Minute Distribution???

[GVC]

Think it's worthwhile to start with a lower bound for each player, and then see how many minutes are left, and how it works out by position.


My minimum minutes for the Jazz's top-10:

Gobert: 28
Favors: 28
Diaw: 12
Lyles: 16
Hayward: 30
Johnson: 24 (dude has played >32 minutes for 13 consecutive seasons)
Hood: 20
Burks: 16
Hill: 26
Exum: 12

Total: 212 -- 28 minutes (ignoring injuries) available.


Available minutes by position (using the minimum minutes above):

5: 68 (Gobert, Favors, Diaw (who, according to BR, has never really played any minutes at the 5...so 56 might be more accurate here))
4: 110 (Favors, Diaw, Lyles, Hayward, Johnson)
3: 74 (Hayward, Johnson, Hood)
2: 66 (Hayward (who still played some minutes at the 2 last season, according to BR), Hood, Burks)
1: 54 (Hill, Exum, Burks (who probably shouldn't be included here))

Breaking it down by 1/2/3 v. 4/5, with players limited to these positions in bold -- because filling minutes at the 4/5 will be easy:

4/5: 138 (Gobert, Favors, Diaw, Lyles, Hayward, Johnson) ---> 0-12 minutes remaining
1/2/3: 128 (Hood, Burks, Hill, Exum, Hayward, Johnson) ---> 16-28 minutes remaining


I doubt Burks gets any minutes at the 1, so 10 of the remaining 28 minutes are likely going to Hill/Exum/Mack/Neto. I'd guess 6-12 of the remaining minutes will be allocated to the bigs (Gobert, Favors, Diaw, Lyles), leaving at most 6 minutes for Hayward or Johnson at the 4. The last 6-12 minutes go to the Jazz wings -- it's hard to see how many (any?) of these can be allocated to Burks (which is partly why I've listed him as an option at the 1), with Johnson and Hood at only 20 and 24 minutes, respectively. It's also entirely possible that Mack and Ingles compete for some of Burks' minutes. Provided Quin's up for the challenge, and the players' are flexible/amenable to his decisions/what's best for winning games, these are nice problems to have.


One additional note: I'm not sure I agree with KqWIN's assertion that the team's best players need to play big minutes to maximize the team's expected win total (or championship probability/total playoff games...). Given the effects of fatigue within and across games, it's entirely possible the boost in performance from playing fewer minutes is substantial. Further, it's entirely possible that Lyles is more effective in his 16th-ish minute as Favors is in his 33rd. This seems more of an issue for Favors than Gobert, as he frequently looks gassed when playing heavy minutes. His past foot and lower back problems also shouldn't be ignored. Favors at 28 minutes and Gobert at 30-32 might be close to optimal, given the depth of the team.

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

I got this off of Realgm.

 

[KqWIN]

One additional note: I'm not sure I agree with KqWIN's assertion that the team's best players need to play big minutes to maximize the team's expected win total (or championship probability/total playoff games...). Given the effects of fatigue within and across games, it's entirely possible the boost in performance from playing fewer minutes is substantial. Further, it's entirely possible that Lyles is more effective in his 16th-ish minute as Favors is in his 33rd. This seems more of an issue for Favors than Gobert, as he frequently looks gassed when playing heavy minutes. His past foot and lower back problems also shouldn't be ignored. Favors at 28 minutes and Gobert at 30-32 might be close to optimal, given the depth of the team.

I took a little different approach. On any given night, the best way to maximize your chance at winning is to play your best players big minutes. Obviously there is a cap for each player, but you need to have an upper bound in mind and be prepared to play that player up to it every night. For example, I'd plan on playing Hayward about 36 minutes every night, but he's not going to average 36 MPG because there will be blowouts and games where we don't need him to. You're looking for a sweet spot, and I think Hayward can play 36 minutes at a high level every night. You won't need that every night, but you should be prepared to play him those minutes if it means winning.

I agree with you about Favors. You never hear a bad word about Favors in the Jazz community, but in my opinion his condition is poor and has been holding him back. When he's tired you can really tell and his performance falls off a cliff. He's always been aggravating for me to watch and it's because he's not close to being as good as he could be. A big part of that is because he gets tired so easily. Lyles may be better in his 17th minute than Favors in his 33rd, but that's not going to be good enough come playoff time. He needs to be able to play harder and for more minutes if this team wants to win a playoff series.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

Maybe Coach should distribute minutes in relation to miles per hour, so to speak.
Any player slacks, or is off and pull him because there are good players waiting to go.

That will affect things.