The Defense Thread

[Tremendous Upside]

I think Kessler is in a bad mindset more than anything. Could be higher expecations, failed team USA stint eating his confidence or the fact that more is being pushed to his plate.

He did play rather simple drop big game last year and didn't even get involved much offensively outside of rebounds and putbacks. Maybe he is now asked to do more and that is simply distracting him from the things he excelled in last year.

His mindset is definitely part of the problem. Recently Kessler was quoted as saying something like "I can't even catch the ****ing ball". He sounds super frustrated with himself.

Still, an NBA pro can't wallow in despair. There's always another game.

For whatever reason Walker has lost a lot of his confidence, and it shows in every facet of his game. He's even biting on shot fakes now. He rarely did that as a rookie.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

His mindset is definitely part of the problem. Recently Kessler was quoted as saying something like "I can't even catch the ****ing ball". He sounds super frustrated with himself.

Still, an NBA pro can't wallow in despair. There's always another game.

For whatever reason Walker has lost a lot of his confidence, and it shows in every facet of his game. He's even biting on shot fakes now. He rarely did that as a rookie.

Is this gonna be like the 3rd or 4th year (can't remember) Gordon Hayward season where he was the king of negative body language and struggled mightily?

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Nuggs gonna put up 175 points tonight and Hardy will never have us in a zone again.

Then I hope they drop 200

 

[//r00t 4 Jazz]

Could it be partly from all the assistant coaching changes, and mainly losing Alex Jensen in relation Kessler?

Coaching staff still learning and adjusting to each other same as the players... who knows. And I don't hate the zone as much as you guys, but if the players aren't bought into running it then the coaches need to do better in getting them to buy in or run it less. And the PHX game not withstanding Hardy showed the numbers for the zone has been better then their regular D, which is absolutely not saying much.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Overall team defense is one thing, and I can't really comment much.

More related to Kessler though: I mean, it's one on one you are the only thing standing between the guy with the ball and the rim. Defensive scheme doesn't really matter at that point, he can't even make his presence felt in any way. I don't get it. I know there's a ton of nuance going on that I can't see, but usually a player doesn't jump off the screen because of how bad they are.

I'm setting myself for an all time crow eating and I would welcome it. Nothing could look demonstrably different tonight, yet he puts up a 20-15 game. I understand sports well enough to know that I don't understand sports. So call it a major jinx, and I defer to all of you who watched him last year. But he looks like the one hundred other tall white stiffs out there who bounce between a dozen+ teams for super cheap their whole career and can't sniff a court in a playoff series, or even regular crunch time minutes.

 

[fishonjazz]

I was excited to watch Kessler and he's been completely invisible. I don't even know what 'good Kessler' from last year even looks like because I've seen basically nothing from the dude this year. What are his skills and talents when he is playing well?

Think of what rudy gobert looked like when he was playing well. Then make him more efficient and have him block more shots. It looks like that. His per 36 last year was 14 points on 8 shots (72% from the field), 13 rebounds and almost 4 blocks (3.7)

 

[fishonjazz]

Overall team defense is one thing, and I can't really comment much.

More related to Kessler though: I mean, it's one on one you are the only thing standing between the guy with the ball and the rim. Defensive scheme doesn't really matter at that point, he can't even make his presence felt in any way. I don't get it. I know there's a ton of nuance going on that I can't see, but usually a player doesn't jump off the screen because of how bad they are.

I'm setting myself for an all time crow eating and I would welcome it. Nothing could look demonstrably different tonight, yet he puts up a 20-15 game. I understand sports well enough to know that I don't understand sports. So call it a major jinx, and I defer to all of you who watched him last year. But he looks like the one hundred other tall white stiffs out there who bounce between a dozen+ teams for super cheap their whole career and can't sniff a court in a playoff series, or even regular crunch time minutes.

Ya he has sucked in his 3 game and lower minutes than last year sample size this season. Last year if he was the only thing standing between the guy with the ball and the rim and that guy decided to try to score then they were getting their shot blocked. Hasn't been the case so far this year. I think that will change

 

[framer]

I mean it's 3 games against 3 of the best teams in the NBA. Last year, Hardy would protect Kessler from games like these early in the season, by limiting his minutes and matching him against bench bags. Kessler is going to need to learn about the other players and watch film, because the other starters have seen his film now. . .

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I'm setting myself for an all time crow eating and I would welcome it. Nothing could look demonstrably different tonight, yet he puts up a 20-15 game. I understand sports well enough to know that I don't understand sports. So call it a major jinx, and I defer to all of you who watched him last year.

Welp, just as I said. Except he did look a bit different, active and engaged goes a long way.

I also benched him in fantasy today just to be absolutely sure I'd be eating **** about it tonight. Hopefully he's his usual self going forward.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Welp, just as I said. Except he did look a bit different, active and engaged goes a long way.

I also benched him in fantasy today just to be absolutely sure I'd be eating **** about it tonight. Hopefully he's his usual self going forward.

Thank you for your sacrifice.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

Way too early for me to have a clear idea of our defense. Actually i think our main problem will be TO and shooting as our PG situation is not really clear. Defense will improve game after game. See no reason why Kessler can't be good and others will improve too.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

NBA.com finally has some of their second spectrum tracking data up on their website.

- Last year Walker Kessler held opponents to 50% shooting <10ft which is about 10% less than expected.
- This year so far Walker Kessler is allowing opponents 70% shooting <10ft which is 10% more than expected.
- So far opponents are shooting 18% fg% when Kris Dunn is guarding them, which is 28% less than expected.

By this metric our most effective defenders so far this year have been Dunn, Lauri, and Sexton.. Our least effective defenders this year have been Collins, Olynyk, and Kessler.

Obviously we are very very early in to the year. With this little data this information gives a picture of what has happened, but not a prediction of what will happen.

 

[KqWIN]

The defensive tracking numbers can be really noisy. I’m still not sure what to make of them and how useful they are, but they do back up what is IMO the most important thing to our defense. Kessler just hasn’t been impactful around the basket so far.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The defensive tracking numbers can be really noisy. I’m still not sure what to make of them and how useful they are, but they do back up what is IMO the most important thing to our defense. Kessler just hasn’t been impactful around the basket so far.

I have no idea how accurate it is in determining who is guarding a shot. I also don't quite understand how it calculates the expected fg%.

Other than that I think it is pretty useful in understand what is actually happening with man to man defense. Players miss wide open shots and make closely guarded shots, so over small sample sizes it doesn't really tell you who the best defenders are. I think over large sample sizes it is a very good indicator of effective man to man defense.

Obviously there is more to defense than just man to man defense, but I think on/off stats tell a pretty good story on total defensive impact.

 

[HermanG]

I have no idea how accurate it is in determining who is guarding a shot. I also don't quite understand how it calculates the expected fg%.

Other than that I think it is pretty useful in understand what is actually happening with man to man defense. Players miss wide open shots and make closely guarded shots, so over small sample sizes it doesn't really tell you who the best defenders are. I think over large sample sizes it is a very good indicator of effective man to man defense.

Obviously there is more to defense than just man to man defense, but I think on/off stats tell a pretty good story on total defensive impact.

Expected FG% is the average FG% of the shooters in that range area that the player guarded. It means that with early season sample sizes some guys with super high or low FG% can skew those numbers a lot for the defender. It evens out when the year goes on.

Dont know about how they determine the defender, but that FG% I remember finding out from some stat glossay page last year.

 

[KqWIN]

I have no idea how accurate it is in determining who is guarding a shot. I also don't quite understand how it calculates the expected fg%.

Other than that I think it is pretty useful in understand what is actually happening with man to man defense. Players miss wide open shots and make closely guarded shots, so over small sample sizes it doesn't really tell you who the best defenders are. I think over large sample sizes it is a very good indicator of effective man to man defense.

Obviously there is more to defense than just man to man defense, but I think on/off stats tell a pretty good story on total defensive impact.

I think it's ok...but I tend to lean on the on/off stuff more. Maybe because that's just my own comfort and understanding, but there's so much noise in the tracking data.. I'm just not sure it matches up with good man to man defense even over a larger sample size. My understanding is that for every shot taken, one player is assigned as the closest player no matter what the context. This can get fuzzy in different situations. For example, the majority of 3 pointers taken in the NBA are open/wide open. Now of course shooting a 3 with Wemby 8 feet away versus Sexton 8 feet away is different, but I still feel like a majority of the 3FG% defense is just random variance.

Around the basket, you kind of have the opposite effect where there is often more than one defender. So two guys can be in the area, but only one guy gets blame/credit for the make/miss. Depending on the defensive scheme, it could make a player look really under or overrated. I think comparing bigs to bigs around the basket is the most reasonable use. There's still some bleed over effects from scheme etc, but it's the most fair because most shots at the rim are contested and I think the quality of the defender is most reflected around the hoop. With perimeter players, I think it's more about taking away the shots than the percentages. I think good perimeter defense results in no shot more often than it does a bad shot.

Beyond that fouling (bad defense) is also a component that is missing. I feel like Kris Dunn has been a little disappointing on defense, but that's because he's playing Jerry Sloan defense and fouling like crazy. But there are things to pick at with every stat, so maybe I'm just being too harsh. Most of all, I'm just unsure of what to make of these numbers. It's just really hard to isolate what an individual player is doing versus everything else that's going on. I think it can be a component of a more holistic view, however.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think it's ok...but I tend to lean on the on/off stuff more. Maybe because that's just my own comfort and understanding, but there's so much noise in the tracking data.. I'm just not sure it matches up with good man to man defense even over a larger sample size. My understanding is that for every shot taken, one player is assigned as the closest player no matter what the context. This can get fuzzy in different situations. For example, the majority of 3 pointers taken in the NBA are open/wide open. Now of course shooting a 3 with Wemby 8 feet away versus Sexton 8 feet away is different, but I still feel like a majority of the 3FG% defense is just random variance.

Around the basket, you kind of have the opposite effect where there is often more than one defender. So two guys can be in the area, but only one guy gets blame/credit for the make/miss. Depending on the defensive scheme, it could make a player look really under or overrated. I think comparing bigs to bigs around the basket is the most reasonable use. There's still some bleed over effects from scheme etc, but it's the most fair because most shots at the rim are contested and I think the quality of the defender is most reflected around the hoop. With perimeter players, I think it's more about taking away the shots than the percentages. I think good perimeter defense results in no shot more often than it does a bad shot.

Beyond that fouling (bad defense) is also a component that is missing. I feel like Kris Dunn has been a little disappointing on defense, but that's because he's playing Jerry Sloan defense and fouling like crazy. But there are things to pick at with every stat, so maybe I'm just being too harsh. Most of all, I'm just unsure of what to make of these numbers. It's just really hard to isolate what an individual player is doing versus everything else that's going on. I think it can be a component of a more holistic view, however.

I get what you are saying, but would argue on/off is even more noisy because it is impacted by everyone else on the court. I think defensive numbers are best looked at as a composite of information, so I like looking at both.

 

[KqWIN]

I get what you are saying, but would argue on/off is even more noisy because it is impacted by everyone else on the court. I think defensive numbers are best looked at as a composite of information, so I like looking at both.

I'm more comfortable with on/off stuff because I'm aware of the methods with how they control for the other stuff. It's not perfect, but it's easier for me to identify the faults and use it as a tool. With the spectrum stuff, it's kind of a like a raw on/off and that's it. I wouldn't say it's useless, but I haven't figured out a way to take it in correctly if that makes sense. On/off has been around a lot longer so maybe we'll get a better understanding of how to use the spectrum data with time.

 

[fishonjazz]

The defensive tracking numbers can be really noisy. I’m still not sure what to make of them and how useful they are, but they do back up what is IMO the most important thing to our defense. Kessler just hasn’t been impactful around the basket so far.

Ya sometimes guys will just miss regardless of whether the defense was any good. And also sometimes guys make tough shots against very good defense.

 

[Udidthizz]

Learned today that the Jazz haven’t held an opponent under a 100 points under Hardy. Best efforts were holding Dallas and the Pelicans to exactly 100 last year.