Should we go full rebuild?

[Bawse Dawg]

How do you see the opposite way? What would it look like? Lets say we keep Lauri and we really try to go for it. What are some example moves we can do and where do they land us? Do they make us better than 8th seed Suns? Or 9th seed Lakers? Or 10th seed Warriors?

Oh I definitely don't have the answer.

Just trying to be the voice of the average fan. And if you tell them that we need to bottom out for a couple of years to carry out the plan. They would (rightfully) ask what the hell these last two years were and why we didn't start then.

I don't think it is as crazy or unlikely as people seem to think, that we just run it back with a few new players from the draft and see what happens. We have a ton of picks in the upcoming years and you just hope you strike gold even if you are always outside of the top 7 when picking. It sounds like what you do if you really have no plan. But statistically finding our next star by just doing that and keeping the star already on the roster might be the best chance we have at becoming great.

It would really be following the Thunder model to make Lauri our Paul George, move our only good player and truly go in the tank. The issue there is that it can't just be about picks. You need to get SGA back in that trade. Which takes a confluence of amazing luck, circumstances, and a desperate team. Even if you can identify that player getting him for Lauri is still a big challenge, likely impossible.

It's just a bummer, even with hindsight saying they should have had top 5 odds for Wemby, that's still like a 10% chance at best. And if we had missed on him, then what? Miller seems like a great consolation. And otherwise no players from last years draft would have us feeling significantly different than we do now. So it just feels like being an unfair *** when I say they blew it by not going all in last year when that very likely doesn't work out either.

 

[stitches]

That's the challenge but also its not necessarily about one year or the next couple years. The depth of the West also might mean we could keep Lauri, get rid of some of the more vet pieces potentially... and still end up bottom 5-6.

DA will go where the best value opportunities lead him is my best guess.

The interesting bit for me is that the teams I mentioned are actually the teams that are probably on their way out of contention in the next few years. And the teams we will have to be contending against (in addition to the top 6-7) are the Rockets... the Spurs... maybe the Grizzlies if Ja returns and gets his head straight? And honestly, unless we strike real gold somewhere along the way we are probably at the back end of that top 8-9 teams for the foreseeable future. Tell me I'm wrong...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The interesting bit for me is that the teams I mentioned are actually the teams that are probably on their way out of contention in the next few years. And the teams we will have to be contending against (in addition to the top 6-7) are the Rockets... the Spurs... maybe the Grizzlies if Ja returns and gets his head straight? And honestly, unless we strike real gold somewhere along the way we are probably at the back end of that op 8-9 teams for the foreseeable future. Tell me I'm wrong...

It's hard enough to predict one team's future in 3 years, much less a entire conference.

And yes, striking gold is part of the equation in making a good basketball team.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It's just funny how optimistic some Jazz fans are about the future of other teams, but entirely negative when it comes to the Jazz's despite the Jazz having a great roster, great picks, great FO, and a great coach.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

It's just funny how optimistic some Jazz fans are about the future of other teams, but entirely negative when it comes to the Jazz's despite the Jazz having a great roster, great picks, great FO, and a great coach.

Agreed in general, but great roster?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The interesting bit for me is that the teams I mentioned are actually the teams that are probably on their way out of contention in the next few years. And the teams we will have to be contending against (in addition to the top 6-7) are the Rockets... the Spurs... maybe the Grizzlies if Ja returns and gets his head straight? And honestly, unless we strike real gold somewhere along the way we are probably at the back end of that top 8-9 teams for the foreseeable future. Tell me I'm wrong...

Yeah IDK. I think the acquire a second star route leads us to look like the Kings for a season or two if it works well. We'd have more picks and more young players so there'd be some upside still, but its not a horrible short/medium term existence.

 

[stitches]

Oh I definitely don't have the answer.

Just trying to be the voice of the average fan. And if you tell them that we need to bottom out for a couple of years to carry out the plan. They would (rightfully) ask what the hell these last two years were and why we didn't start then.

I get what you mean and I feel your pain of not having a comptetitive team. For me personally, I'm much more annoyed with the lack of cohesive plan than with any direction we are going towards. Even though it's not my preferred path, I can get behind us trying to be good right away too. I just need to see them actually try it, rather than give up half way through the season.

I don't think it is as crazy or unlikely as people seem to think, that we just run it back with a few new players from the draft and see what happens. We have a ton of picks in the upcoming years and you just hope you strike gold even if you are always outside of the top 7 when picking. It sounds like what you do if you really have no plan. But statistically finding our next star by just doing that and keeping the star already on the roster might be the best chance we have at becoming great.

It would really be following the Thunder model to make Lauri our Paul George, move our only good player and truly go in the tank. The issue there is that it can't just be about picks. You need to get SGA back in that trade. Which takes a confluence of amazing luck, circumstances, and a desperate team. Even if you can identify that player getting him for Lauri is still a big challenge, likely impossible.

Lauri is not at the level PG13 was when they traded him so we probably cannot expect similar return, even with a desperate team. But yeah, agreed overall... if you can get top level prospect, rather than picks, that would be good outcome too.

It's just a bummer, even with hindsight saying they should have had top 5 odds for Wemby, that's still like a 10% chance at best. And if we had missed on him, then what? Miller seems like a great consolation. And otherwise no players from last years draft would have us feeling significantly different than we do now. So it just feels like being an unfair *** when I say they blew it by not going all in last year when that very likely doesn't work out either.

IMO when we are at the stage of rebuild it's more important to do the right things, rather than look at the results. The hope is if you make enough good decisions, at the end you will come out on top.

 

[sip]

It just sucks because two years ago I think the majority of the fan base would be all in. But we just did two terrible years. Now you are asking for two more, we literally just did this and the FO didn't go all in enough with it.

Selling people on "Well that sucked, but we weren't serious enough about it, give us another two years and we'll get it right this time." is just tough.

I fully agree that it sucks and we should have committed to going young right away but at this point it is what it is. When you make mistakes usually the best thing to do is admit it and take a step and to evaluate where you are at and what the best route is going forward. Based on what I see around us in the western conference I think focusing on win now would be foolish because I see a lot of young teams with better foundations in place already. Wouldn't next year be even more depressing for you if we tried to make a few win now moves and still finished bottom 4 in the west which I think is highly likely. In that scenario it is also likely we see Hardy play vets in front of younger guys at least the first half of the season so once again we miss out on player development and then at the end of the year we go with the obvious tank again. I would prefer to be really bad from the get go so that we can focus on player development the 1st half of the year as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's just funny how optimistic some Jazz fans are about the future of other teams, but entirely negative when it comes to the Jazz's despite the Jazz having a great roster, great picks, great FO, and a great coach.

YEah... we assume Rockets will have like 5 all stars... Grizz will end up drafting another all star... I've even seen some assume Wemby wins a title on his rookie deal(JK don't get triggered).

We are very grass is greener types in sports... shrug.

 

[stitches]

It's just funny how optimistic some Jazz fans are about the future of other teams, but entirely negative when it comes to the Jazz's despite the Jazz having a

great roster,

Is it great roster?

great picks,

We have a lot of picks... we will see how great they are... but lets say we do have at least a one great pick.

great FO, and a

are we sure?

great coach.

I will give you that.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I get what you mean and I feel your pain of not having a comptetitive team. For me personally, I'm much more annoyed with the lack of cohesive plan than with any direction we are going towards. Even though it's not my preferred path, I can get behind us trying to be good right away too. I just need to see them actually try it, rather than give up half way through the season.

Lauri is not at the level PG13 was when they traded him so we probably cannot expect similar return, even with a desperate team. But yeah, agreed overall... if you can get top level prospect, rather than picks, that would be good outcome too.

IMO when we are at the stage of rebuild it's more important to do the right things, rather than look at the results. The hope is if you make enough good decisions, at the end you will come out on top.

I'm with you. The worst part of the post Mitchell Gobert era is that there appears to be no real plan whatsoever.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm with you. The worst part of the post Mitchell Gobert era is that there appears to be no real plan whatsoever.

IDK but this just infuriates me to no end.

The Jazz have done the same thing two trade-deadlines in a row. How is that not a plan? It may not be a plan you like all that much, but they are clearly following some kind of guideline.

 

[sip]

It's just funny how optimistic some Jazz fans are about the future of other teams, but entirely negative when it comes to the Jazz's despite the Jazz having a great roster, great picks, great FO, and a great coach.

It's funny how optimistic you are when you trashed half our roster yet somehow it is a great roster. Right now the odds are that the wolves and cavs picks will be outside the lottery. Not sure yet how good the front office is because they have made some really good moves mixed with very strange moves. Hardy is still very unproven as a coach.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

IDK but this just infuriates me to no end.

The Jazz have done the same thing two trade-deadlines in a row. How is that not a plan? It may not be a plan you like all that much, but they are clearly following some kind of guideline.

Okay, I'll meet you there.

So the only way we can possibly decipher the plan as you describe it would be to say that the plan is "Go into each season trying to be competitive and make the playoffs, if by the trade deadline it is clear they aren't very good, sell off veteran pieces to tank the last third of the season and help draft position as much as possible"

That must be the plan right? Do you like that plan?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Agreed in general, but great roster?

Lauri is a top 20 player. Sexton is top 50/60 (may not be a long-term piece because of how they view Keyonte (which should excite us), but hopefully someone out there recognizes his value)

Four players on rookie contracts all who have at least rotation player potential. Hardy thinks Keyonte has star potential. The Jazz will most likely add another top 10 pick to that mix. They also have a ton of cap-space to do things.

There's only one bad contract on the roster, which is John Collins. I still think he can be a positive impact player if put in the right role. Same with Clarkson.

 

[Tanktastic]

Not to mention the fact that it would be pretty hard for Clarkson to have a worse season next year (if we keep him) and Collins should be a better player next year after having a year with the team.

Why would these be good for the franchise?

The team will have the three rookies, quite possibly three new rookies and you're taking optimism from JC X2 making them absolutely mid.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Okay, I'll meet you there.

So the only way we can possibly decipher the plan as you describe it would be to say that the plan is "Go into each season trying to be competitive and make the playoffs, if by the trade deadline it is clear they aren't very good, sell off veteran piece to take the last third of the season and help draft position as much as possible"

That must be the plan right? Do you like that plan?

So far I do like the plan. It's working. The Jazz are building a team. They helped develop Lauri into a top 20 guy. They helped develop Sexton into a winning player who is arguably top 50. They seem to have nailed their first draft. The Clarkson extensions and Collins trade seem to be negatives at this point, but there is still time to salvage those.

The players they have held out on trading have gotten more valuable. The Jazz wanted to trade Conley to the Lakers before the season started but the Lakers werent playing ball. They waited and they turned Conley into a 2027 first that has the potential to be extremely valuable. They turned Simone from a guy who seemed like might be out of the NBA into the 32nd pick (a trade I still hate, but they gained value from where we thought he was at the start of the season). They turned KO/Ochai into a first rounder. We all had higher hopes for Ochai going into the season, but turning those two into a late first was a phenomenal move.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay, I'll meet you there.

So the only way we can possibly decipher the plan as you describe it would be to say that the plan is "Go into each season trying to be competitive and make the playoffs, if by the trade deadline it is clear they aren't very good, sell off veteran pieces to tank the last third of the season and help draft position as much as possible"

That must be the plan right? Do you like that plan?

I think that is kind of the plan for now... which is not fantastic but its not the end of the world. You mentioned it in another post... since the top of the draft is so meh its okay for a year. Last year I think they thought they would have time to tank harder and we got off to too good of a start.

I think because of the Lauri extension they will need to be a little more firm with their planning this summer (if you get a big contract vet like Collins they need to be a better fit). But I think their plan is still "we will take paths that seem like good transactions and fit our long term goals". That could mean adding win-now talent. It could mean subtracting win-now talent if the offers are good.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Why would these be good for the franchise?

The team will have the three rookies, quite possibly three new rookies and you're taking optimism from JC X2 making them absolutely mid.

Why would Jazz players playing better than this year be good for the franchise? Is that the question you are asking me? Sorry, just want to make sure my idiot translator is working properly.

 

[Tanktastic]

They seem to have nailed their first draft.

Keyonte looks like a good pick so far. Hendricks has played in 33 games and started 16. And Sensabaugh hasn't shown anything so far. Evaluating drafts a year out is a fool's errand, but "nailing" it seems awfully generous.

They waited and they turned Conley into a 2027 first that has the potential to be extremely valuable.

It's a mid pick. Nothing more, nothing less right now. Sure, it might become the 5th pick. Or it might be a 2nd rounder.

They turned KO/Ochai into a first rounder. We all had higher hopes for Ochai going into the season, but turning those two into a late first was a phenomenal move.

They turned the 14th pick and KO into a high-20s pick. I don't think the FO can get props for running a player's value down for 1½ seasons and then rescuing something for him.

Why would Jazz players playing better than this year be good for the franchise? Is that the question you are asking me? Sorry, just want to make sure my idiot translator is working properly.

Why would John Collins playing well or whatever and taking up 30 minutes be good for the Jazz. You factor in Lauri, Collins and Kessler playing decently and that's 86/96 mins out of the 4/5 spots taken up. So Hendricks is playing 10+ minutes. And JC playing decently takes up 30 minutes from the guard rotation.

Either the incoming rookies play zero minutes or the Jazz move on from Hendricks and definitely Sensabaugh.

And for what? To compete for the last play-in spot next year? If playing those vets in major roles to be 10th is a good thing, then I guess you must hate the deadline moves the Jazz have made so far...

If next January the Jazz are sitting 10th with major contributions from JC and Collins, and the rookies are in the G league... isn't it just groundhog day?