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The Ringer: Are The Utah Jazz Ready to Contend?

Reasonable video. Long story short: It will hinge on Mitchell's ability to grow now that Utah has the weapons around him.



Locke saying basically the same thing. The chances for title contention are completely dependent on two things (that are hopefully achievable): 1) Donovan takes another big leap forward, particularly in offensive efficiency; 2) Rudy is able to continue to dominate the paint on both ends of the court, despite the defensive losses of Derrick and Jae.

The good thing is that the improvements they made this year (that will provide far better spacing) make that possible. We’re relying on our two best players to make incremental improvements.

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Donovan is going to be a superstar. It's not even in doubt. He was borderline all star and all nba in his second season lol. So idk why they are talking about it like it's an "if". He's not an unproven player that needs to take a gigantic leap to get there....
 
Donovan is going to be a superstar. It's not even in doubt. He was borderline all star and all nba in his second season lol. So idk why they are talking about it like it's an "if". He's not an unproven player that needs to take a gigantic leap to get there....

He has a pretty big jump to become a "superstar"
 
2) Rudy is able to continue to dominate the paint on both ends of the court, despite the defensive losses of Derrick and Jae.

The defensive drop-off from Jae Crowder to Jeff Green is negligible - Crowder made a lot of noise but he was an at best average defender most of the time.

In fact I'd argue Green's length and ability to play the small ball 5 opens up a lot more possibilities for The Jazz.
 
I think our defense will be better than ever (overall). And a top 5 offense to go with it.

3 all stars and 58+ wins is a possibility if it all clicks.

In the playoffs we find out if we are the 2015 Hawks or the 2015 Warriors. But I can see one of the best regular seasons in Jazz history.
 
Donovan is going to be a superstar. It's not even in doubt. He was borderline all star and all nba in his second season lol. So idk why they are talking about it like it's an "if". He's not an unproven player that needs to take a gigantic leap to get there....

Donovan has a high volume efficiency closer to Andrew Wiggins than a superstars'. He's nearly dead last among high volume players and has a long way to go before leading a team to the promised land.
 
Donovan has a high volume efficiency closer to Andrew Wiggins than a superstars'. He's nearly dead last among high volume players and has a long way to go before leading a team to the promised land.

Second-half of the season, Mitchell was godlike. The playoffs exposed Utah's over-reliance on him to get buckets. He, and the team, will be better this year.
 
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Last year Zach Lowe said he wishes Jae Crowder was 10% better, because then the Jazz could be scary. Well, we replaced Crowder with Bogdanovic who is more than 10% better and we improved at PG.

This team has been top 3 in the league defensively any time Gobert is playing. This is ongoing for 4 straight seasons. No matter who he's surrounded with, he's the system defensively and almost singlehandedly makes us an elite defense.

This team's problem last several years has been bad fit offensively of some of the most important players on the roster - the point guard/primary ballhandler(Rubio) and the player next to Gobert(Favors, who is great and we all love him, but the fit offensively wasn't ideal). In essence the Jazz were starting 3 non-shooters and because of Exum's injuries they've had one single player capable of creating his own shot consistently on the entire roster - Mitchell. This it the dirty little secret that most of the league has no idea about - they give Snyder way too much credit defensively and not nearly enough credit offensively. We have an elite defense but most of it IMO is Gobert, while the offensive personnel has been incredibly limited. If I told you a team would start 3 players that can't hit a 3 to save their lives and have one single offensive creator on the entire roster, you would never guess that this team would be about average in the league offensively, but that's exactly what Quin has done with this offense over the last 2 years - we've been firmly middle of the pack offensively(no. 14 in 2018 and no. 16 in 2019).

Now they add Mike Conley who is a much better fit and quite honestly a better overall player than Rubio(especially offensively) and Bogdanovic who is one of the best sharpshooters in the league. We now have a right handed and a left handed offense initiators in the backcourt(Mitchell and Conley) and right handed and left handed sharpshooters in the corners(Bogdanovic and Ingles both shooting around 50% from the corners) who can situationaly handle the ball a bit + one of the best PnR rim rolling bigs in the league in Gobert. Mitchell or Conley run the PnR... who are you leaving open to help? Gobert finishing 71% in the PnR? Mitchell shooting 46% on spot up 3s? Conley shooting 41% on spot up 3s? Bogdanovic shooting 55% from the left corner? Joe ingles shooting 49% from the right corner?

This year will be a test about just how important fit with NBA teams is, because on paper this team could be REALLY REALLY GOOD! Now games are not played on paper and there will be certain things that we will need to see develop to be sure in some of our assumptions - for example, is the drop off defensively from the other player too much for Gobert to handle and still keep us elite defensively, because for as bad as the fit was offensively both Rubio and Favors were among some of the better deffenders in the league at their position and now we are replacing them with Conley, who is not a bad defender but is much smaller and Bogdanovic who is much worse defender than Favors? Rebounding is another thing that we might have trouble with - other than Gobert none of our starters are great rebounders right now and even if you go into the bench unit, you can probably count only on Royce O'Neale and Ed Davis to be + rebounders for their positions Will this bring the team down or can we survive it with Gobert gobbling up all the rebounds?

We also need Mitchell to take a step forward efficiency-wise. Hopefully adding some shooting around him will help him with improved spacing on the floor for his drives and some better playmaking and offensive creation by Conley and Bogdanovic (and hopefully healthy Exum in bench units) will free him up a bit and alleviate the load on him offensively. Ultimately in the playoffs we will still need him to take a step up in his personal offensive creation efficiency. We cannot win it all unless he turns the corner and becomes the superstar we need him to be.

And to end this here's my bold prediction - if we stay relatively healthy we will win 60 games! Book it!

tl;dr - Gobert has always manned up a top 3 defense, expectation is this will continue. Utah was starting 3 non-shooters and had one single offensive creator on the roster last year and were middle of the pack, now they have 4 shooters around the best rim rolling big in the league and have added/returned multiple offensive creators to help Mitchell with the offensive load. The question is how much better would the offense be then?
 
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I’m guessing we’re around 9th offensively and 5th defensively at the end of the year.

Chemistry matters.
I was thinking something similar... maybe 7th or 8th offensively, and 6th or 7th defensively.

And you've got to think that that would be a top 4 or 5 team overall.
 
3 all stars and 58+ wins is a possibility if it all clicks.
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First, the top seed in the west is probably going to be around 56 wins, so going 58+ would be insane! Second, the west is incredibly talented and 3 all stars is not possible. In fact, we are more likely to have zero all stars than 2. Not trying to be a downer, but if the Jazz community starts off with unrealistic expectations then the season is not going to be as much fun. It would be amazing to have even 1 all star this year!

As for having a top 5 offense, I think I could plan a top 10 offense with this team, so I am pumped to see what Quin does. I can't freaking wait for next year!
 
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