a minimum of these players minutes that we have to squeeze in:

Johnson: 34
B. Diaw: 18
Hill: 34
Exum: 18
Burks: 26

That's 130 minutes. Adding up everyone we lost:

Trey Burke: 21 replaced by Shelvin Mack: 31 (net gain and already adjusted for above)
Trevor Booker: 21
Chris Johnson: 10 (adjusted)
Junk: 5 minutes perhaps from everyone else adjusted

Total of 50 minutes lost.

Net gain of: 80 minutes based on player's normal minutes!

We have to cut 80 minutes from 15 players.

- Reducing the starters by 5 minutes each makes up for 25... but that's a lot of reduced minutes for starters.
- Reducing Joe Johnson 10 minutes seems likely since he is 36.
- Let's give some of Hills time to Exum. Say 10 minutes toward's Exum's total of 18. That's 45 minutes total. We still have to find 35 minutes to cut.
- Shelvin Mack could get garbage minutes and that would reduce him from 10 to 5. There's another 5 minutes.
- Eliminating Ingles, Withey, Bolomboy, and Neto to a total of 10 minutes...

Ha! There we have it...

So 5 starters reduced by 5 minutes each...
Joe J., Ingles, Withey, and Neto reduced by 10 - 18 minutes EACH...
Shelvin Mack reduced by 31 minutes...
And no playing time for the rookie/no increased playing time for second year players (Lyles and Exum included)

CRAZY!!!

If either Mack or Neto isn't gone by midyear, I will be blown away. 4 point guards on the same roster and both of them played significant starter minutes last year?
 
Catchall said:
I think Lyles will get ahead of Diaw in the rotation by mid-season, in large part because he rebounds more, though he's not at that level of playmaking just yet. I can't see Lyles not getting 20+ minutes.
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Lyles is the Truth.
 
KqWIN said:
In order to get the correct minutes distribution I should have used the convolution formula and then transformed it into pascal's triangle in order to be able to factor it using the neyman pearson lemma to get the data approximately normal so I can find the sufficient statistic and then communicate that statistic to David Locke so he can consult Kevin Pelton for the bayesian estimator and make sure that it is cauchy. If Pelton confirms I can use the poisson distribution to get an approximation for the taylor expansion of the transition matrix so I can use markov chains and use that to get the stationary probabilities of the matrix.
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You took the words right out of my mouth.
 
Hill 28 Exum 20
Hood 30 Burks 18
Hayward 32 Johnson 16
Favors 24 Lyles 22 Johnson 2
Gobert 29 Favors 8 Diaw 11

That's the best I could do, ignoring injuries. No minutes for Mack, Neto, Ingles, Withey and Bolomboy.
 
dalamon said:
Hill 28 Exum 20
Hood 30 Burks 18
Hayward 32 Johnson 16
Favors 24 Lyles 22 Johnson 2
Gobert 29 Favors 8 Diaw 11

That's the best I could do, ignoring injuries. No minutes for Mack, Neto, Ingles, Withey and Bolomboy.
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Pretty good..... And pretty fair I think.
Don't think anyone really bitches about their minutes too much in your scenario other than maybe Burks. But 18 minutes isn't horribly low and there would be games that he played more due to foul trouble and blowouts and injuries and stuff.
 
dalamon said:
Hill 28 Exum 20
Hood 30 Burks 18
Hayward 32 Johnson 16
Favors 24 Lyles 22 Johnson 2
Gobert 29 Favors 8 Diaw 11

That's the best I could do, ignoring injuries. No minutes for Mack, Neto, Ingles, Withey and Bolomboy.
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This looks pretty good. I imagine that Exum's minutes will start going up a bit as the season progresses (obviously at the expense of Hill) and that we eventually see a trade involving one or more of the guys getting little to no playing time (plus Burks).
 
18 minutes means he averages that acRoss the season. So, some games he would get 25 and some games he would get 11.

I don't think having 5 players get 0 minutes on average is fair to assume either. More sacrifices are probable. Hopefully the minutes come off the starters in the 4th due to blow outs...
 
fishonjazz said:
Pretty good..... And pretty fair I think.
Don't think anyone really bitches about their minutes too much in your scenario other than maybe Burks. But 18 minutes isn't horribly low and there would be games that he played more due to foul trouble and blowouts and injuries and stuff.
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It's just hard to take anyone's minutes and give them to Alec, unless you're playing him at the 1 and you take out Dante (bad idea imo). Joe will be getting 18mpg, Rodney and Hayward can't have their minutes budged.

Honestly I think 18mpg will be pretty damn good for Alec. Microwave type role with the team, if he's on then Rod or Dante can sit down
 
dalamon said:
It's just hard to take anyone's minutes and give them to Alec, unless you're playing him at the 1 and you take out Dante (bad idea imo). Joe will be getting 18mpg, Rodney and Hayward can't have their minutes budged.

Honestly I think 18mpg will be pretty damn good for Alec. Microwave type role with the team, if he's on then Rod or Dante can sit down
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Ya honestly i think your minute distribution is the best so far. Probably not far off at all.
 
dalamon said:
Hill 28 Exum 20
Hood 30 Burks 18
Hayward 32 Johnson 16
Favors 24 Lyles 22 Johnson 2
Gobert 29 Favors 8 Diaw 11

That's the best I could do, ignoring injuries. No minutes for Mack, Neto, Ingles, Withey and Bolomboy.
Click to expand...

Favors/Hayward: 32
Hood: 30
Gobert: 29
George Hill: 28
Lyles: 22
Dante: 20
Burks/JJ: 18
Diaw: 11

--


Maybe Hill's minutes will go down but he's just such a crunch-time perfect fit next to gordon and rodney that I can't see it happening. My guess is that this'll be close to what each players average barring injury
 
Hill 20 Exum 28
Hood 28 Burks 15 Hill 5
Hayward 30 J.J 18
Favors 24 Lyles 20 Diaw 4
Gobert 28 Favors 6 Diaw 12
 
I think something to remember about Alec, is that he is one of the players on this team that does something better than anyone else (obviously, just in my opinion), and that is getting to the rim, playing that slasher role. And I think with the added shooting we have on this team now, it will make him much more effective, I can definitely see him playing extended minutes some nights just because he is torching other teams.

I've never thought of myself as a huge Burks homer before, but apparently I am one of the biggest now haha.
 
I imagine there may be a handful or two of nights were Joe Jesus doesn't play in the second game of a back-to-back (ala Pop) or has his minutes limited (from say 20 to 14) to keep him fresh. This could also be the case for Diaw.
 
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