Most likely outcome to me is that Mitchell is traded. If I had to bet, it would be Miami, but I would prefer it to be NYK with their picks and young players. I also think BKN is still very much in play despite Simmons/Mitchell rule complications. I think Conley ends up in BKN in the aftermath of a Kyrie trade.
I don't hate a barebones version of the Jazz with Mitchell and Ayton. If we end up with Ayton, we will get him at a value that is way less than what we could trade him for if things don't work and/or Mitchell demands out anyways. I think the motivation to get Ayton goes down if Mitchell is not playing, but I still think I'd trade for him if all it took was Bogey and a bad first or two.