Summary: A rare athlete with size, explosiveness and power, Mudiay combines great scoring instincts with a pass-first attitude. His shooting is inconsistent, and while he is an above-average passer, his decision making is still a work in progress. He didn't take the most tread path to the NBA (playing overseas in China), and his season was limited by an ankle injury. Has the potential to become an ideal new-age point guard in the basic mold of John Wall/Derrick Rose.
Offensive Breakdown: While Mudiay does look to score when he gets a driving lane to the basket, he's a more willing passer than some slashing guards; he's just as confident in his ability to find an open teammate as he is in his ability to score at the rim. He finished with a 31.8% assist rate, which isn't stellar but puts him in the realm of Elfrid Payton (32.9% his final collegiate year), Phoenix's Tyler Ennis (32.3%) and fellow draftee Delon Wright (33%).
Too often Mudiay gets himself into the paint and trusts he can pass out, which leads to trouble. He's such a confident passer he too often goes for the star plays rather than the simple correct passes. Teams learned he isn't great when pressured, and he's on the edge of the "turnover prone" label. The 16% turnover rate and 1.82 assist-to-turnover ratio is comparable to draftmate D'Angelo Russell (14.8%, 1.71), and below Delon Wright (14.2%, 2.6), Jerian Grant (13.4%, 3.04) and Cameron Payne (12.4%, 2.4). At this point, Mudiay's best skill is his ability to be a total threat as both as a passer and as a scorer in the open court, but his decision making will need big improvement.
Mudiay is excellent in the pick-and-roll despite his inconsistent shooting. He was able to beat guards that tried to stick to him, could breeze by any bigs on the switch, and has all the passing tools to take advantage of his rolling teammates. A Mudiay/DeMarcus Cousins pick-and-roll could be a dynamic weapon in the half-court.
The biggest worry about Mudiay's offense is his shooting—his mechanics are inconsistent, his mid-range game is average, and he only hit 34% from three in his 12 games. Mudiay has plenty of time to develop this inconsistency into a strength, and we're not talking about mechanics on the level of Elfrid Payton/Tyreke Evans. If he does develop consistent range, Mudiay could end up the classes best player—he'd become even more of a monster in the pick-and-roll, and his slashing ability would be deadly if opponents had to respect his outside shot. Still, the shooting is a risk to consider (especially the 57.4% free throw success) when balancing who Mudiay
is against his ‘potential' self.
Defensive Breakdown: Mudiay lacked consistent defensive focus, but he also showcased the tools and basic skills to be an excellent defender. His instincts are solid, and when he does misstep he was able to use his quickness to get back in front of his man. His size and strength will allow him to defend both guard spots. The lack of intensity is worrying, but is an omnipresent complaint with this draft class.
He is also a determined rebounder, and consistently utilized his size, length and strength to outmuscle bigger players for rebounds. His rebounding rate of 12.9% (17% defensive rebounding rate) is tops among the guards likely drafted in the first round, and for the whole class he's behind only Notre Dame's Pat Connaughton (13%) and VCU's Treveon Graham (13.8%).
Intangibles: Mudiay doesn't have the speed of John Wall/Mike Conley, nor the explosiveness of Russell Westbrook, but he has more of both physical tools than most NBA guards. Add in his height, a near 6'9 wingspan, and upper body strength, and it's hard not to get excited about his potential.
His original commit to Larry Brown and SMU ended in July 2014 when he decided to play professionally in China, saying he wanted to help his mother financially. In March
he said that he felt the China was a greater challenge for him thanks to the NBA veterans he played against, including Stephon Marbury, Al Harrington, and teammate Will Bynum. While Mudiay served as a great litmus test for the CBA, it was a shame he didn't play in college, or at least in the NBA DLeague—he would have gotten much more attention from the casual fan.
