Honestly I would add a lot more guys that list.
Grant Hill
Arenas
Ray Allen
John Wall
Kyrie
Deron Williams
Donovan
Gobert
Webber
Melo
Pau
Manu
Beal
Yao
Brand
Roy
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Klay
Vince Carter
Brand
Marion
What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?
- Thread starter idiot
- Start date
Grant Hill
Arenas
Ray Allen
John Wall
Kyrie
Deron Williams
Donovan
Gobert
Webber
Melo
Pau
Manu
Beal
Yao
Brand
Roy
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Klay
Vince Carter
Brand
Marion
Yeah, this is where there's going to be some differences of opinion. To me, although some of these guys you list are very close, none of them are really the player that you can have as the number one option as a title-contender. Most of them could get you to the conference finals as the #1 guy in theory (though most didn't even prove that in reality), but I don't see a clear #1 guy in a finals contender in these names.
Coach Ellis
Well-Known Member
Thank you! I appreciate the follow up.
You missed out on quite a few players my man. Paul Pierce? Kyrie? Pau? Ray Allen?
Those players might not be able to single-handedly win it but they’re vital piece.
Yes, vital pieces, but not first fiddles (in my view). The difference between THAT GUY and really important guys. If we open it up to this level of player, then I think we're saying essentially that Donovan or Rudy would have been enough to have been the centerpiece of a championship team. I don't think they were.
This tells me we need to "tank" (whatever that means) this year.
Let's be honest here, the chances of Utah getting THAT GUY via Free Agency is what.. 0%?
So getting him through the Draft and Trades are the main ways of getting THAT GUY.
Looking at the odds above it tells me you really want to be in that 1st-6th worst range.
Gives you around 8-11% odds which to me is reasonable. Below that and the odds get really low.
That's why I still think we really need to be top 5 bad this year. It's the perfect year to do this with Gobert and Donovan leaving.
I can certainly understand this, even if I don't totally agree with it. It's a close enough call in my mind to easily see how you might be right and I might be wrong.
The way I look at it is these odds show how much luck and good fortune is involved in NBA success (along with wise scouting and team-building, because of course one THAT GUY by himself won't even do the trick).
You could do your best to tank for a decade straight and not wind up with THAT GUY. But if the Jazz end up with a lousy record this year, I won't be complaining.
We already have THAT GUY his name is Lauri Markkanen.
Another thing worth mentioning…getting THAT GUY =\= winning a championship. One of the reasons tanking is overrated IMO is that people will conflate getting THAT GUY and winning a championship.
There are just so many aspects to building a title contender. We focus way too much on the draft and especially where you draft. But again, it is fair to question what we’re gaining by losing THAT GUY who percentage points.
Yeah but the chance of winning without THAT GUY is 0%.
So we have to do whatever it takes to grab THAT GUY.
Whatever it takes, except decreasing your odds at winning a championship. Maximizing losing chances at THAT GUY =\= maximizing championship utility.
Again.. you need to at least have THAT GUY to even be at the table..
Again, maximizing THAT GUY chances =\= maximizing championship chances.
So can we win a Chip without THAT GUY?
Does maximizing THAT GUY chances maximize our chances at winning?
You haven’t answered my question….
Well, it’s only happened one time in NBA history so the odds aren’t exactly in your favor.
You didn’t answer mine either and deflected with this question as if it proves something. You repeating the question is proving my point. Getting that guy and winning the championship are two different things. Stop acting like this question is an actual response to my initial point that you responded to. It’s non sequitur.
Truth is, tunneling in on draft position is not the correct way to do things. If you believe that we must do whatever it takes to maximize draft position, than you must also believe that it would be a good move to waive Lauri Markannen this instant. Lauri actively decreases our chances of getting THAT GUY through the draft.
Even if getting that guy is the top priority, getting that guy is not the only thing that matters.