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What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

idiot said:
You know the guy you have to have leading your team to be a serious contender for a title? And preferably you want more than one?

Since we're likely beginning to settle down to reality this season, I figured it's a good time to try to calculate the odds.

1st (worst record) =11.2%
2nd = 10.7%
3rd = 10.3%
4th = 9.6%
5th = 8.9%
6th = 8.0%
7th = 7.4%
8th = 6.8%
9th = 6.1%
10th = 5.3%
11th = 4.4%
12th = 4.1%
13th = 3.9%
14th = 3.6%
15th = 3.3%

This is for an average year, mind you, so take it with a grain of salt for this draft class (though keep in mind as well that the NBA is a zero-sum game; you can't have all years be above average). Interesting that the best average odds are really no better than 1 in 9 for getting THAT GUY with a league-worst finish.

I calculated these odds by figuring out how many THAT GUYs have been drafted in the 30 years up until the Luka draft (too soon to really call things after the Luka draft), figuring out where they were drafted and then combining that information with the current draft lottery odds.

I identified 36 THAT GUYs over the 30 years, so on average there's just a hair over one per draft. Every NBA finals participant (both winners and losers) had at least one of THAT GUY on their team. These are guys you can imagine being the most important player on a championship team if everything breaks right for that team. So a step up from what Donovan and Rudy were with the Jazz. I used primarily 1st and 2nd team all-NBA players to figure out who is a THAT GUY. But even many one- or two-time second-team All-NBA players didn't make the cut (Julius Randle, Demar Derozan, Gobert, etc). Even two one-time first teamers didn't (DeAndre Jordan, Joakim Noah). The following players were on the margins of making my THAT GUY category, just to give an indication: Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Paul George, Devin Booker, Amare Stoudamire, Chris Webber. I made Jimmy Butler an honorary THAT GUY because his playoff performances regularly exceed his regular season performances and the 2020 Heat would have been the only finals contender over the past 35+ years without a THAT GUY otherwise.

(By the way, if you get the #1 pick in the lottery, the odds for getting THAT GUY jump to 26.7% -- which of course means that even the #1 pick turns out to be THAT GUY only about once every four years.)
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I’m really intrigued by this line of thinking.

Just out of curiosity, who all are the THAT GUY that you identified?

I’d like to look at a couple of other things as well and see if there’s any other interesting trends. . .
 
HeatCheck said:
You need to question if a team is constantly angling to get a good draft pick but the Jazz have never been that team.

Guys like Simmons, Zion, Cade, Wiggins seemed way over hyped. I recall preferring Ja over Zion in the '19 draft.

Victor is just a totally different animal.
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The only player on there who was overhyped was Wiggins.

And with Wiggins there is a legitimate argument that his "failures" were more organizational.

Simmons/Zion/Cade have all been really good. Zion has been injured. Simmons seems like he got drafted to the worst possible fit both on the court and off the court. Calling Cade overhyped is weird at this point. Dude is averaging 23-6-5 so far in his 2nd season. Seems pretty good to me.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
How so?

I mean, we really can't say that. We've never seen this guy face his future peers in a sustained competitive environment. The French league more or less sucks compared to the highest level of the NCAA. And the physicality is like 20% of that of the NBA.

Luka Doncic was a Euroleague MVP at age 19. That's what a sure thing looks like.

Victor may become the most overhyped prospect ever.

People had no trouble saying Zion had tons of body-related red flags when he was at Duke, even though he was an absolute force of nature and proved without a shadow of a doubt he was ready for the NBA. Victor hasn't proved anything and has at least as many red flags, but people keep ignoring them because he's "built different" or something.
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I liked Luka too. Point is you needed a top 3 pick to draft him that year. He should've gone #1 if not for the incompetence of 2 front offices.

Occasionally prospects fall thru the cracks. Giannis who came from the Greek League and Jokic from the Adriatic are examples of that. Looking at the ESPN list of the top 10-15 players this season and most of them were drafted fairly high in the lottery. You need a top 10 player to realistically compete for a championship.

Victor has all the skills out to the 3 point line. Blocks shots. Can initiate and bring the ball up the floor. He has size, length, mobility. I watched those Las Vegas games and defensively Gobert came to mind and a bit of KD on offense. You can point at Zion and Chet as reasons not to draft Victor. I wasn't a huge fan of either.

We can discuss the viability of Victor on a fan forum but every GM in the league would likely run to the podium to draft Victor #1.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only player on there who was overhyped was Wiggins.

And with Wiggins there is a legitimate argument that his "failures" were more organizational.

Simmons/Zion/Cade have all been really good. Zion has been injured. Simmons seems like he got drafted to the worst possible fit both on the court and off the court. Calling Cade overhyped is weird at this point. Dude is averaging 23-6-5 so far in his 2nd season. Seems pretty good to me.
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I like all those guys fine but in hindsight I'd take Jaylen Brown/Morant/Mobley over Simmons/Zion/Cade in a redraft. The media was overhyping them as saviors for over a year before the draft.
 
In today's game, THAT GUY normally fits one of just a few archetypes:
(A) Big wing with athleticism, ball skills, three-level scoring and some on-ball creation (e.g., Lebron, Kawhi, Tatum, Paul George); Luka is almost in this category, but he's not athletic enough to completely break a defense on his own. He needs a well-spaced floor with multiple kick-out options.
(B) Big, skilled guard with the highest level of functional athleticism (e.g., Kobe, TMac, Penny, DWade). Ja Morant might be close to this category, but I don't think he's quite big enough.
(C) Super long, athletic big forward with some handle, passing and driving skills (e.g., Giannis, KD, AD, Garnett, Amare, Wembanyama probably fits this category as an outlier)

As much as we love creative, athletic guards in the 6' - 6'3" range, they don't normally lead a team all the way. These players are usually the ideal #2 option (e.g., Kyrie, Dame, Rose, AI, Mitchell, etc.) Steph Curry is an exception because he might be the highest gravity shooter ever, combined with really solid passing and playmaking.

In this draft, the guys who fit one of these archetypes and have at least some foundation to be THAT GUY would include: Wembanyama(C), Amen Thompson(B), GG Jackson(C), maybe Ausar Thompson(B), maybe Jarace Walker (fringe A) and maybe Baba Miller (Fringe C).

Other than that, this draft has a bunch of quality players who have some potential to be the #2 guy: Scoot, Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore, Dariq Whitehead, Keyonte George, Arthur Kaluma, etc.

Ultimately, I think this draft is all about Wembanyama and the Thompson Twins, unless GG Jackson looks like Baby Giannis.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
In today's game, THAT GUY normally fits one of just a few archetypes:
(A) Big wing with athleticism, ball skills, three-level scoring and some on-ball creation (e.g., Lebron, Kawhi, Tatum, Paul George); Luka is almost in this category, but he's not athletic enough to completely break a defense on his own. He needs a well-spaced floor with multiple kick-out options.
(B) Big, skilled guard with the highest level of functional athleticism (e.g., Kobe, TMac, Penny, DWade). Ja Morant might be close to this category, but I don't think he's quite big enough.
(C) Super long, athletic big forward with some handle, passing and driving skills (e.g., Giannis, KD, AD, Garnett, Amare, Wembanyama probably fits this category as an outlier)

As much as we love creative, athletic guards in the 6' - 6'3" range, they don't normally lead a team all the way. These players are usually the ideal #2 option (e.g., Kyrie, Dame, Rose, AI, Mitchell, etc.) Steph Curry is an exception because he might be the highest gravity shooter ever, combined with really solid passing and playmaking.

In this draft, the guys who fit one of these archetypes and have at least some foundation to be THAT GUY would include: Wembanyama(C), Amen Thompson(B), GG Jackson(C), maybe Ausar Thompson(B), maybe Jarace Walker (fringe A) and maybe Baba Miller (Fringe C).

Other than that, this draft has a bunch of quality players who have some potential to be the #2 guy: Scoot, Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore, Dariq Whitehead, Keyonte George, Arthur Kaluma, etc.
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THAT GUY is not a physical thing. It's more mentality and approach. Hard worker and desire to be the best. A true psycho
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
THAT GUY is not a physical thing. It's more mentality and approach. Hard worker and desire to be the best. A true psycho
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Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
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Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
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Obviously it was because Kawhi has bigger hands.

Tons of misses in the lottery but the hit % on franchise guys is much higher too.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Sure, I agree, but I'm just saying you cant look at it through a purely physical lense.

Like what separated Aminu from Paul George? Why did Aminu go higher than both George and Hayward?

Aminu was a high level athlete with a near 7'4 wingspan. Sounds like an ideal prospect.

What separated Kawhi Leonard from Al-Aminu? They have damn near identical physical measurements and put up damn near identical college stats in damn near identical roles. Obviously as fans we dont have access to mentally evaluate and interview players like this, nor do we get to see them in their day to day lives, but that is what interest me in terms of being "that guy".
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Aminu couldn't shoot and had almost no ball skills. He was probably never going to be an All Star. What I'm saying is that BOTH elite physical tools AND elite skills are needed to be able to create enough impact to be THAT GUY. That said, the mental side of the equation is also truly underrated. I agree with you there. Gobert became what he is because he has real competitive drive and some mental toughness. Hayward had it too before his injuries. Not everyone has the drive to maximize their abilities.
 
HeatCheck said:
Obviously it was because Kawhi has bigger hands.

Tons of misses in the lottery but the hit % on franchise guys is much higher too.
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Kawhi worked hard and really maximized the tools and talent he had. You could probably say the same about Karl Malone for that matter. Kawhi had a prototypical 6'7", 225-lb body with long arms, huge hands and solid functional athleticism. He was more skilled and had more shooting touch than people realized. He maxed out his potential. Steal Rate is also sometimes a leading indicator of the functional athleticism needed to be a star.
 
Coach Ellis said:
I’m really intrigued by this line of thinking.

Just out of curiosity, who all are the THAT GUY that you identified?

I’d like to look at a couple of other things as well and see if there’s any other interesting trends. . .
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Here's my list:
  • Shaquille O'Neal
  • Allen Iverson
  • Tim Duncan
  • LeBron James
  • Dwight Howard
  • Derrick Rose
  • Blake Griffin
  • Anthony Davis
  • Jason Kidd
  • Alonzo Mourning
  • Gary Payton
  • Kevin Durant
  • James Harden
  • Joel Embiid
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Luka Doncic
  • Chris Paul
  • Russell Westbrook
  • Kevin Garnett
  • Dwyane Wade
  • Damian Lillard
  • Stephen Curry
  • Tracy McGrady
  • Dirk Nowitzki
  • Amar'e Stoudemire
  • Paul George
  • Kobe Bryant
  • Devin Booker
  • Steve Nash
  • Kawhi Leonard
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • Tony Parker
  • Jimmy Butler
  • Nikola Jokic
  • Marc Gasol
  • Ben Wallace
 
By the way, for anyone curious, here's what happens to the THAT GUY odds if you change the odds of Victor becoming THAT GUY from the historical 26.7% to 66.7% (I don't think it's fair to anyone to go higher than that, given injury and other possibilities):

1st (worst record) =16.8%
2nd = 16.3%
3rd = 15.9%
4th = 14.6%
5th = 13.1%
6th = 11.6%
7th = 10.4%
8th = 9.2%
9th = 7.9%
10th = 6.5%
11th = 5.2%
12th = 4.7%
13th = 4.3%
14th = 3.8%
15th = 3.3%
 
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Aminu couldn't shoot and had almost no ball skills. He was probably never going to be an All Star. What I'm saying is that BOTH elite physical tools AND elite skills are needed to be able to create enough impact to be THAT GUY. That said, the mental side of the equation is also truly underrated. I agree with you there. Gobert became what he is because he has real competitive drive and some mental toughness. Hayward had it too before his injuries. Not everyone has the drive to maximize their abilities.
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Yep. I had Paul George as a top 3 pick that year and couldn't believe he dropped to the pacers. It seemed like a no brainer that he was a better prospect than Aminu. The same goes for Hayward. The gap in skill Aminu and those other guys was night and day.
 
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